| Topic: |
Science > Abortion |
| User: |
"Gactimus" |
| Date: |
25 Oct 2004 11:26:07 AM |
| Object: |
The Presidential Campaign is Over |
This election is over because fatigued voters want it to be over.
Voters are tired of the overheated rhetoric, of the Michael Moores and the
Swifties. They're tired of the half dozen daily tracking polls. They're
tired of being told that tens of thousands of lawyers will make a close
election last forever.
This has been the longest general election campaign ever. Since Kerry
became the Democrat-nominee-apparent in February, voters have been treated
to a relentless diet of political hysteria. There was so much campaign
news that major events became mere blips.
The conventions and debates were the candidates' last chance to break
through the clutter. In the final debate, Kerry failed to deliver a
knockout punch and came off as a pessimist. Voters made up their minds.
Like good Americans, they've decided to vote for President Bush
Since then, the polls have shown a steady 2-8 point Bush lead. All the
stories since then - Mary-Cheney, Stolen-Honor, Teresa-Real-Job,
Ashley's-Story - have been unable to move the numbers.
At this point, virtually no events will move numbers. Not even an October
Surprise. Just about the only votes still up for grabs are the Landslide
Faction - those voters who're determined to avoid another close election
by giving the likely winner a clear majority. Those voters can only help
President Bush.
This election is over. And it's about time too.
.
|
|
| User: "John Dorn" |
|
| Title: Re: The Presidential Campaign is Over |
25 Oct 2004 12:24:10 PM |
|
|
Gactimus <gactimus@xrs.net> wrote:
This election is over because fatigued voters want it to be over.
Voters are tired of the overheated rhetoric, of the Michael Moores and the
Swifties. They're tired of the half dozen daily tracking polls. They're
tired of being told that tens of thousands of lawyers will make a close
election last forever.
This has been the longest general election campaign ever. Since Kerry
became the Democrat-nominee-apparent in February, voters have been treated
to a relentless diet of political hysteria. There was so much campaign
news that major events became mere blips.
The conventions and debates were the candidates' last chance to break
through the clutter. In the final debate, Kerry failed to deliver a
knockout punch and came off as a pessimist. Voters made up their minds.
Like good Americans, they've decided to vote for President Bush
Since then, the polls have shown a steady 2-8 point Bush lead. All the
stories since then - Mary-Cheney, Stolen-Honor, Teresa-Real-Job,
Ashley's-Story - have been unable to move the numbers.
At this point, virtually no events will move numbers. Not even an October
Surprise. Just about the only votes still up for grabs are the Landslide
Faction - those voters who're determined to avoid another close election
by giving the likely winner a clear majority. Those voters can only help
President Bush.
This election is over. And it's about time too.
yes, everything is trending towards Kerry. Which is good news for all of
us. Early voting is 80%+ for Kerry which is a bit shocking -- we still
could see a landslide election for Kerry. So it's going to be exciting
if that happens.
.
|
|
|
| User: "Snit" |
|
| Title: Re: The Presidential Campaign is Over |
25 Oct 2004 02:29:36 PM |
|
|
"John Dorn" <nospam@dorne.com> wrote in post
nospam-45015E.11241025102004@typhoon3.uswest.net on 10/25/04 10:24 AM:
Gactimus <gactimus@xrs.net> wrote:
This election is over because fatigued voters want it to be over.
Voters are tired of the overheated rhetoric, of the Michael Moores and the
Swifties. They're tired of the half dozen daily tracking polls. They're
tired of being told that tens of thousands of lawyers will make a close
election last forever.
This has been the longest general election campaign ever. Since Kerry
became the Democrat-nominee-apparent in February, voters have been treated
to a relentless diet of political hysteria. There was so much campaign
news that major events became mere blips.
The conventions and debates were the candidates' last chance to break
through the clutter. In the final debate, Kerry failed to deliver a
knockout punch and came off as a pessimist. Voters made up their minds.
Like good Americans, they've decided to vote for President Bush
Since then, the polls have shown a steady 2-8 point Bush lead. All the
stories since then - Mary-Cheney, Stolen-Honor, Teresa-Real-Job,
Ashley's-Story - have been unable to move the numbers.
At this point, virtually no events will move numbers. Not even an October
Surprise. Just about the only votes still up for grabs are the Landslide
Faction - those voters who're determined to avoid another close election
by giving the likely winner a clear majority. Those voters can only help
President Bush.
This election is over. And it's about time too.
yes, everything is trending towards Kerry. Which is good news for all of
us. Early voting is 80%+ for Kerry which is a bit shocking -- we still
could see a landslide election for Kerry. So it's going to be exciting
if that happens.
Do you have support for this 80% figure? Would love to see it.
--
If A = B and B = C, then A = C, except where void or prohibited by law.
Roy Santoro, Psycho Proverb Zone (http://smallurl.com/?i=15235)
.
|
|
|
| User: "Andrealphus" |
|
| Title: Re: The Presidential Campaign is Over |
25 Oct 2004 04:37:56 PM |
|
|
Snit <SNIT@CABLE0NE.NET.INVALID> wrote:
"John Dorn" <nospam@dorne.com> wrote in post
nospam-45015E.11241025102004@typhoon3.uswest.net on 10/25/04 10:24 AM:
Gactimus <gactimus@xrs.net> wrote:
This election is over because fatigued voters want it to be over.
Voters are tired of the overheated rhetoric, of the Michael Moores
and the Swifties. They're tired of the half dozen daily tracking
polls. They're tired of being told that tens of thousands of
lawyers will make a close election last forever.
This has been the longest general election campaign ever. Since
Kerry became the Democrat-nominee-apparent in February, voters have
been treated to a relentless diet of political hysteria. There was
so much campaign news that major events became mere blips.
The conventions and debates were the candidates' last chance to
break through the clutter. In the final debate, Kerry failed to
deliver a knockout punch and came off as a pessimist. Voters made
up their minds. Like good Americans, they've decided to vote for
President Bush
Since then, the polls have shown a steady 2-8 point Bush lead. All
the stories since then - Mary-Cheney, Stolen-Honor, Teresa-Real-Job,
Ashley's-Story - have been unable to move the numbers.
At this point, virtually no events will move numbers. Not even an
October Surprise. Just about the only votes still up for grabs are
the Landslide Faction - those voters who're determined to avoid
another close election by giving the likely winner a clear
majority. Those voters can only help President Bush.
This election is over. And it's about time too.
yes, everything is trending towards Kerry. Which is good news for
all of us. Early voting is 80%+ for Kerry which is a bit shocking --
we still could see a landslide election for Kerry. So it's going to
be exciting if that happens.
Do you have support for this 80% figure? Would love to see it.
It would depend on where the early voting numbers his is referring to were
taken. That's certainly not a nationwide polling.
--
Brigham Young on interracial marriage:
"Shall I tell you the law of God in regard to the African race? If the
white man who belongs to the chosen seed mixes his blood with the seed
of Cain, the penalty, under the law of God, is death on the spot. This
will always be so."
.
|
|
|
|
| User: "Circe" |
|
| Title: Re: The Presidential Campaign is Over |
25 Oct 2004 03:06:23 PM |
|
|
Snit wrote:
"John Dorn" <nospam@dorne.com> wrote in post
yes, everything is trending towards Kerry. Which is good news for
all of us. Early voting is 80%+ for Kerry which is a bit shocking
-- we still could see a landslide election for Kerry. So it's
going to be exciting
if that happens.
Do you have support for this 80% figure? Would love to see it.
You and me both!
I keep saying that if both the Red Sox and Kerry win, I may have to revise
my position vis-a-vis the existence of a deity.
--
Be well, Barbara
Mom to Sin (Vernon, 2), Misery (Aurora, 5), and the Rising Son (Julian, 7)
This week's suggested Bush-Cheney Campaign Slogan:
"Why change horsemen in mid-apocalypse?"
All opinions expressed in this post are well-reasoned and insightful.
Needless to say, they are not those of my Internet Service Provider, its
other subscribers or lackeys. Anyone who says otherwise is itchin' for a
fight. -- with apologies to Michael Feldman
.
|
|
|
|
|
| User: "Gactimus" |
|
| Title: Re: The Presidential Campaign is Over |
25 Oct 2004 04:16:06 PM |
|
|
John Dorn <nospam@dorne.com> wrote in
news:nospam-45015E.11241025102004@typhoon3.uswest.net:
Gactimus <gactimus@xrs.net> wrote:
This election is over because fatigued voters want it to be over.
Voters are tired of the overheated rhetoric, of the Michael Moores and
the Swifties. They're tired of the half dozen daily tracking polls.
They're tired of being told that tens of thousands of lawyers will make
a close election last forever.
This has been the longest general election campaign ever. Since Kerry
became the Democrat-nominee-apparent in February, voters have been
treated to a relentless diet of political hysteria. There was so much
campaign news that major events became mere blips.
The conventions and debates were the candidates' last chance to break
through the clutter. In the final debate, Kerry failed to deliver a
knockout punch and came off as a pessimist. Voters made up their minds.
Like good Americans, they've decided to vote for President Bush
Since then, the polls have shown a steady 2-8 point Bush lead. All the
stories since then - Mary-Cheney, Stolen-Honor, Teresa-Real-Job,
Ashley's-Story - have been unable to move the numbers.
At this point, virtually no events will move numbers. Not even an
October Surprise. Just about the only votes still up for grabs are the
Landslide Faction - those voters who're determined to avoid another
close election by giving the likely winner a clear majority. Those
voters can only help President Bush.
This election is over. And it's about time too.
yes, everything is trending towards Kerry. Which is good news for all of
us. Early voting is 80%+ for Kerry which is a bit shocking -- we still
could see a landslide election for Kerry. So it's going to be exciting
if that happens.
Provide the source for your 80% figure or admit that you're full of *****.
.
|
|
|
|
|
| User: "Bob LeChevalier" |
|
| Title: Re: The Presidential Campaign is Over |
25 Oct 2004 10:03:51 PM |
|
|
Gactimus <gactimus@xrs.net> wrote:
This election is over because fatigued voters want it to be over.
Voters are tired of the overheated rhetoric, of the Michael Moores and the
Swifties. They're tired of the half dozen daily tracking polls. They're
tired of being told that tens of thousands of lawyers will make a close
election last forever.
This has been the longest general election campaign ever. Since Kerry
became the Democrat-nominee-apparent in February, voters have been treated
to a relentless diet of political hysteria. There was so much campaign
news that major events became mere blips.
The conventions and debates were the candidates' last chance to break
through the clutter. In the final debate, Kerry failed to deliver a
knockout punch and came off as a pessimist. Voters made up their minds.
Like good Americans, they've decided to vote for President Bush
Don't count your chickens. Bush is going down.
lojbab
--
lojbab
Bob LeChevalier, Founder, The Logical Language Group
(Opinions are my own; I do not speak for the organization.)
Artificial language Loglan/Lojban: http://www.lojban.org
.
|
|
|
| User: "forge" |
|
| Title: Re: The Presidential Campaign is Over |
25 Oct 2004 11:24:29 PM |
|
|
Gacky said:
The conventions and debates were the candidates' last chance to break
through the clutter. In the final debate, Kerry failed to deliver a
knockout punch and came off as a pessimist.
Kerry came off as a pessimist; Bush came off as someone living in some
bizarre parallel universe where everything's OK in Iraq even though 50
Iraqi security force trainees just got lined up and shot in the back of
the head by a group of infiltrators.
.
|
|
|
| User: "Ex-Republican" |
|
| Title: Re: The Presidential Campaign is Over |
25 Oct 2004 11:27:31 PM |
|
|
"forge" <forge@diespammers.youneedageek.com> wrote in message
news:forge-20E37C.00242926102004@comcast.dca.giganews.com...
Gacky said:
The conventions and debates were the candidates' last chance to break
through the clutter. In the final debate, Kerry failed to deliver a
knockout punch and came off as a pessimist.
Kerry came off as a pessimist; Bush came off as someone living in some
bizarre parallel universe where everything's OK in Iraq even though 50
Iraqi security force trainees just got lined up and shot in the back of
the head by a group of infiltrators.
i think the americans should release saddam hussein and let him restore
order to his country. i'm sure the same proportion of iraqis would support
him as dipshit americans who support bush.
.
|
|
|
| User: "MrPepper11" |
|
| Title: Re: The Presidential Campaign is Over |
28 Oct 2004 12:13:50 AM |
|
|
"Ex-Republican" <not@gop.com> wrote in message news:<2u621iF25pp58U1@uni-berlin.de>...
i think the americans should release saddam hussein and let him restore
order to his country. i'm sure the same proportion of iraqis would support
him as dipshit americans who support bush.
Saddam Hussein was the best thing that happened to Iraq. He was a
beastly ruler, but a good ruler of beasts.
Make sure George W. Bush is history on November 2nd.
Bush has fallen victim to his own hubris
In the end, US voters will not be frightened into becoming a nation
that disdains decency
Sidney Blumenthal
October 28, 2004
The unmaking of the president 2004 began on September 11, 2001. By
September 10, George Bush's poll numbers had reached 50%, the lowest
of any president at that early point in his tenure. Having lost the
popular majority in the 2000 election and being delivered the
presidency by a five-to-four Supreme Court decision, Bush operated as
though he had triumphed with a full-throated mandate.
From the start, Bush ran a government based on secrecy, handed over
the departments and agencies to more than 100 industry executives and
lobbyists appointed to key positions, and exhibited belligerence
towards anyone who raised a question about his right-wing imperatives.
His bullying prompted Republican Senator James Jeffords of Vermont to
cross the aisle, throwing control of the Senate to the Democrats. In
only months, Bush's incompetence and arrogance had induced paralysis.
He had already run his course.
After September 11, as his poll numbers soared, Bush wrapped his
radical agenda in the cloak of commander-in-chief. Now he would
attempt to implement Karl Rove's ambition of a one-party state and the
neo-conservatives' plan for an American imperium. Bush believed he had
permanent political capital to forge a factional partisan political
realignment. Afghanistan, almost unanimously supported in the country,
solidified his popularity and certainty.
The conservative wish-list came off the shelf. Civil liberties were
curtailed in the Patriot Act, extremists were nominated as federal
judges, environmental protections ravaged, and resources shifted from
Afghanistan to prepare for Bush's ultimate objective - Iraq.
The mid-term elections of 2002 ratified Bush's hyper-radicalism. In
the face of the "war president", the congressional Democratic
leadership demonstrated political ineptitude, division and confusion,
and the Republicans tarred them as unpatriotic. Bush's belief in his
inevitability became more intoxicating.
After the Iraq "cakewalk", Bush landed on an aircraft carrier in
uniform, proclaiming: "Mission accomplished." At home, he encountered
no checks and balances from Congress. The fourth estate conducted
press conferences as though suffering aphasia.
The testimony of Richard Clarke, former counterterrorism chief, that
the Bush administration had been indifferent to terrorism, shattered
the atmosphere of silent obedience. His truth-telling encouraged the
revolt of professionals throughout the national security bureaucracies
- the CIA and other intelligence services, the military, and the State
Department. Then the rationales for the war crumbled when no WMD were
found and the "cakewalk" turned into a bloody quagmire.
Suddenly, the Democrats came to life, providing a forum and focus for
outrage against Bush's policies. At first, the movement gathered
around Howard Dean, but with his stumbles he was not the man for the
mission. Bush had counted on the Democrats once again picking an
earnest but easily defeated candidate, but they turned instead to John
Kerry.
From March and through the early summer, Bush's campaign spent more
than $100M in negative commercials trying to disqualify Kerry. Yet
Kerry remained even, and with the Democratic convention pulled
slightly ahead.
In a typical Bush operation, he outsourced the smears to a group that
filled the airwaves with lies about Kerry's genuine record of war
heroism in Vietnam. The media, mostly cable TV, acted as conduit for
Bush's falsehoods, and Kerry was tarnished. At the Republican
convention, speaker after speaker stressed the Democrats' effeminacy -
"girly men" - and hailed Bush as all-wise commander-in-chief. Once
again, Bush believed he was impregnable.
All he had to do was finesse the debates. But he was humiliated in all
three. Kerry, however, possessed clarity, intelligence and maturity.
Bush's response was a new ad, featuring wolves about to leap through
the TV screen. But the projection of fear only exposed his
vulnerability.
The "war president" has fallen victim to his own hubris. As Thucydides
wrote: "To conceive extravagant pretensions from success in war is to
forget how hollow is the confidence by which you are elated. For if
many ill-conceived plans have succeeded through the still greater
fatuity of an opponent, many more, apparently well laid, have on the
contrary ended in disgrace."
Meanwhile, the people's own mobilisation has produced new voter
registrations in the millions, and hundreds of thousands of activists
have spread in the last week throughout the battleground states. The
Republicans desperately cast out ploys to suppress these voters, many
of them African-American. In the end, the American people refuse to be
frightened into becoming an unrecognisable nation that disdains, as
the Declaration of Independence said, "a decent respect to the
opinions of mankind".
------
Sidney Blumenthal, a former senior adviser to President Clinton, is
Washington bureau chief of salon.com
.
|
|
|
|
|
| User: "Matty" |
|
| Title: Re: The Presidential Campaign is Over |
26 Oct 2004 12:20:01 AM |
|
|
On 2004-10-26 14:24:29 +1000, forge <forge@diespammers.youneedageek.com> said:
Gacky said:
The conventions and debates were the candidates' last chance to break
through the clutter. In the final debate, Kerry failed to deliver a
knockout punch and came off as a pessimist.
Kerry came off as a pessimist; Bush came off as someone living in some
bizarre parallel universe where everything's OK in Iraq even though 50
Iraqi security force trainees just got lined up and shot in the back of
the head by a group of infiltrators.
Bush of course will spin it saying "no, they weren't killed, they were
lying down, and those loving al-qaeda linked militants thought it would
be a nice idea to give each of the soldiers a massage with some bullets
from an AK47.
Matty
--
"If a nation could not prosper without the enjoyment of perfect liberty
and perfect justice, there is not in the world a nation which could
ever have prospered." - The Wealth of Nations, Book IV, Chapter IX
"Many forms of Government have been tried, and will be tried in this
world of sin and woe. No one pretends that democracy is perfect or
all-wise. Indeed, it has been said that democracy is the worst form of
government except all those other forms that have been tried from time
to time." - Sir Winston Churchill, Hansard, November 11, 1947
.
|
|
|
| User: "Dave Simpson" |
|
| Title: Re: The Presidential Campaign is Over |
27 Oct 2004 04:02:15 PM |
|
|
Matty wrote:
Bush of course will spin it saying "no, they weren't killed, they were
lying down, and those loving al-qaeda linked militants thought it would
be a nice idea to give each of the soldiers a massage with some bullets
from an AK47.
The only people who speak nicely about the terrorists, and defend
them, are liberals and Democrats.
Dave Simpson
.
|
|
|
| User: "kurttrail" |
|
| Title: Re: The Presidential Campaign is Over |
27 Oct 2004 04:25:35 PM |
|
|
Dave Simpson wrote:
Matty wrote:
Bush of course will spin it saying "no, they weren't killed, they
were lying down, and those loving al-qaeda linked militants thought
it would be a nice idea to give each of the soldiers a massage with
some bullets from an AK47.
The only people who speak nicely about the terrorists, and defend
them, are liberals and Democrats.
Who spoke "nicely about the terrorists?"
--
Peace!
Kurt
Self-anointed Moderator
microscum.pubic.windowsexp.gonorrhea
http://microscum.com
"Trustworthy Computing" is only another example of an Oxymoron!
"Produkt-Aktivierung macht frei!"
.
|
|
|
|
| User: "Shawn Hearn" |
|
| Title: Re: The Presidential Campaign is Over |
29 Oct 2004 11:20:56 AM |
|
|
In article <23e7f86e.0410271302.5e17e79d@posting.google.com>,
(Dave Simpson) wrote:
Matty wrote:
Bush of course will spin it saying "no, they weren't killed, they were
lying down, and those loving al-qaeda linked militants thought it would
be a nice idea to give each of the soldiers a massage with some bullets
from an AK47.
The only people who speak nicely about the terrorists, and defend
them, are liberals and Democrats.
Wrong, but you Bush ***** kissers seem to have trouble dealing
with facts. Asking you to prove your statement is probably futile.
.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| User: "Gray Shockley" |
|
| Title: Re: The Presidential Campaign is Over |
25 Oct 2004 11:10:30 PM |
|
|
On Mon, 25 Oct 2004 22:03:51 -0500, Bob LeChevalier wrote
(in message <5jfrn0pkdpjeatnhei3ht7l2kefp9o66bq@4ax.com>):
Don't count your chickens. Bush is going down.
I can hope but I'm certainly not /that/ sure.
gray
.
|
|
|
| User: "Snit" |
|
| Title: Re: The Presidential Campaign is Over |
25 Oct 2004 11:28:00 PM |
|
|
"Gray Shockley" <CyberGray@gmail.com> wrote in post
0001HW.BDA3386600521FC512D8B3E0@news.giganews.com on 10/25/04 9:10 PM:
On Mon, 25 Oct 2004 22:03:51 -0500, Bob LeChevalier wrote
(in message <5jfrn0pkdpjeatnhei3ht7l2kefp9o66bq@4ax.com>):
Don't count your chickens. Bush is going down.
I can hope but I'm certainly not /that/ sure.
I think he was thinking of Monica.
--
If A = B and B = C, then A = C, except where void or prohibited by law.
Roy Santoro, Psycho Proverb Zone (http://smallurl.com/?i=15235)
.
|
|
|
|
| User: "Bob LeChevalier" |
|
| Title: Re: The Presidential Campaign is Over |
26 Oct 2004 03:37:41 PM |
|
|
Gray Shockley <CyberGray@gmail.com> wrote:
On Mon, 25 Oct 2004 22:03:51 -0500, Bob LeChevalier wrote
(in message <5jfrn0pkdpjeatnhei3ht7l2kefp9o66bq@4ax.com>):
Don't count your chickens. Bush is going down.
I can hope but I'm certainly not /that/ sure.
The polls have it as a statistical tie. Using the historical trend
that undecideds break more than 2:1 for the challenger breaks that tie
in favor of Kerry. There are several sites doing statistical
simulations using differing assumptions about the undecided vote, but
for the most part they are running at 3:1 odds for Kerry.
And this is not counting the known error in the polls this year, in
that they do not count cell-phone users with no landline. This is a
predominantly younger crowd, normally not all that high in turnout,
but this year likely to be higher than usual. Under 30s are breaking
more than 2:1 in favor of Kerry, making a Kerry victory even more
likely.
But my earlier comment was equally a pun. The change in the polls in
the last 2-3 days has been a couple of percentage points towards
Kerry, so Bush (or at least his numbers) are going down.
lojbab
--
lojbab
Bob LeChevalier, Founder, The Logical Language Group
(Opinions are my own; I do not speak for the organization.)
Artificial language Loglan/Lojban: http://www.lojban.org
.
|
|
|
| User: "Cary Kittrell" |
|
| Title: Re: The Presidential Campaign is Over |
26 Oct 2004 04:06:06 PM |
|
|
In article <uictn0599k15msjaotatp3c96fdiqrvupd@4ax.com> Bob LeChevalier <lojbab@lojban.org> writes:
Gray Shockley <CyberGray@gmail.com> wrote:
On Mon, 25 Oct 2004 22:03:51 -0500, Bob LeChevalier wrote
(in message <5jfrn0pkdpjeatnhei3ht7l2kefp9o66bq@4ax.com>):
Don't count your chickens. Bush is going down.
I can hope but I'm certainly not /that/ sure.
The polls have it as a statistical tie. Using the historical trend
that undecideds break more than 2:1 for the challenger breaks that tie
in favor of Kerry. There are several sites doing statistical
simulations using differing assumptions about the undecided vote, but
for the most part they are running at 3:1 odds for Kerry.
And this is not counting the known error in the polls this year, in
that they do not count cell-phone users with no landline. This is a
predominantly younger crowd, normally not all that high in turnout,
but this year likely to be higher than usual. Under 30s are breaking
more than 2:1 in favor of Kerry, making a Kerry victory even more
likely.
But my earlier comment was equally a pun. The change in the polls in
the last 2-3 days has been a couple of percentage points towards
Kerry, so Bush (or at least his numbers) are going down.
Is anyone seeing poll numbers as filtered through the only sieve
which will matter in the long run: the electoral votes? I'm
sure that both campaigns run such analyses, obsessively and
daily, but I've not seen any media attempts along these lines.
-- cary
.
|
|
|
| User: "Bob LeChevalier" |
|
| Title: Re: The Presidential Campaign is Over |
26 Oct 2004 06:48:13 PM |
|
|
(Cary Kittrell) wrote:
In article <uictn0599k15msjaotatp3c96fdiqrvupd@4ax.com> Bob LeChevalier < > writes:
Gray Shockley <CyberGray@gmail.com> wrote:
On Mon, 25 Oct 2004 22:03:51 -0500, Bob LeChevalier wrote
(in message <5jfrn0pkdpjeatnhei3ht7l2kefp9o66bq@4ax.com>):
Don't count your chickens. Bush is going down.
I can hope but I'm certainly not /that/ sure.
The polls have it as a statistical tie. Using the historical trend
that undecideds break more than 2:1 for the challenger breaks that tie
in favor of Kerry. There are several sites doing statistical
simulations using differing assumptions about the undecided vote, but
for the most part they are running at 3:1 odds for Kerry.
And this is not counting the known error in the polls this year, in
that they do not count cell-phone users with no landline. This is a
predominantly younger crowd, normally not all that high in turnout,
but this year likely to be higher than usual. Under 30s are breaking
more than 2:1 in favor of Kerry, making a Kerry victory even more
likely.
But my earlier comment was equally a pun. The change in the polls in
the last 2-3 days has been a couple of percentage points towards
Kerry, so Bush (or at least his numbers) are going down.
Is anyone seeing poll numbers as filtered through the only sieve
which will matter in the long run: the electoral votes? I'm
sure that both campaigns run such analyses, obsessively and
daily, but I've not seen any media attempts along these lines.
On a couple of threads today (look for a response to "george"), I've
posted links to various statistical analyses looking at state-by-state
polls. You can look at the links and pick your statistical method,
since the links I presented make it a point to explain just how they
are doing it (which invariably spawns someone doing it a little
differently a few days later, which is why I give multiple links - I
don't pretend to know the pros and cons of the various statistical
projections (JD should be alerted that I admit ignorance on
something)).
lojbab
--
lojbab
Bob LeChevalier, Founder, The Logical Language Group
(Opinions are my own; I do not speak for the organization.)
Artificial language Loglan/Lojban: http://www.lojban.org
.
|
|
|
| User: "Cary Kittrell" |
|
| Title: Re: The Presidential Campaign is Over |
26 Oct 2004 06:55:03 PM |
|
|
In article <haotn0d3iiu23hs8m8updi537lgd1t6th4@4ax.com> Bob LeChevalier <lojbab@lojban.org> writes:
cary@afone.as.arizona.edu (Cary Kittrell) wrote:
In article <uictn0599k15msjaotatp3c96fdiqrvupd@4ax.com> Bob LeChevalier <lojbab@lojban.org> writes:
Gray Shockley <CyberGray@gmail.com> wrote:
On Mon, 25 Oct 2004 22:03:51 -0500, Bob LeChevalier wrote
(in message <5jfrn0pkdpjeatnhei3ht7l2kefp9o66bq@4ax.com>):
Don't count your chickens. Bush is going down.
I can hope but I'm certainly not /that/ sure.
The polls have it as a statistical tie. Using the historical trend
that undecideds break more than 2:1 for the challenger breaks that tie
in favor of Kerry. There are several sites doing statistical
simulations using differing assumptions about the undecided vote, but
for the most part they are running at 3:1 odds for Kerry.
And this is not counting the known error in the polls this year, in
that they do not count cell-phone users with no landline. This is a
predominantly younger crowd, normally not all that high in turnout,
but this year likely to be higher than usual. Under 30s are breaking
more than 2:1 in favor of Kerry, making a Kerry victory even more
likely.
But my earlier comment was equally a pun. The change in the polls in
the last 2-3 days has been a couple of percentage points towards
Kerry, so Bush (or at least his numbers) are going down.
Is anyone seeing poll numbers as filtered through the only sieve
which will matter in the long run: the electoral votes? I'm
sure that both campaigns run such analyses, obsessively and
daily, but I've not seen any media attempts along these lines.
On a couple of threads today (look for a response to "george"), I've
posted links to various statistical analyses looking at state-by-state
polls. You can look at the links and pick your statistical method,
since the links I presented make it a point to explain just how they
are doing it (which invariably spawns someone doing it a little
differently a few days later, which is why I give multiple links - I
don't pretend to know the pros and cons of the various statistical
projections
Thank you. I shall go and look.
(JD should be alerted that I admit ignorance on something)).
NOOOoooooo. Say it ain't so! I'm shattered. I am.
If, faith destroyed, I slip into a life sodden with fine liquor,
dangerous mind-altering drugs, and willing comely women, I
have only yourself to blame.
-- cary
.
|
|
|
|
|
| User: "Circe" |
|
| Title: Re: The Presidential Campaign is Over |
26 Oct 2004 04:35:27 PM |
|
|
Cary Kittrell wrote:
Is anyone seeing poll numbers as filtered through the only sieve
which will matter in the long run: the electoral votes? I'm
sure that both campaigns run such analyses, obsessively and
daily, but I've not seen any media attempts along these lines.
Slate updates one on electoral votes daily. Today's is at
http://slate.msn.com/id/2108689/. Right now, Bush is ahead (276 to 262 by
their count).
--
Be well, Barbara
This week's suggested Bush-Cheney Campaign Slogan:
"Why change horsemen in mid-apocalypse?"
All opinions expressed in this post are well-reasoned and insightful.
Needless to say, they are not those of my Internet Service Provider, its
other subscribers or lackeys. Anyone who says otherwise is itchin' for a
fight. -- with apologies to Michael Feldman
.
|
|
|
| User: "Ex-Republican" |
|
| Title: Re: The Presidential Campaign is Over |
26 Oct 2004 04:44:13 PM |
|
|
"Circe" <guavaln@yahoo.com> wrote in message
news:lozfd.44199$bk1.33124@fed1read05...
Cary Kittrell wrote:
Is anyone seeing poll numbers as filtered through the only sieve
which will matter in the long run: the electoral votes? I'm
sure that both campaigns run such analyses, obsessively and
daily, but I've not seen any media attempts along these lines.
Slate updates one on electoral votes daily. Today's is at
http://slate.msn.com/id/2108689/. Right now, Bush is ahead (276 to 262 by
their count).
just thought i'd throw this in from the same site:
Analysis Oct. 26, noon ET: Trouble for the president. He's trending down in
the Reuters/Zogby tracking polls in Florida, Ohio, and Wisconsin. The map
appears to be firming up: Nevada, New Mexico, and Iowa to Bush; Michigan,
Minnesota, and Pennsylvania to Kerry. The back-breaker is Florida, where
Bush has won only two of the last seven polls. One (Gallup) is clearly out
of whack. If the other (Zogby tracking) drops again tonight without
countervailing evidence, Bush will be out 27 electoral votes, needing Ohio
and Wisconsin just to tie.
--
Be well, Barbara
This week's suggested Bush-Cheney Campaign Slogan:
"Why change horsemen in mid-apocalypse?"
All opinions expressed in this post are well-reasoned and insightful.
Needless to say, they are not those of my Internet Service Provider, its
other subscribers or lackeys. Anyone who says otherwise is itchin' for a
fight. -- with apologies to Michael Feldman
.
|
|
|
|
| User: "Cary Kittrell" |
|
| Title: Re: The Presidential Campaign is Over |
26 Oct 2004 05:09:10 PM |
|
|
In article <lozfd.44199$bk1.33124@fed1read05> "Circe" <guavaln@yahoo.com> writes:
Cary Kittrell wrote:
Is anyone seeing poll numbers as filtered through the only sieve
which will matter in the long run: the electoral votes? I'm
sure that both campaigns run such analyses, obsessively and
daily, but I've not seen any media attempts along these lines.
Slate updates one on electoral votes daily.
Ah. Thank you.
Today's is at
http://slate.msn.com/id/2108689/. Right now, Bush is ahead (276 to 262 by
their count).
That's discouraging. Not surprising, but discouraging nonetheless.
--
Be well, Barbara
This week's suggested Bush-Cheney Campaign Slogan:
"Why change horsemen in mid-apocalypse?"
All opinions expressed in this post are well-reasoned and insightful.
Needless to say, they are not those of my Internet Service Provider, its
other subscribers or lackeys. Anyone who says otherwise is itchin' for a
fight. -- with apologies to Michael Feldman
Sold the kids to white slavers, did we?
-- cary
.
|
|
|
| User: "Circe" |
|
| Title: Re: The Presidential Campaign is Over |
26 Oct 2004 05:43:17 PM |
|
|
Cary Kittrell wrote:
In article <lozfd.44199$bk1.33124@fed1read05> "Circe"
<guavaln@yahoo.com> writes:
Cary Kittrell wrote:
Is anyone seeing poll numbers as filtered through the only sieve
which will matter in the long run: the electoral votes? I'm
sure that both campaigns run such analyses, obsessively and
daily, but I've not seen any media attempts along these lines.
Slate updates one on electoral votes daily.
Ah. Thank you.
Today's is at
http://slate.msn.com/id/2108689/. Right now, Bush is ahead (276 to
262 by their count).
That's discouraging. Not surprising, but discouraging nonetheless.
Well, there are some good signs in that the polling numbers look to be
trending back Kerry's way. They may just not trend fast enough or far
enough.
--
Be well, Barbara
This week's suggested Bush-Cheney Campaign Slogan:
"Why change horsemen in mid-apocalypse?"
Sold the kids to white slavers, did we?
LOL. I just try to keep them out of it when I'm posting to very political,
cross-posted threads. Not that I manage to do that perfectly, mind you.
--
Be well, Barbara
This week's suggested Bush-Cheney Campaign Slogan:
"Why change horsemen in mid-apocalypse?"
All opinions expressed in this post are well-reasoned and insightful.
Needless to say, they are not those of my Internet Service Provider, its
other subscribers or lackeys. Anyone who says otherwise is itchin' for a
fight. -- with apologies to Michael Feldman
.
|
|
|
|
| User: "Gray Shockley" |
|
| Title: Re: The Presidential Campaign is Over |
26 Oct 2004 09:26:38 PM |
|
|
On Tue, 26 Oct 2004 17:09:10 -0500, Cary Kittrell wrote
(in message <clmhu6$o60$1@onion.ccit.arizona.edu>):
In article <lozfd.44199$bk1.33124@fed1read05> "Circe" <guavaln@yahoo.com>
writes:
Cary Kittrell wrote:
Is anyone seeing poll numbers as filtered through the only sieve
which will matter in the long run: the electoral votes? I'm
sure that both campaigns run such analyses, obsessively and
daily, but I've not seen any media attempts along these lines.
Slate updates one on electoral votes daily.
Ah. Thank you.
Today's is at
http://slate.msn.com/id/2108689/. Right now, Bush is ahead (276 to 262 by
their count).
That's discouraging. Not surprising, but discouraging nonetheless.
--
Be well, Barbara
This week's suggested Bush-Cheney Campaign Slogan:
"Why change horsemen in mid-apocalypse?"
All opinions expressed in this post are well-reasoned and insightful.
Needless to say, they are not those of my Internet Service Provider, its
other subscribers or lackeys. Anyone who says otherwise is itchin' for a
fight. -- with apologies to Michael Feldman
Sold the kids to white slavers, did we?
-- cary
That would be "undocumented guardians". /gray/
.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| User: "curtsybear" |
|
| Title: Re: The Presidential Campaign is Over |
26 Oct 2004 04:13:57 PM |
|
|
On Mon, 25 Oct 2004 23:03:51 -0400, Bob LeChevalier <lojbab@lojban.org> wrote:
Don't count your chickens. Bush is going down.
Good. Laura deserves something for putting up with his sh!t.
--
He who can give thanks for little will always find he has enough.
.
|
|
|
|
|
| User: "kurttrail" |
|
| Title: Re: The Presidential Campaign is Over |
25 Oct 2004 11:45:52 AM |
|
|
Gactimus wrote:
This election is over because fatigued voters want it to be over.
Voters are tired of the overheated rhetoric, of the Michael Moores
and the Swifties. They're tired of the half dozen daily tracking
polls. They're tired of being told that tens of thousands of lawyers
will make a close election last forever.
This has been the longest general election campaign ever. Since Kerry
became the Democrat-nominee-apparent in February, voters have been
treated to a relentless diet of political hysteria. There was so much
campaign news that major events became mere blips.
The conventions and debates were the candidates' last chance to break
through the clutter. In the final debate, Kerry failed to deliver a
knockout punch and came off as a pessimist. Voters made up their
minds. Like good Americans, they've decided to vote for President Bush
Since then, the polls have shown a steady 2-8 point Bush lead. All the
stories since then - Mary-Cheney, Stolen-Honor, Teresa-Real-Job,
Ashley's-Story - have been unable to move the numbers.
At this point, virtually no events will move numbers. Not even an
October Surprise. Just about the only votes still up for grabs are
the Landslide Faction - those voters who're determined to avoid
another close election by giving the likely winner a clear majority.
Those voters can only help President Bush.
This election is over. And it's about time too.
It ain't over 'til it's over.
--
Peace!
Kurt
Self-anointed Moderator
microscum.pubic.windowsexp.gonorrhea
http://microscum.com
"Trustworthy Computing" is only another example of an Oxymoron!
"Produkt-Aktivierung macht frei!"
.
|
|
|
| User: "Walter Bushell" |
|
| Title: Re: The Presidential Campaign is Over |
28 Oct 2004 10:36:01 AM |
|
|
In article <JOSdnaXPHvVPsODcRVn-pQ@adelphia.com>,
"kurttrail" <dontemailme@anywhereintheknownuniverse.org> wrote:
Gactimus wrote:
This election is over because fatigued voters want it to be over.
Voters are tired of the overheated rhetoric, of the Michael Moores
and the Swifties. They're tired of the half dozen daily tracking
polls. They're tired of being told that tens of thousands of lawyers
will make a close election last forever.
This has been the longest general election campaign ever. Since Kerry
became the Democrat-nominee-apparent in February, voters have been
treated to a relentless diet of political hysteria. There was so much
campaign news that major events became mere blips.
The conventions and debates were the candidates' last chance to break
through the clutter. In the final debate, Kerry failed to deliver a
knockout punch and came off as a pessimist. Voters made up their
minds. Like good Americans, they've decided to vote for President Bush
Since then, the polls have shown a steady 2-8 point Bush lead. All the
stories since then - Mary-Cheney, Stolen-Honor, Teresa-Real-Job,
Ashley's-Story - have been unable to move the numbers.
At this point, virtually no events will move numbers. Not even an
October Surprise. Just about the only votes still up for grabs are
the Landslide Faction - those voters who're determined to avoid
another close election by giving the likely winner a clear majority.
Those voters can only help President Bush.
This election is over. And it's about time too.
It ain't over 'til it's over.
It ain't over 'till the Supremes rule.
--
Guns don't kill people; automobiles kill people.
.
|
|
|
| User: "Jeff North" |
|
| Title: Re: The Presidential Campaign is Over |
28 Oct 2004 01:11:27 PM |
|
|
On Thu, 28 Oct 2004 11:36:01 -0400, in alt.politics.homosexuality
Walter Bushell <proto@panix.com> wrote:
| It ain't over 'till the Supremes rule.
They once did along with the Four Tops, the Box Tops, Frankie Valli
<ducking>
---------------------------------------------------------------
jnorth@yourpantsbigpond.net.au : Remove your pants to reply
---------------------------------------------------------------
.
|
|
|
|
| User: "kurttrail" |
|
| Title: Re: The Presidential Campaign is Over |
28 Oct 2004 10:44:15 AM |
|
|
Walter Bushell wrote:
In article <JOSdnaXPHvVPsODcRVn-pQ@adelphia.com>,
"kurttrail" <dontemailme@anywhereintheknownuniverse.org> wrote:
Gactimus wrote:
This election is over because fatigued voters want it to be over.
Voters are tired of the overheated rhetoric, of the Michael Moores
and the Swifties. They're tired of the half dozen daily tracking
polls. They're tired of being told that tens of thousands of lawyers
will make a close election last forever.
This has been the longest general election campaign ever. Since
Kerry became the Democrat-nominee-apparent in February, voters have
been treated to a relentless diet of political hysteria. There was
so much campaign news that major events became mere blips.
The conventions and debates were the candidates' last chance to
break through the clutter. In the final debate, Kerry failed to
deliver a knockout punch and came off as a pessimist. Voters made
up their minds. Like good Americans, they've decided to vote for
President Bush
Since then, the polls have shown a steady 2-8 point Bush lead. All
the stories since then - Mary-Cheney, Stolen-Honor, Teresa-Real-Job,
Ashley's-Story - have been unable to move the numbers.
At this point, virtually no events will move numbers. Not even an
October Surprise. Just about the only votes still up for grabs are
the Landslide Faction - those voters who're determined to avoid
another close election by giving the likely winner a clear majority.
Those voters can only help President Bush.
This election is over. And it's about time too.
It ain't over 'til it's over.
It ain't over 'till the Supremes rule.
I'm more concerned that the electoral vote will be tied and the House of
Reps will decide the election.
--
Peace!
Kurt
Self-anointed Moderator
microscum.pubic.windowsexp.gonorrhea
http://microscum.com
"Trustworthy Computing" is only another example of an Oxymoron!
"Produkt-Aktivierung macht frei!"
.
|
|
|
| User: "Dennis Kemmerer" |
|
| Title: Re: The Presidential Campaign is Over |
28 Oct 2004 11:33:14 AM |
|
|
"kurttrail" <dontemailme@anywhereintheknownuniverse.org> wrote in message
news:Q4adnfXshKlTjhzcRVn-rg@adelphia.com...
[snip]
I'm more concerned that the electoral vote will be tied and the House of
Reps will decide the election.
Point of information: If the electoral vote is tied, or, more accurately, if
neither candidate gets a majority of the electoral votes, the House elects
the president, but not by a simple majority vote. Each state receives only
one vote, and the representatives from each state have to decide which
candidate gets theirs. This situation has happened twice - in 1800 and
1824 - and the process is spelled out the the 12th amendment. According to
the pundits, if that were to happen again next week, Bush would win 30 - 20.
.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Related Articles |
|
|
