On Thu, 15 Jan 2004 23:19:22 -0600, Kate wrote:

On Thu, 15 Jan 2004 13:59:10 GMT, Brainfried <no@way.com> wrote:

On Thu, 15 Jan 2004 02:18:18 -0600, Kate wrote:

On Thu, 15 Jan 2004 06:35:40 GMT, Brainfried <no@way.com> wrote:

On Wed, 14 Jan 2004 12:49:04 -0800, maff wrote:

The Specter of Outsourcing
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A14516-2004Jan13.html

By Robert J. Samuelson, Page A19

We Americans are drifting into a global labor market -- and don't
like it. The latest fear is that hordes of white-collar jobs, from
low-paid filing clerks to well-paid software engineers, will vanish
into a giant global sinkhole of well-educated and underpaid workers,
mainly from India and China. Although we knew that manufacturing
jobs could be lost abroad, we imagined that service jobs -- most
U.S. jobs -- were safe from international competition. The fact that
they aren't could profoundly alter U.S. attitudes toward
globalization, even though the danger is exaggerated and
misunderstood.

Robert J. Samuelson
http://groups.google.com/groups?hl=en&lr=&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&selm=18510aff.0311291232.3b6dcc13%40posting.google.com

offshoring OR Outsourcing
http://news.google.com/news?num=100&hl=en&lr=&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&q=+offshoring+OR+Outsourcing&sa=N&tab=gn

http://www.google.com/search?num=100&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&q=+offshoring+OR+Outsourcing&sa=N&tab=nw

http://www.google.com/search?num=100&hl=en&lr=&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&q=+offshoring+OR+Outsourcing&sa=N&tab=wd&cat=gwd%2FTop

http://groups.google.com/groups?as_oq=offshoring%20Outsourcing&safe=images&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&as_scoring=d&lr=&num=100&hl=en

globalisation globalization
http://news.google.com/news?num=100&hl=en&lr=&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&q=+globalisation+OR+globalization&sa=N&tab=gn

http://www.google.com/search?num=100&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&q=+globalisation+OR+globalization&sa=N&tab=nw

http://www.google.com/search?num=100&hl=en&lr=&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&q=+globalisation+OR+globalization&sa=N&tab=wd&cat=gwd%2FTop

http://groups.google.com/groups?as_oq=globalisation%20globalization&safe=images&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&as_scoring=d&lr=&num=100&hl=en

The bottom line. (I'm in the US by the way.)

Most jobs being exported today are low-end processing jobs that I
don't want anyway!!!

Call centers (mental sweatshops), claims processing, tax preparation,
data entry, head-down programming (told to code a widget and they do
without any clue how it relates to a business).

The "back-office" stuff to me is extremely boring. I have an INTJ
personality type. I solve problems and build systems. I work with
the business to solve their problems. This requires hands-on and
on-site work with an in-depth knowledge of their business. It also
requires effective communication skills.

Thus far, the telephone support from Cisco (from India) has resulted
in getting devices replaced. BIG DEAL!!! It has resulted in getting
our Cisco VPN Concentrator screwed up (from Phillipines). Yuck!

The folks in India who are now getting all smug, beware!!! (Perhaps
someone from Japan can chime in at this point?)

For, here's the kicker. The majority of the jobs currently being
outsourced are processing jobs and will be eventually automated or
were losing money. (little to no profit margin - usually a loss - thus
little room to warrant salary growth) This hit me the other day while
ordering a pizza on-line. There is little need to have a live person
take a call to do basic things (like send out a replacement device).
Has anyone used FedEx? Their voice-recognition system is awesome!

India is enjoying a brief time in the spotlight, just before
technology improves enough to totally automate the jobs.

The point is, concerning the US, that the low-level jobs are leaving
anyway. India or automation. Don't blame India. It's just the
nature of progress. Progress requires change. Move or be left
behind.

I believe that the elimination of low-level jobs opens up a new world
of high-level jobs for the US. (and higher salaries) I believe that
India should take advantage of the opportunity to get on the ladder
and begin to climb. Meanwhile, I'll keep on climbing up the ladder.
We'll all be happier. The future looks bright.

Outsourcing - too much hype and too much fear - cost savings are
overblown - it will cool down or burst, just like the .com fallout

I'm actually working on an outsourcing engagement now. We do the IT
for another company. (among many) TREMENDOUS opportunities.
TREMENDOUS resume growth. TREMENDOUS career growth. TREMENDOUS
personal growth. More earning potential in the future. The US economy
is gaining speed. IT work is piled high (little has been upgraded in 3
years now) and as more workers are hired that need IT to do their
jobs, IT people will again be in high demand.

Really bad grammar tonight (this morning now). Happens...

Bull crap. Developement jobs are going at a horrendous rate. Many
software packages you will buy tomorrow are being written in India.

Contract programming are all being outsourced there, entire companies
are now setting up new departments in India and closing them out in
the US.

None of the companies can't compete anymore using US programmers, not
when they can hire the same for 1/6 of what they pay here - or less.

My husband's company laid him off and everyone else - all positions
are now in India, I'm hearing the same story over and over and seeing
it in the tech papers and other places. Tech jobs are history unless
you do hardware repair.

This means if you have a job that can be done long distance, you will
be in for some stiff competition sooner or later. A global
marketplace means those who live in high cost areas will not be able
to compete with those who live in 3rd world countries and who don't
expect health care, or clean safe water, or a safe place to live.

It will shake out - sooner or later, but don't expect your way of life
to continue. Expect a lack of jobs, a lack of businesses, a lack of
support from government and a lack of government services. Expect
more crime, more unrest, more extremism as life in the US becomes less
than comfortable and people blame others. OK, so they already are.

Hmmm...

I do understand where you're coming from and I further understand your
delima. I do work in networking and servers. My work is a little less
impacted by outsourcing, but not much. Like I said, I'm making gains
due to oursourcing.

I don't have a delima. Not sure what made you think that. I just get
upset when hearing conservative radio hosts proclaiming that there is no
problem with jobs now in the tech sector and everything is hunky dorry
except for a few tech support personel.

I once was conservative, but now I'm not. I'm in the middle. I don't
trust any of them.

The latest Rush Limbaugh incidents have put thousands of nails into the
conservative talk radio coffin for me.

Remember, most "normal" people still have visions of IT people as having
jobs like that did pre-Y2K and pre-dotcom fallout. You have to admit,
salaries and companies were overflated.

<clip>

Are you sure you're not talking about Japan?

Absolutely - jobs are also going to Russia and Poland I believe. China
is taking a lot of other kinds of jobs - many films are now being
partially or totally produced there.

I think you missed my point. I was trying to show that history is just
repeating itself and the US keeps moving along just fine. Closing our
borders would help in the short term, but harm in the long term.

Point being. Do you remember how so many people were up-in-arms about
automobile jobs being moved to Japan? (in the 80s}

Or, how about all of the people here who where were bashing VCRs
(literally) that were produced in Japan? (in the 80s)

It's funny how many "Japanese "and "German" automobiles are now being
assembled in the US. It's funny how my previous Chevrolet truck (read,
all-American) was assembled in Canada.

It's funny how so many VCRs and other electronic devices are being
assembed in Korea, Taiwan, China, and other Asian countries and not
Japan.
Cheaper to produce.

It's funny how bicycles, Christmas trees and other things are being made
in China. Cheaper to produce.

It's nice how these things are now so incredibly cheap. (cars excluded)

Even if you now make less money, it now goes much further.

My father made much less in pay (comparing then dollars to now dollars)
than my spouse and I and we cannot manage the same advantages they did
even though he was supporting a family of seven and us a family of 3. We
cannot afford a vacation most years. We cannot afford a summer home, 2
cars and a motor boat as they did. We cannot afford a house cleaner as
they did. We can however have as many cheap TV's as we want - big hairy
deal.

Did your father do the same type of work as your husband?

At the point
where you want to make your comparison, are your husband and your father
the same age? Cheap TVs - that's a good one. How many TVs do you have
now? How many did you have in your father's house? Did your father pay
for Internet access? Cable TV? Extra phone lines? Cell phones? Etc.? A
lot of the descretionary money these days goes into toys of the electronic
and service type and not into extra houses and vacations and boats. Did
you father inherit anything? What kind of mortgages? 15-year or 30-year?
Make sure you're not comparing apples to oranges.

Still,
salaries have continued to rise.

What salaries have continued to rise? Most people I know are stock
still or have taken a hit in their health benefits if not the salary
itself. Maybe a few job categories here and there have risen. I took a
5 percent hit myself and now pay more for my retirement and my health
coverage, but I work for the government, so I've been paid 30 to 40
percent less than commercial for almost a decade now.

Working for the government is your choice. Working for the government
does have its advantages. How many holidays do you get in comparison to
the public?

Tech salaries have deflated a bit and people have been laid off. It
happens. People were being paid too much before Y2K as companies were
desperate to get the help they needed. It's a buyers market right now and
companies don't need to pay as much. Supply and demand determines
salaries. Things are turning around. The stock market continues to rise.
This indicates that people have optimism about the profitability of US
companies. The economy will follow as usual. Did you even read the
article? I thought is was right.

Face it. It's a global game. We have global markets and global
companies. The world is a very small place. Technology ultimately
increases the pool of jobs. Remember, at one time, IT and IT networks
didn't exist.

Yes, but technology jobs did - back then they were called engineers.

And the various engineering schools were pissed when bright minds left for
computer engineering and computer science.

And I didn't say that just technology jobs will be in competition - all
jobs that can be done by someone far away at a computer will be sooner
or later.

True.

That means - art/design/video jobs, teaching - particularly at a
college level, writing, medical diagnosis (doctors), scientific
research, product design, counseling, just about anything that doesn't
require a warm body in place.

True.

Short term pain, long term gain.

Stop bitching and start planning. Start competing. Start moving, or
perish.

I wasn't bitching - I was correcting. But frankly you tell me - what
kinds of work do you think Americans can focus on that would be
competitive with 3rd world countries with over population, no labor laws
and no environmental rules?

Good question.

I see nothing but service jobs which are notoriously low paid.

Classic results would be more and more stratification of the population
financially. Rich people will get richer, poor people will get poorer,
the middle class will drift down. The country on average will be as
rich, but the wealth will be re-distributed to a smaller minority.

Need figures. I think what you're talking about is a myth. The classic
democrat mantra. I don't trust any party. Need figures.

Have confidence. History has shown the way. Everything will work out.

Try coming up with some logic to justify that. I'm not foolish enough
to have faith in the blandishments of strangers.

My logic is thus...

Look past all of the emotions.
Look past all of the fear.

Look at the history of the US. We are the only superpower on the planet.
We built many (most?) of the IT systems and software in the world.
Microsoft, Oracle, fostered Open Source movement, Cisco, 3Com, Intel, AMD,
Texas Instruments, HP (Compaq), Dell, etc.

Sure, you have SAP in Germany and I'm sure some great companies elsewhere.

We have consistently met the challenges. We went to the moon. We can do
anything we set our minds to.

Like I said, I am an INTJ. What this means is that will little
information (and we have little information and a lot of fear), I can have
confidence in my decisions enough to proceed. At the intuitive level, I
can "see" that the US has demonstrated it can compete and win. I have
confidence that we will find a way to compete and win. I can see that
raising the incomes of India and China (that will happen later after India
starts to cost too much) will help to control their population.

(higher
incomes which require more education = lower birth rate, history has
shown) This is about far more than just jobs.

I have confidence at an intuitive level. There is no way to convince you
with numbers because there are no numbers to show you the "final" outcome,
the "final" score.

All you can see is the first play of a very long
"game". We have a great "team". The US worker is ->the<- most productive
worker on the planet. (statistically proven) Contrary to popular belief,
the US school system is among the best in the world. On average, we look
worse than many, but we don't dump poor students into vocational
activities just because they aren't as bright. We continuously squeeze
the maximum out of each individual. We don't leave children behind. My
daugher is 7 and I know for a fact that she is receiving a better
education than I received and I know I received an excellent one. We're
creating great "players" to add to our great "team".

It's okay to disagree with me. The world would be a very sorry place if
we all agreed.

Meanwhile, I'll continue to find a way to make money and be happy.