http://www.publiuspundit.com/?p=1714
While the most over-reported story (and the most debunked) story in the
press this past August was the drafting of and the opposition to the
Iraqi constitution, the most under-reported story in September is how
ongoing negotiations have moderated large portions of the document’s
opposition. In fact, as some of the contentious issues have been
negotiated down, and the document has circulated amongst the general
population, its approval and acceptance has become more likely. While we
can’t perfectly predict what will happen, major leaders on the playing
field are saying that they will not mount strong campaigns against the
constitution, and will focus instead on the December elections.
BAGHDAD, Iraq - The two strongest opponents of Iraq’s proposed new
constitution said this week that they wouldn’t campaign against it
aggressively, making it likely that voters will approve the constitution
in an Oct. 15 referendum.
Passage would be a victory for the Bush administration’s Iraq
policy, but it’s unclear whether the document will produce a stable
Iraqi government with broad public support or further alienate the
country’s Sunni Muslim Arab minority.
Rebel Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr’s representatives said that
while he’s not thrilled about the constitution, he likely wouldn’t
encourage his followers to oppose it.
Hazem al-Araji, a senior al-Sadr aide, said that al-Sadr has formed
a committee to review the document and that once he hears from them
he’ll make a final decision.
“But for now, his opinion is neutral,” al-Araji said.
The largest Sunni political group, the Iraqi Islamic Party, said
that although it has encouraged its supporters to vote down the
document, its efforts are focused on the December election for a new
National Assembly.
“There are powers that will make sure this bad constitution passes,”
said Ala’a al-Maki, a party spokesman. “We are focusing more on ensuring
the Sunnis participate in the next election.”
Both al-Sadr’s supporters and members of the Islamic Party said
they’re concerned that federalist provisions in the constitution could
divide the country along sectarian lines.
What’s interesting also is the large disconnect between Iraqis
themselves and the leaders that they elected. The National Assmembly
elections last January were a brilliant moment in Iraqi history, but the
fact is, there were so many random parties and candidates that nobody
really knew who to vote for, so many Shia voted for the religious
parties that were endorsed. Also, the dramatic Sunni leaders currently
in the assembly weren’t elected due to the Sunni boycott, but were
actually selected to be in the assembly as an olive branch effort.
After watching these people wrangle over issues like Islam in the
constitution and turning the south into an area controlled by religious
militias affiliated with the major political parties, people are taking
notice of the way these people rule and aren’t liking it. The
constitution is actually pretty good now, and now that it is being read
widely by the population, people aren’t as up in arms about it as they
used to be, when they only knew what their leaders told them.
Since it will be likely approved, the shaping up of the December
elections is even more interesting now than the October referendum. If
you take into account what I just wrote, people are beginning to opt for
good governance over religious ideology in government. This attitude,
combined with high Sunni turnout, will lead to a huge drop in the
representation of religious parties. Here is what I predicted a while
back.
So why the rush to make decisions on these issues? Why not leave it
up to future parliaments to negotiate in order to avoid a “no” setback?
Because come the parliamentary election in December, the gap will likely
be closed by a large margin, meaning that religious parties will lose
seats as the public has learned what they represent. And they don’t want
it. Also, the Sunnis won’t be boycotting, which will give them a larger
representation to fuel direct opposition to sectarian federalism.
Now, it appears that secular parties are rising to the top, while
religious parties are beginning to wilt. Omar talks about the fracture
developing in the current leadership, as names somewhat forgotten like
former prime minister Allawi are becoming prominent again.
--
Fred Stone
aa# 1369
"Honesty is the best policy, but insanity is a better defense."
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