http://www.strategypage.com/qnd/iraq/articles/20050930.aspx

Some Interesting Trends

September 30, 2005: Some interesting trends in the battle for Iraq. The
government offensive throughout central (Sunni Arab) Iraq is largely
being fought by Iraqi troops. American forces are almost always nearby,
and American advisors go in with the Iraqis, to advise, not supervise.
But it's mainly an Iraqi show.

This offensive has had three effects on the battle with Sunni Arab
diehards.

First, it has killed hundreds of Sunni Arab gunmen, including dozens of
al Qaeda foreigners. This included the capture of tons of weapons, bomb
making material, other equipment and documents (paper or electronic on
laptop hard drives). Prisoners and documents are quickly squeezed for
additional information by an intelligence organization that has evolved
into a highly effective "lead (to the next raid targets) generating
machine." This American intel effort doesn't get the credit it deserves,
but that's the nature of intel work, and the way the intel people prefer
it.

Second, it has forced the terrorists to largely withdraw operations from
Baghdad, and concentrate their remaining suicide bombers against targets
in the suburbs, or in other areas of central Iraq where this new
campaign is being fought. The terrorists have redoubled their efforts to
trigger a civil war between Sunni Arabs and Shia Arabs, even as their
supply of suicide bombers declines. Of course, one could say that such a
civil war has been doing on for over two years. But al Qaeda wants the
Shia Arabs to come down to their level, and massacre women and children.
This al Qaeda has been doing for over a year, and it has turned most
Iraqis, including many Sunni Arabs, against them. So far, all this al
Qaeda strategy has generated is some Shia Arab and Kurdish death squads
that round up and murder (after sometimes torturing) Sunni Arab men. Who
are the victims? Apparently they are either suspected Sunni Arab
terrorists, or men who once worked for Saddams vast security apparatus,
and are being hunted by the kin of their victims. So far, the Shia Arabs
and Kurds aren't interested in killing innocents, because there are so
many Sunni Arab men with blood on their hands. Al Qaeda needs true blood
lust from the (non-Sunni Arab) majority of Iraqis, in order, it appears
(nothing is obvious with al Qaeda) to trigger enough dead Sunni Arabs to
cause neighboring Sunni Arab states to, to, to do what? Order an oil
embargo to force coalition forces to leave Iraq, while at the same time
invading Iraq to put the Sunni Arabs back in control? But the majority
of Sunni Arabs don't want an al Qaeda style religious dictatorship, they
prefer another Saddam Hussein (preferably a kinder and gentler one). So
a Sunni Arab victory would be followed by another civil war between
religious Sunni Arabs, led by al Qaeda, and the secular majority, led by
Saddam's Baath Party. With that kind of future to look forward to, it's
no wonder Sunni Arab morale is in the dumps.

Third, the ongoing violence has caused a shift in Sunni Arab attitudes.
Not a big one, they still believe they should be running Iraq. But there
is a kind of resignation. While the Americans have not turned out to be
invincible, they have been unbeatable. And the Shia Arab government gets
stronger and stronger. Neighboring Sunni Arab states have not made any
overt moves to aid the Sunni Arab Iraqis. Indeed, the neighboring
countries openly condemn the Sunni Arab terrorism. Many Sunni Arabs just
want peace, and some prosperity. They all know that prosperity has
returned to the Kurdish north, where there has been peace, and freedom
from Saddam, for over a decade. Even in the Shia Arab south, two years
of peace have made lives noticeably easier and better. Sunni Arabs want
that, and they are willing to stop killing to get it.

On the downside, there's no let up in the extent of corruption and lack
of civic spirit among so many Iraqis. The tribal mentality, and
"everything is for sale" attitudes are not only alien (at least in terms
of degree) to Americans, but a serious obstacle to getting anything done
in Iraq. These bad habits are not unique to Iraq, but pervade the entire
Arab world. Expats who have spent decades working in Arab countries can
entertain you for hours with bitter-sweet stories of the self-
destructive habits they have encountered among Arabs. Americans are
getting their faces rubbed in these unsavory customs and it's not a
pretty sight. Working with an ally whose favorite target is his own foot
can be an unsettling experience. There are exceptions. Many Iraqis
understand that honest dealings, and making an effort for Iraq, not just
their immediate family or clan, is the key to future peace and
prosperity. But these civic minded Iraqis are considered aberrations in
their own country, and are often marked for death. Iraqi can be pacified
by force, that has been done many times in the past. But the battle for
Iraq's soul will determine of the future will be better, or just more of
the past.