| Topic: |
Religions > Atheism |
| User: |
"Fester" |
| Date: |
27 Oct 2004 06:20:55 AM |
| Object: |
OT: Excellent Political Blog |
I just found this one:
http://jaycost.blogspot.com/2004/10/theorizing-about-oh-ground-game.html
Today he provides a very detailed analysis of why Bush is so confident of
winning OH that he hasn't been campaigning there.
--
"Your representative owes you, not his industry only, but his judgement; and
he betrays instead of serving you if he sacrifices it to your opinion"
Edmund Burke
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| User: "Ike" |
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| Title: Re: Excellent Political Blog |
27 Oct 2004 08:35:21 AM |
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"Fester" <not@home.com> wrote in message
news:rwLfd.20311$hr3.675021@twister.southeast.rr.com...
I just found this one:
http://jaycost.blogspot.com/2004/10/theorizing-about-oh-ground-game.html
This is not necessarily a correct analysis of the re-election effort. I was
unable to cut-and paste a paragraph from the page for illustration due to
HTML coding problems, but he is saying that it is probably illegal for the
Kerry-Edwards organizations to share certain information. I think the page
is written by a Republican flack. He might be right, about Ohio going to
Bush, but he doesn't say much about the GOP trying to steal Ohio through
questionable intimidation of registrars and voters, perhaps showing his
bias.
--
Freedom of thought entails no "Intellectual Property".
is illegal for them to communicate, I believe. Thus, every time they
communicate, they run the risk of being caught - which, given the high
degree of media and GOP monitoring, is a significant risk.
.
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| User: "wbarwell" |
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| Title: Re: Excellent Political Blog |
27 Oct 2004 08:35:25 PM |
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Ike wrote:
"Fester" <not@home.com> wrote in message
news:rwLfd.20311$hr3.675021@twister.southeast.rr.com...
I just found this one:
http://jaycost.blogspot.com/2004/10/theorizing-about-oh-ground-game.html
This is not necessarily a correct analysis of the re-election effort. I
was unable to cut-and paste a paragraph from the page for illustration due
to HTML coding problems, but he is saying that it is probably illegal for
the Kerry-Edwards organizations to share certain information. I think the
page is written by a Republican flack. He might be right, about Ohio going
to Bush, but he doesn't say much about the GOP trying to steal Ohio
through questionable intimidation of registrars and voters, perhaps
showing his bias.
www.realclearpolitics.com
Ohio is now tied, 47.5% - 47.3% averaged over several polls.
If Bush has stopped campaigning there, which I doubt, good.
Nader's off the ballot so we have 4.2% undecideds.
That's bad for Bush.
Usually an incumbent president is beating his opponent
at least 15% - points or he loses. There is no inbetween.
In a bad economy, incumbents lose. And in such situations,
undecideds usually go overwhelmingly for the challenger.
Both of these facts based on past history of elections mitigate
against a Bush win.
Ohio is in a bad economic slump.
We also have a possible polling problem in that polls
do not poll cell phone users, so these polls are heavily
weighted against people under 30 or so who now are mainly
cell phone users. And Kerry leaning.
I am going to predict that Bush will lose here,
and by about 5%. A lot of people are going into the booth
and will say, "Kerry didn't look that bad during the debates.
He had facst and didn't drool. I am not real sure about him,
but I can vote for him".
And the only thing Bush had over Kerry is the false perception
Bush would be better against terrorism. The missing 380
tons of explosives will end that illusion for many.
Turn out looks like its going to be high nationwide.
And that is always a good sign for Democrats.
We have several energizers here. Colleges with
people worried about a future Bush draft to keep
up troop strength in Iraq. This is energizing college voters.
Older people mad at Bush's Medicare fiasco. This is
a sleeper. But its moving people. Black voters.
In some states mad black voters are energized as
never before.The racist game playing now going on
in Ohio may be a mistake for Bush.
Women who worry about Roe vs Wade. There is
a big last moment push from women's groups to
get their people to the polls.
On the Bush side, there isn't much to get anybody outside
of the religous right excited. They are trying, but may suffer
losses from those mad about Iraq and Bush's economic
policies. They may lose as many as they energize to cement
Bush's far right agenda, which is their motivator.
Florida 48% - 46.8%
Bush leads by only 1.25 averaged over 6 polls, but one,
Gallup is way out of whack with the other 5.
Remove Gallup and the average is Kerry leading by .5%
With a MoE of 4%.
I have notice Gallup has long been way out of whack with
other polls, always favoring Bush heavily.
In Florida, much the same except a split in the Cuban vote.
Bush followed the lead of the old far right Cubans and strengthened the
embargo on Cuba. Cubans used to be able to go to Cuba once
a year, now they can go only every three years. Bush has cut back on money
Cubans can send to family, and who can be considered family and other
restrictions such as how much money can be sent.
This has goaded Castro into refusing any more to allow US
dolars to be spent in Cuba, now dolars have to be exchanged
at a bad rate for Cuban pesos, angering many who blame Bush for this
further complication in an already complicated life.
Older Cubans tend to not have much family in Cuba, many
newer Cuban refugees since the 80s still do and heavily resent this
bowing down to the extremist right Cuban dinosaurs.
Many are vowing not to show up for Bush at the polls.
many younger Cubans have elderly mothers and fathers
in Cuba.
With Cubans making up 14% of the vote in Florida, if
25% buck Bush over this, either staying home or voting
Kerry, that right there is 3.5% of the Florida vote.
In a state where Bush won by 525 votes, that alone would hurt,
not to mention AARP members still mad at Bush and AARP,
and lots of overseas troops in Iraq that aren't going to vote for
AWOL.
With realistic polls showing Florida tied, I will say Kerry will take it by
4 - 5%. Kerry lead Florida until the GOP convention, and then
Bush lead for some weeks as high as 7% over Kerry. We are tied again
and this shows a lot of movement off the fence and away from Bush.
--
Kerry - two medals a silver and bronze star.
Bush? Well they don't give medals
for going AWOL, missing your medical and
getting grounded or falling off of a bar stool.
Kerry - a hero, Bush - a zero
Cheerful Charlie
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