Leading scientists still reject God
Nature, Vol. 394, No. 6691, p. 313 (1998) © Macmillan Publishers Ltd.



Sir - The question of religious belief among US scientists has been
debated since early in the century. Our latest survey finds that, among
the top natural scientists, disbelief is greater than ever - almost total.

Research on this topic began with the eminent US psychologist James H.
Leuba and his landmark survey of 1914. He found that 58% of 1,000 randomly
selected US scientists expressed disbelief or doubt in the existence of
God, and that this figure rose to near 70% among the 400 "greater"
scientists within his sample [1]. Leuba repeated his survey in somewhat
different form 20 years later, and found that these percentages had
increased to 67 and 85, respectively [2].

In 1996, we repeated Leuba's 1914 survey and reported our results in
Nature [3]. We found little change from 1914 for American scientists
generally, with 60.7% expressing disbelief or doubt. This year, we closely
imitated the second phase of Leuba's 1914 survey to gauge belief among
"greater" scientists, and find the rate of belief lower than ever - a mere
7% of respondents.

Leuba attributed the higher level of disbelief and doubt among "greater"
scientists to their "superior knowledge, understanding, and experience"
[3]. Similarly, Oxford University scientist Peter Atkins commented on our
1996 survey, "You clearly can be a scientist and have religious beliefs.
But I don't think you can be a real scientist in the deepest sense of the
word because they are such alien categories of knowledge." [4] Such
comments led us to repeat the second phase of Leuba's study for an
up-to-date comparison of the religious beliefs of "greater" and "lesser"
scientists.

Our chosen group of "greater" scientists were members of the National
Academy of Sciences (NAS). Our survey found near universal rejection of
the transcendent by NAS natural scientists. Disbelief in God and
immortality among NAS biological scientists was 65.2% and 69.0%,
respectively, and among NAS physical scientists it was 79.0% and 76.3%.
Most of the rest were agnostics on both issues, with few believers. We
found the highest percentage of belief among NAS mathematicians (14.3% in
God, 15.0% in immortality). Biological scientists had the lowest rate of
belief (5.5% in God, 7.1% in immortality), with physicists and astronomers
slightly higher (7.5% in God, 7.5% in immortality). Overall comparison
figures for the 1914, 1933 and 1998 surveys appear in Table 1.


Table 1 Comparison of survey answers among "greater" scientists
Belief in personal God 1914 1933 1998
Personal belief 27.7 15 7.0
Personal disbelief 52.7 68 72.2
Doubt or agnosticism 20.9 17 20.8

Belief in human immortality 1914 1933 1998
Personal belief 35.2 18 7.9
Personal disbelief 25.4 53 76.7
Doubt or agnosticism 43.7 29 23.3
Figures are percentages.

Repeating Leuba's methods presented challenges. For his general surveys,
he randomly polled scientists listed in the standard reference work,
American Men of Science (AMS). We used the current edition. In Leuba's
day, AMS editors designated the "great scientists" among their entries,
and Leuba used these to identify his "greater" scientists [1,2]. The AMS
no longer makes these designations, so we chose as our "greater"
scientists members of the NAS, a status that once assured designation as
"great scientists" in the early AMS. Our method surely generated a more
elite sample than Leuba's method, which (if the quoted comments by Leuba
and Atkins are correct) may explain the extremely low level of belief
among our respondents.

For the 1914 survey, Leuba mailed his brief questionnaire to a random
sample of 400 AMS "great scientists". It asked about the respondent's
belief in "a God in intellectual and affective communication with
humankind" and in "personal immortality". Respondents had the options of
affirming belief, disbelief or agnosticism on each question [1]. Our
survey contained precisely the same questions and also asked for anonymous
responses.

Leuba sent the 1914 survey to 400 "biological and physical scientists",
with the latter group including mathematicians as well as physicists and
astronomers [1]. Because of the relatively small size of NAS membership,
we sent our survey to all 517 NAS members in those core disciplines. Leuba
obtained a return rate of about 70% in 1914 and more than 75% in 1933
whereas our returns stood at about 60% for the 1996 survey and slightly
over 50% from NAS members [1,2].

As we compiled our findings, the NAS issued a booklet encouraging the
teaching of evolution in public schools, an ongoing source of friction
between the scientific community and some conservative Christians in the
United States. The booklet assures readers, "Whether God exists or not is
a question about which science is neutral"[5]. NAS president Bruce Alberts
said: "There are many very outstanding members of this academy who are
very religious people, people who believe in evolution, many of them
biologists." Our survey suggests otherwise.



Edward J. Larson
Department of History, University of Georgia,
Athens, Georgia 30602-6012, USA
e-mail:edlarson@uga.edu

Larry Witham
3816 Lansdale Court, Burtonsville,
Maryland 20866, USA


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


References
1.. Leuba, J. H. The Belief in God and Immortality: A
Psychological, Anthropological and Statistical Study (Sherman, French &
Co., Boston, 1916).
2.. Leuba, J. H. Harper's Magazine 169, 291-300 (1934).
3.. Larson, E. J. & Witham, L. Nature 386, 435-436 (1997).
4.. Highfield, R. The Daily Telegraph 3 April, p. 4 (1997).
5.. National Academy of Sciences Teaching About Evolution and the
Nature of Science (Natl Acad. Press, Washington DC, 1998).




http://www.stephenjaygould.org/ctrl/news/file002.html


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Leading scientists still reject God
Nature, Vol. 394, No. 6691, p. 313 (1998) © Macmillan Publishers Ltd.



Sir - The question of religious belief among US scientists has been
debated since early in the century. Our latest survey finds that,
among the top natural scientists, disbelief is greater than ever -
almost total.
Research on this topic began with the eminent US psychologist James
H. Leuba and his landmark survey of 1914. He found that 58% of 1,000
randomly selected US scientists expressed disbelief or doubt in the
existence of God, and that this figure rose to near 70% among the 400
"greater" scientists within his sample [1]. Leuba repeated his survey
in somewhat different form 20 years later, and found that these
percentages had increased to 67 and 85, respectively [2].

In 1996, we repeated Leuba's 1914 survey and reported our results in
Nature [3]. We found little change from 1914 for American scientists
generally, with 60.7% expressing disbelief or doubt. This year, we
closely imitated the second phase of Leuba's 1914 survey to gauge
belief among "greater" scientists, and find the rate of belief lower
than ever - a mere 7% of respondents.

Leuba attributed the higher level of disbelief and doubt among
"greater" scientists to their "superior knowledge, understanding, and
experience" [3]. Similarly, Oxford University scientist Peter Atkins
commented on our 1996 survey, "You clearly can be a scientist and
have religious beliefs. But I don't think you can be a real scientist
in the deepest sense of the word because they are such alien
categories of knowledge." [4] Such comments led us to repeat the
second phase of Leuba's study for an up-to-date comparison of the
religious beliefs of "greater" and "lesser" scientists.
Our chosen group of "greater" scientists were members of the National
Academy of Sciences (NAS). Our survey found near universal rejection
of the transcendent by NAS natural scientists. Disbelief in God and
immortality among NAS biological scientists was 65.2% and 69.0%,
respectively, and among NAS physical scientists it was 79.0% and
76.3%. Most of the rest were agnostics on both issues, with few
believers. We found the highest percentage of belief among NAS
mathematicians (14.3% in God, 15.0% in immortality). Biological
scientists had the lowest rate of belief (5.5% in God, 7.1% in
immortality), with physicists and astronomers slightly higher (7.5%
in God, 7.5% in immortality). Overall comparison figures for the
1914, 1933 and 1998 surveys appear in Table 1.

Table 1 Comparison of survey answers among "greater" scientists
Belief in personal God 1914 1933 1998
Personal belief 27.7 15 7.0
Personal disbelief 52.7 68 72.2
Doubt or agnosticism 20.9 17 20.8

Belief in human immortality 1914 1933 1998
Personal belief 35.2 18 7.9
Personal disbelief 25.4 53 76.7
Doubt or agnosticism 43.7 29 23.3
Figures are percentages.

Repeating Leuba's methods presented challenges. For his general
surveys, he randomly polled scientists listed in the standard
reference work, American Men of Science (AMS). We used the current
edition. In Leuba's day, AMS editors designated the "great
scientists" among their entries, and Leuba used these to identify his
"greater" scientists [1,2]. The AMS no longer makes these
designations, so we chose as our "greater" scientists members of the
NAS, a status that once assured designation as "great scientists" in
the early AMS. Our method surely generated a more elite sample than
Leuba's method, which (if the quoted comments by Leuba and Atkins are
correct) may explain the extremely low level of belief among our
respondents.
For the 1914 survey, Leuba mailed his brief questionnaire to a random
sample of 400 AMS "great scientists". It asked about the respondent's
belief in "a God in intellectual and affective communication with
humankind" and in "personal immortality". Respondents had the options
of affirming belief, disbelief or agnosticism on each question [1].
Our survey contained precisely the same questions and also asked for
anonymous responses.
Leuba sent the 1914 survey to 400 "biological and physical
scientists", with the latter group including mathematicians as well
as physicists and astronomers [1]. Because of the relatively small
size of NAS membership, we sent our survey to all 517 NAS members in
those core disciplines. Leuba obtained a return rate of about 70% in
1914 and more than 75% in 1933 whereas our returns stood at about 60%
for the 1996 survey and slightly over 50% from NAS members [1,2].

As we compiled our findings, the NAS issued a booklet encouraging the
teaching of evolution in public schools, an ongoing source of friction
between the scientific community and some conservative Christians in
the United States. The booklet assures readers, "Whether God exists
or not is a question about which science is neutral"[5]. NAS
president Bruce Alberts said: "There are many very outstanding
members of this academy who are very religious people, people who
believe in evolution, many of them biologists." Our survey suggests
otherwise.


Edward J. Larson
Department of History, University of Georgia,
Athens, Georgia 30602-6012, USA
e-mail:edlarson@uga.edu

Larry Witham
3816 Lansdale Court, Burtonsville,
Maryland 20866, USA


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


References
1.. Leuba, J. H. The Belief in God and Immortality: A
Psychological, Anthropological and Statistical Study (Sherman, French
& Co., Boston, 1916). 2.. Leuba, J. H. Harper's Magazine 169, 291-300
(1934).
3.. Larson, E. J. & Witham, L. Nature 386, 435-436 (1997).
4.. Highfield, R. The Daily Telegraph 3 April, p. 4 (1997).
5.. National Academy of Sciences Teaching About Evolution and
the Nature of Science (Natl Acad. Press, Washington DC, 1998).




http://www.stephenjaygould.org/ctrl/news/file002.html