Science > Abortion > Now that the "Debating Season" has ended, is the enthusiasm of Kerry supporters fading?
| Topic: |
Science > Abortion |
| User: |
"Gactimus" |
| Date: |
17 Oct 2004 07:54:56 PM |
| Object: |
Now that the "Debating Season" has ended, is the enthusiasm of Kerry supporters fading? |
Now that the "debating season" has concluded and the campaign is entering
its final phase, many of you who have been paying attention to the
national polls may have noticed that there has been a slight swing back in
Bush's favor. I have been watching this closely and there are two points I
see represented in these poll numbers which I think indicate that the
burst of enthusiasm among Kerry supporters that followed from his
performance in the debates has now peaked and we are settling down into a
race which, though still tight, gives the clear advantage to President
Bush.
I believe that in the final analysis we can conclude that John Kerry
benefited from giving a focus for "the Bush haters" during the debates,
when he could directly confront and, at times, lecture the President in a
way that gave voice to the hard core Bush opposition, but that this moment
has passed and two factors are now weakening Kerry's candidacy, which are
reflected in his poll numbers.
The first is that Kerry - and his supporters - can no longer look forward
to the opportunity to face President Bush directly and vent their anger.
The second, and potentially more damaging for Kerry, is that the large
number of anti-war voters who were looking to his candidacy to voice their
views now may be reassessing their attitudes, a fact that is reflected in
both the internal numbers of these recent polls and in the very slight
rise in the percentages you can see for Ralph Nader. In spite of Kerry's
repeated insistence that he has had only "one policy" with regard to Iraq,
the truth is that he made a choice in September to argue that he would see
the occupation through to a successful conclusion and he managed to avoid
alienating anti-war voters during the debates by confronting President
Bush directly. With the conclusion of the debates, some of these voters
will look elsewhere, which must cause Kerry and his advisors great
concern.
Before going any further it may help to examine the most recent national
polls on the presidential election:
Current National Polls of Likely Voters as of October 17
Poll Bush Kerry Nader
---------- ---- ----- -----
ABC News/Washington Post 50 46 2
Gallup 52 44 1
Zogby 46 44 1
Time Magazine 48 47 3
Newsweek Magazine 50 44 1
TIPP 48 45 2
There are two things to note in the above listing of national polls. The
first is that all of them give Bush an edge that ranges from one to eight
points, depending upon which poll you examine. This is quite different
than what we were seeing during the "debating season" when some of the
important polls put Kerry ahead or dead even with the President. And I
could add that if you were to view the internal numbers on some of these
polls you would see that, in direct contrast to what we were witnessing
right after the first presidential debate, Kerry's "Likely Voter"
percentages are below his "Registered Voter" numbers, which is a complete
turnaround from just a couple of weeks ago. Just to mention two of these
polls by way of example, both Gallup and Newsweek have Kerry at 46% among
"Registered Voters" and 44% among "Likely Voters," while Bush's support
increases when you go from "Likely" to "Registered," a trend that is
common to most of the other polls as well. Clearly the enthusiasm for
Kerry's candidacy has dropped over the last couple of weeks.
But the second thing to note about the above numbers is, in my opinion,
even bigger. Notice that three of the polls have Ralph Nader above 1%. I
cannot recall any of the major polls having Nader's numbers above 1% while
we were in the midst of the presidential debates - I even remember one
Zogby poll had Nader at 0% - and this may be a second indicator of waning
support for Kerry. The anti-war voters did not get what they wanted from
Kerry in the debates and, even though he may have picked up some undecideds
in the middle of the political spectrum by making a strong argument for
seeing the war in Iraq through to a successful conclusion - put aside your
impressions of the conviction with which you may believe he made his case
for a moment - he can no longer hang onto the most committed anti-war
voters now that his chance to confront Bush directly has passed. This is a
serious obstacle to Kerry's prospects for success
right now.
So what does all of this mean for the rest of the campaign? For President
Bush it's pretty simple, stay on message and concentrate on turning out
the vote. But for Kerry it's different. He must try to reinfuse his
candidacy with the enthusiasm it had during the debates and address the
"Nader Factor," which is still important in a number of the battleground
states. So I expect to see the following from Kerry over the next couple
of weeks:
1. Kerry will try to put the debates front-and-center again, possibly even
calling for another debate. He won't get it, but he needs to reach for it
anyway.
2. Kerry will have to try to convince Nader to drop out and end his
candidacy. This may even go so far as a "Kerry - Nader Summit."
3. If Kerry cannot convince Nader to drop out of the race he will have to
address domestic issues that are important to Nader voters, such as the
Environment, drilling in ANWAR, alternative energy, and more. Even though
this will deflect attention from his Iraq policy he must do it.
4. When addressing the issue of Iraq Kerry will have to speak about getting
the troops home more than he has recently. We all understand the problems
this will create for him but he must try to keep anti-war voters behind
him.
5. Kerry will begin to take aim at "vulnerable" groups within Bush's
demographic base of support, such as seniors and women, and try to instill
fear within them so as to weaken Bush's standing with these voters. This
is essentially an attempt to weaken the enthusiasm of Bush's base. We are
already seeing this with the privatization of Social Security ads, expect
him to return to guns and more in the days to come. This will take him
"off message" on Iraq, so it must be recognized as a sign of
weakness.
6. Kerry will try to reinvigorate his base by recalling their attention to
the Florida recount and crying out that the Republicans want to suppress
the vote among African-Americans and others. We've also seen this tactic
employed already, but it has the potential to create an even greater
backlash among the majority of Americans who found fault with the tactics
the Democrats employed to try to win Florida in 2000.
No, we cannot claim that this race is in the bag for Bush by any means.
But Kerry is facing problems that are far worse than those confronting the
President at this moment. Let's hope it stays that way.
.
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| User: "Saved By Jesus!!!!" |
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| Title: Save Marriage Now! |
17 Oct 2004 08:27:03 PM |
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***** "*****" Cheney is a traitor to the Republican cause.
His daughter, Lynn Cheney, is a full-fledged lesbian, a
member of the homosexual conspiracy. The homosexuals,
thanks to "*****" Cheney, are literally a heartbeat away
from control the most powerful nation on earth.
Do you want your sons feminized and your daughters taught
that they're not a "Real" women unless they have an abortion?
Do you want America to become a socialist country?
Do you want homosexual acts taught in public schools?
Do you want the Pledge to our flag, recited by your children,
changed to "...one nation, under goddess..."?
Say NO to ***** Cheney. Say NO to the destruction of family
values. Say NO to a national Pagan religion.
As a Christian, I can't ask you to vote Democratic. That would
be too much. But, as a Christian, it is your responsibility to
not vote for any Presidential ticket that includes ***** "*****"
Cheney and the homosexual agenda. Vote for a Christian third
party candidate, or boycott the election all together.
But, let me make this clear:
If you vote for any ticket that includes ***** Cheney you will
be casting your vote for the Devil. You will be casting your
.
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| User: "The other Donald" |
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| Title: Re: Save Marriage Now! |
18 Oct 2004 10:39:34 PM |
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"Saved By Jesus!!!!" <jaytem@gaydar.co.uk> wrote in message
news:g9adneGb6KP7h-7cRVn-vg@comcast.com...
Save marriage?
From what?
If you motherfuckers were so concerned with saving marriage, you'd be
pushing for a ban on divorce. Your current "argument" is nothing more than a
laughable disguise for your unmitigated hatred for gays, and "Sanctity of
Marriage" is simply the fundy euphemism for "bigot."
--
-Donald in Austin
AA #2104
Apatriot #22
Atheist FF/EMT
.....and ordained minister
Stork pin recipient: May 1, 2003 -Madelyn
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| User: "Bethe Blasienz" |
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| Title: Re: Save Marriage Now! |
18 Oct 2004 07:16:40 AM |
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From: "Saved By Jesus!!!!"
Hmmmm, saved by Jesus my *****.........what you wrote smacks of bigotry and
racism and downright hatred, there is no way on god's green earth that you
have been saved by a higher authority. God taught compassion and
tolerance------I gather you do not know the meaning of those words due to what
you wrote. A pity you cannot use your brain for more productive areas of your
life. The way you wrote what you wrote is so sinful and so
judgemental...........such a pity.
Bethe Blasienz
Bryan, Texas USA
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