BM

Nice to see someone approaching this issue with stats:

the graphs and tables are in the original article:

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/IB21Ag01.html

Death by secularism: Some statistical evidence
By Spengler

Infertility is killing off the secular world, a number of writers have
observed, including Phillip Longman, whose 1994 book The Empty Cradle
I reviewed last year. [1] In the former Soviet empire, where atheism
reigned as state policy for generations, the United Nations forecasts
extreme declines in population by 2050, ranging from 22% for the
Russian Federation to nearly 50% for the Ukraine. Secular western
Europe will lose 4% to 12% of its population, while the population of
the churchgoing United States continues to grow. Is secularism at
fault? The numbers do not suggest otherwise.

Humankind cannot abide the terror of mortality without the promise of
immortality, I have argue in the past. [2] In the absence of religion
human society sinks into depressive torpor. Secular society therefore
is an oxymoron, for the death of religion leads quickly enough to the
death of society itself.

These are impressionistic rather than rigorous arguments, however.
Explaining the causes of population change has frustrated
statisticians for years. Many factors influence fertility, including
urbanization and literacy. Subsistence farmers view children as cheap
labor and a source of wealth; peoples who remember a high infant
mortality rate have more children; uneducated people do not plan the
size of families, and impoverished people cannot afford the means to
do so.

Having found no academic research that specifically measures the
impact of religious belief on fertility controlling for these factors,
I have done some calculations of my own using a cross section of data
for 174 countries. My analysis, preliminary as it is, supports the
conclusion that religious belief strongly influences fertility after
controlling for wealth and education. There are lies, damned lies, and
statistics, of course, and results of this kind should be viewed with
caution. Still, this analysis passes the first cut of tests for
rigor.

A visual comparison of population growth rates and degree of religious
belief shows strong correlation. The World Christian Database
(www.worldchristiandatabase.org) reports the percentage of individuals
declaring themselves "atheists" or "non-religious" in more than 200
countries, as well as economic and demographic data. [3] Using the
2005 population projections published in February by the United
Nations Economic and Social Council, I compared a number of measures
of population growth to the data for religious belief. The results are
shown below.

All the countries with high population growth rates (vertical scale)
have an extremely low percentage of non-religious people (horizontal
scale), while all the countries with extremely low population growth
rates have a high percentage of non-religious people. There are of
course some countries (e.g., France and the UK) with population growth
rates above zero despite a very large proportion of non-religious.
Very high fertility of immigrant populations, though, helps explain
why the French and British numbers deviate from the trend. Although a
sample of 83 countries permits a great deal of differentiation, the
overlap of cultures due to immigration necessarily will lead to some
anomalies. [4]

More important is that a scatter-plot of population growth vs
percentage of non-religious people, of course, is a naive comparison,
ignoring other factors that influence fertility. One could (and
demographers do) spend a lifetime fitting different pieces of data
into the jigsaw puzzle to explain the variation in population growth
across countries. This effort is a sketch rather than a finished
picture, of course, and I have been able to test only a few
variables.

By far the strongest predictor of population growth rates is adult
literacy. That is not surprising, as illiterate people are likely to
let nature take its course without any consideration for the
implications of family size. Nonetheless, religious belief (measured
by the log of the percentage of non-religious in the population)
remains a strong predictor even when adult literacy is introduced as a
control variable (at the nearly 100% confidence level). Wealth, that
is, per capita GDP, shows no significance in the equation.

explains 68% of the variation in population growth across countries.
More important than the degree of explanatory power (r squared ) is
the significance of each predictor, that is, the probability that the
true coefficient is not zero. Both religious belief and literacy show
significance at close to the 100% confidence level. The results change
little if the 50, or 100, or 150 largest countries are included in the
sample.

Underlying the demographic crisis of the industrial world, I believe,
is a spiritual crisis. If the above analysis has any merit, the issue
is not wealth, but rather the desire of men to continue to inhabit
this planet. Secular ideologies - socialism, positivism, and so forth
- promised a world free of bigotry and hatred, and an unending vista
of peace and prosperity. Humankind, however, has vomited up these
ideologies. Secular Europe and radical Islam in that sense represent
two sides of the same coin: both have rejected the secular order, the
latter through open battle, and the former through fatal resignation.

Demographic analysis can help strip secularism of its progressive mask
and reveal the death's-head underneath. The analysis shown above may
be the work of an amateur, but it will serve a good purpose if it
provokes the professionals to do a more thorough job.

Notes

[1] Faith, fertility and American dominance, Sep 8, 2004.

[2] See Why Europe chooses extinction, Apr 8, 2003.

[3] Generously, the World Christian Database allows some free
downloads although the full dataset requires a paid subscription.

[4] A case could be made that a certain threshold of secularism must
be reached in order to influence population growth. Using the
logarithm of the percentage of non-religious approximates this
threshold effect, but this is a way of linearizing a relationship that
evidently is not linear to begin with. A LOGIT model might permit
better specification than linear regression.

(Copyright 2005 Asia Times Online Ltd. All rights reserved. Please
contact us for information on sales, syndication and republishing.)

----------

BM

Nice to see someone approaching this issue with stats:

the graphs and tables are in the original article:

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/IB21Ag01.html

Death by secularism: Some statistical evidence
By Spengler

Infertility is killing off the secular world, a number of writers have
observed, including Phillip Longman, whose 1994 book The Empty Cradle
I reviewed last year. [1] In the former Soviet empire, where atheism
reigned as state policy for generations, the United Nations forecasts
extreme declines in population by 2050, ranging from 22% for the
Russian Federation to nearly 50% for the Ukraine. Secular western
Europe will lose 4% to 12% of its population, while the population of
the churchgoing United States continues to grow. Is secularism at
fault? The numbers do not suggest otherwise.

Humankind cannot abide the terror of mortality without the promise of
immortality, I have argue in the past.

Nice to see someone approaching this issue with stats:

the graphs and tables are in the original article:

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/IB21Ag01.html

Death by secularism: Some statistical evidence
By Spengler

Infertility is killing off the secular world, a number of writers have
observed, including Phillip Longman, whose 1994 book The Empty Cradle
I reviewed last year. [1] In the former Soviet empire, where atheism
reigned as state policy for generations, the United Nations forecasts
extreme declines in population by 2050, ranging from 22% for the
Russian Federation to nearly 50% for the Ukraine. Secular western
Europe will lose 4% to 12% of its population, while the population of
the churchgoing United States continues to grow. Is secularism at
fault? The numbers do not suggest otherwise.

Humankind cannot abide the terror of mortality without the promise of
immortality, I have argue in the past. [2] In the absence of religion
human society sinks into depressive torpor. Secular society therefore
is an oxymoron, for the death of religion leads quickly enough to the
death of society itself.

These are impressionistic rather than rigorous arguments, however.
Explaining the causes of population change has frustrated
statisticians for years. Many factors influence fertility, including
urbanization and literacy. Subsistence farmers view children as cheap
labor and a source of wealth; peoples who remember a high infant
mortality rate have more children; uneducated people do not plan the
size of families, and impoverished people cannot afford the means to
do so.

Having found no academic research that specifically measures the
impact of religious belief on fertility controlling for these factors,
I have done some calculations of my own using a cross section of data
for 174 countries. My analysis, preliminary as it is, supports the
conclusion that religious belief strongly influences fertility after
controlling for wealth and education. There are lies, damned lies, and
statistics, of course, and results of this kind should be viewed with
caution. Still, this analysis passes the first cut of tests for
rigor.

A visual comparison of population growth rates and degree of religious
belief shows strong correlation. The World Christian Database
(www.worldchristiandatabase.org) reports the percentage of individuals
declaring themselves "atheists" or "non-religious" in more than 200
countries, as well as economic and demographic data. [3] Using the
2005 population projections published in February by the United
Nations Economic and Social Council, I compared a number of measures
of population growth to the data for religious belief. The results are
shown below.

All the countries with high population growth rates (vertical scale)
have an extremely low percentage of non-religious people (horizontal
scale), while all the countries with extremely low population growth
rates have a high percentage of non-religious people. There are of
course some countries (e.g., France and the UK) with population growth
rates above zero despite a very large proportion of non-religious.
Very high fertility of immigrant populations, though, helps explain
why the French and British numbers deviate from the trend. Although a
sample of 83 countries permits a great deal of differentiation, the
overlap of cultures due to immigration necessarily will lead to some
anomalies. [4]

More important is that a scatter-plot of population growth vs
percentage of non-religious people, of course, is a naive comparison,
ignoring other factors that influence fertility. One could (and
demographers do) spend a lifetime fitting different pieces of data
into the jigsaw puzzle to explain the variation in population growth
across countries. This effort is a sketch rather than a finished
picture, of course, and I have been able to test only a few
variables.

By far the strongest predictor of population growth rates is adult
literacy. That is not surprising, as illiterate people are likely to
let nature take its course without any consideration for the
implications of family size. Nonetheless, religious belief (measured
by the log of the percentage of non-religious in the population)
remains a strong predictor even when adult literacy is introduced as a
control variable (at the nearly 100% confidence level). Wealth, that
is, per capita GDP, shows no significance in the equation.

explains 68% of the variation in population growth across countries.
More important than the degree of explanatory power (r squared ) is
the significance of each predictor, that is, the probability that the
true coefficient is not zero. Both religious belief and literacy show
significance at close to the 100% confidence level. The results change
little if the 50, or 100, or 150 largest countries are included in the
sample.

Underlying the demographic crisis of the industrial world, I believe,
is a spiritual crisis. If the above analysis has any merit, the issue
is not wealth, but rather the desire of men to continue to inhabit
this planet. Secular ideologies - socialism, positivism, and so forth
- promised a world free of bigotry and hatred, and an unending vista
of peace and prosperity. Humankind, however, has vomited up these
ideologies. Secular Europe and radical Islam in that sense represent
two sides of the same coin: both have rejected the secular order, the
latter through open battle, and the former through fatal resignation.

Demographic analysis can help strip secularism of its progressive mask
and reveal the death's-head underneath. The analysis shown above may
be the work of an amateur, but it will serve a good purpose if it
provokes the professionals to do a more thorough job.

Notes

[1] Faith, fertility and American dominance, Sep 8, 2004.

[2] See Why Europe chooses extinction, Apr 8, 2003.

[3] Generously, the World Christian Database allows some free
downloads although the full dataset requires a paid subscription.

[4] A case could be made that a certain threshold of secularism must
be reached in order to influence population growth. Using the
logarithm of the percentage of non-religious approximates this
threshold effect, but this is a way of linearizing a relationship that
evidently is not linear to begin with. A LOGIT model might permit
better specification than linear regression.

(Copyright 2005 Asia Times Online Ltd. All rights reserved. Please
contact us for information on sales, syndication and republishing.)

----------

BM