| Topic: |
Religions > Atheism |
| User: |
"Fredric L. Rice" |
| Date: |
05 Jun 2004 10:20:41 AM |
| Object: |
Pollster says: Prepare for Armageddon |
Interesting: Analysis indicates that the GOP is in the position of praying
and hoping for a terrorist attack before November. It seems that is the
only thing that will pull Bush's ***** out of fire.
Pollster says: Prepare for Armageddon
By STAN TINER
John Zogby has become one of the handful of pollsters to whom those in
politics and the media listen most intently. There is a reason for that
attention: success.
On the stage of world politics no one in recent years has a better track
record of accurately predicting the outcome of elections than Mr. Zogby. So
when he says the 2004 election is John Kerry's to lose, it is worth some
examination.
It is startling when you think of it that more than six months before
election day a respected pollster would make such a bold prediction.
To say the election is Kerry's to lose hedges the bet a bit, so he actually
goes further and says "John Kerry will win the election."
His conclusion is based not on one or two recent polls, but on a trend he
observes in all of the polling since George W. Bush has been president,
especially since 9/11.
Zogby likens the president's poll numbers to a bouncing ball. The first
bounce is the highest, then each succeeding bounce is lower and lower.
Following the attack on America in September of 2001, the president rallied
the nation and his support soared to about 90 percent - the first bounce of
the ball.
Then came the start of the War in Iraq and the president's numbers received
their second bounce, but not as high as the first.
"We're still in the Vietnam era," Zogby told a group of Knight Ridder
editors last week. "We want our wars short and over."
So as the occupation period lengthened and the death count of our troops
mounted, the president's poll numbers declined.
Then Saddam Hussein was captured - and the ball bounced for the third time,
but not as high as the previous bounce, and the bounce didn't last for more
than two weeks.
Now there is little bounce left, Zogby said. Even if Osama bin Laden were
captured, Zogby does not believe there would be a significant gain for the
president.
Today the president and his challenger are pretty much neck-and-neck,
especially when you throw Ralph Nader into the equation, but more than half
of poll respondents say it is time for someone else to be president.
There are few undecided voters left in this nation and, historically, those
late undecideds tilt to the challenger against an incumbent, Zogby said.
This presidential election will hinge on two primary issues, Zogby
believes:
the economy and the war.
The economy is the top issue for 30 percent of the voters - and they favor
Kerry over Bush by 54 percent to 35 percent. Twenty percent cite the war as
the top issue - and Kerry leads among that group by 57 percent to 36
percent.
The president, however, enjoys a big edge - 64 percent to 30 percent - by
those voters who are most concerned about the War on Terror.
The great unknown, of course, is what might happen in America between now
and election day which might change the conversation dramatically.
"Terror becomes the trump issue and can overcome the top two," he said.
But, all in all, Zogby sees the end-game in terms of raw numbers.
Fifty-four
percent say the U.S. is on the wrong track. "There is simply no room for
the
president to grow."
Not everyone is in agreement with Zogby's assessment, as you might have
guessed.
Horace Cooper, a commentator for United Press International, flatly asserts
the pollster to be seriously in error.
"Kerry isn't likely to win this November's election. In fact he's more
likely to suffer a massive loss," Cooper says on the Web site of The
Washington Times.
Cooper says Kerry is positioned "both too far to the left and not left
enough to win." His prediction is that this leftness/unleftness will leave
the Democrat closer to 45 percent of the vote than 50 percent of it.
Meanwhile, over at The Guardian, the reading is similar. Bush is slumping,
but his ace in the hole is his "ponderous uncharismatic challenger," who is
still searching for a message. The Guardian editorialist says that while
Bush's poll numbers "look sickly to the unschooled eye," his 40 percent
support level contains good news: the president's base of "cultural and
political conservatives is holding together -- so far."
Barring some kind of paradigm-changing, cataclysmic event, Zogby sees the
election and its outcome in almost apocalyptic terms.
"Welcome to the Armageddon election," Zogby says. "I've never seen anything
like it. We're partisan and polarized and in two warring camps."
Zogby likened this year's election to the watershed election of 1800, which
saw President John Adams lose to his vice president, Thomas Jefferson. That
election was so divisive - Adams was demonized as a "royalist," while
Jefferson was reviled as "an atheist and a whoremaster" - that Americans
would call the presidency of James Madison, who succeeded Jefferson, the
"Era of Good Feelings."
Today, after years of growing polarization, the next president - whether
Bush or Kerry - will face another historic opportunity to reach out to the
other side and attempt to begin a period of healing, if not "good
feelings."
But at this point it is difficult to see the losing side accepting such an
olive branch.
But at some point we must find accommodation as a nation - even unity. I am
as certain of this one thing as John Zogby is of the outcome of the
election.
If we remain divided, we will fall. And hard.
---
Scientology tries to disrupt terrorist attacks relief efforts: http://www.cosvm.org/
"Bush is doing what's necessary to keep the military in top form." -- David Wilson
"Top form for an S&M porno." == Jingo
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| User: "DoktorDark" |
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| Title: Re: Pollster says: Prepare for Armageddon |
05 Jun 2004 08:20:39 AM |
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But is it still true that Bill Keane must die?!?
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| User: "Legume" |
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| Title: Re: Pollster says: Prepare for Armageddon |
05 Jun 2004 03:30:02 PM |
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DoktorDark wrote:
But is it still true that Bill Keane must die?!?
http://freewebhosting.hostdepartment.com/y/yoursexypenguin/textindex.html
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