http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/5343911/
WASHINGTON - Polls may show the presidential race in a dead heat, but
for a small band of academics who use scientific formulas to predict
elections, President Bush is on his way to a sizable win.
....Most of these academics are predicting Bush, bolstered by robust
economic growth, will win between 53 and 58 percent of the votes cast
for him and his Democratic opponent John Kerry.
Their track record for calling election outcomes months in advance has
often been surprisingly accurate. In 1988, the models projected Bush's
father, former President George Bush, would win even though
Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis enjoyed a double digit poll leads
that summer.
And in 1996, one model came within a tenth of a percentage point of
Clinton's actual vote share.
....Blaming it on Gore campaign
The forecasters chalk up the 2000 error to Gore's campaign, which
distanced itself from the Clinton record. All the models assume the
candidates will run reasonably competent campaigns, said Thomas
Holbrook, a professor at the University of Wisconsin at Milwaukee.
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