Rise of moral issues produces a shift right beyond the Democrats
By David Usborne in Fort Lauderdale

Call it the anti-Janet Jackson boob vote, if you like. The pro-gun
vote, the anti-gay marriage vote or the Jesus vote.

For all the strategising in both parties on which of the key popular
concerns was most likely to win the election for their candidate -
would it be Iraq, terrorism or matters of the wallet? - it may have
been none of the above that will end up driving the final result. The
trump card appears to have been moral issues.

When they look back at Election 2004, political historians will see
one trend above all others and it clearly worked in favour of George
Bush and against John Kerry. Voters, especially those in the heartland
states, took moral values as their core standard in deciding which
candidate to support.

Indeed, this may emerge as the most surprising finding to emerge. Even
if it meant voting against their more obvious economic interests and
even when they harboured misgivings on Iraq, voters everywhere found
themselves guided by moral issues first. Family values means less
about food on the table than about God at the table.

And as these questions come to the fore, so the country appears to
have shifted culturally to the right. Strikingly, ballot initiatives
to ban marriage for same-sex couples were before voters in 11 states -
and they passed in all of them. In some, even existing domestic
partnership rights will now be taken away. Perhaps the country was
always thus, but either way it will give Democrats grave reason to
worry. Their man was a Catholic, a war hero and yet he still failed to
connect with the country's conservative mainstream. Can a candidate
with remotely socially liberal positions win in America again?

For evidence of what happened, you need look no further than
exit-polling numbers. Most surprisingly, a Los Angeles Times national
survey found that more than half of voters for Mr Bush cited moral
issues as the principal reason for their support. They were more
important to his supporters even than terrorism.

And then look at what was in the heads of Kerry supporters. They cited
the economy as their top concern over moral issues by a margin of
about two to one. Another survey taken in the three most important
battleground states found that moral issues were first on the agenda
of Bush voters in Ohio and were almost their top concern in Florida
and Pennsylvania, coming second only to terrorism.

The political polarisation of America is thus also a cultural one. And
deepening that division are matters of religious affiliation and
degrees of religious zeal. About one-fifth of voters describe
themselves as born-again Christians and on Tuesday they voted
enthusiastically for Mr Bush as "one of them", by a margin of roughly
four to one. Among regular church-goers Mr Bush was the winner
handily. Mr Kerry fared better with occasional worshippers.

It is part of what appears to have lost Florida for Mr Kerry. The
incumbent took more than half of the Protestant and Catholic vote in
the state - and about eight in 10 Floridians belong to one of those
religions. "As a Christian, Bush upholds the morals and values that I
believe the constitution was built on," explained one voter, Brett
Williamson, a 20-year-old student in Tallahassee.

"I believe in many of the same values as he does - against same-sex
marriage, and not taking God out of the constitution," echoed Chris
Pierson, a nurse, in the Orlando area.

For decades, the Democratic Party depended on inner-city churches,
many of them Baptist with mostly black congregations, to bring out
crucial chunks of support on election day. Now the Church factor has
become powerful for Republicans instead. Around the country, they were
a crucial force in encouraging Bush voters to register and to vote.

Mr Kerry's big mistake? Maybe that he simply couldn't shake the
liberal label Mr Bush plastered on him. "Kerry came across as more
liberal than Gore," argues Eric Buermann, chief lawyer for the
Republicans in Miami. "It didn't appeal to middle-of-the road voters."

If perceived liberalism is a handicap in Florida, it seems to be
poison in the heartland states. And that is where the Democrats will
have to do some serious thinking. "On values," remarked Nebraska's
governor, Mike Johanns, "they are really non-competitive in the
heartland."

Mr Kerry went goose hunting. He withheld offering support for gay
marriage. He talked tough on defence and the military. But still it
was not enough. He could cite economic statistics till the cows came
home. But where there are cows in America, there are fewer and fewer
Democrats.

http://news.independent.co.uk/world/americas/story.jsp?story=579264