Middle Eastern Christians defy stereotypes
The Risks of Regime Change
Middle Eastern Christians might end up more repressed under democracy than
under dictators.
by Derek Hoffmann | posted 03/18/2005 09:00 a.m.
Recent U.S. Iraq policy has moved from toppling a genocidal autocrat to
seeking to create a pluralist, prosperous Arab democracy and inducing
neighboring regimes to replicate it. The mainstream media discuss what
this might mean for the region at large, but what about for Christians in
the Middle East? What does this policy portend for them? If one were to
perform a risk analysis for churches as one does for corporationssomething
I do for a livingwhat would be the inherent risks for churches,
particularly evangelical churches, in the Middle East at this time?
Minority of a Minority
Evangelicals in the Middle East are primarily the legacy of American
Presbyterian missionary efforts in the 19th century. They are clustered in
Lebanon, Syria, Jordan, the Palestinian areas, and Egypt. In Cairo's
Shubra district alone, 40 congregations meet, in addition to Kasr Dubara
in the heart of downtown, which is the largest evangelical church in the
Arab world, and one of the largest in Africa. Its Sunday evening worship
service packs two thousand believers. Alexandria, on the Mediterranean
coast, boasts seven churches, and believers populate other towns north and
south, as well as some of the tiny villages nestled in verdant fields
hugging the Nile.
In Damascus, Syria, one church's huge neon sign boldly proclaims Yesua
Noor Al Alam (Jesus, Light of the World). The presence of this and six
other evangelical congregations shows that the climate is considerably
more permissive than when the apostle Paul had to sneak out of town in a
basket. A revival is taking place among Orthodox and Catholic churches in
Syria and Iraq, and in Iraq, at least five evangelical churches dot the
map.
Still, Middle Eastern evangelicals remain a minority of a minority.
Believers in the ancient branchesthe Copts, Syrians, Greek Orthodox,
Armenians, Roman Catholics, Maronites, Nestorians, Assyrians, Chaldeans,
and othersmake up only about 20 million of the 450 million inhabitants of
the Middle East and North Africa region. Evangelicals number only a
million.
As a small minority, the churches of the Middle East face three principle
risks due to the recent political changes in Iraq.
1. Increasing Intolerance Christians remain relatively safe under
autocracies that allow some measure of discrimination while generally
protecting Christians. Arab rulers are more interested in preserving their
power than pursuing a religious agenda. They want to maintain social
orderkeep crime rates, political opposition, and social unrest to a
minimum. If Islamist extremists start a campaign of violence against
Christians, the average Middle Eastern autocrat often intervenes to
protect them.
The generally good relations between most evangelicals and their Muslim
neighbors in the Arab world prevail thanks to their shared ethnic and
national identity (one exception to this is the periodic clashes between
Egyptian Muslims and Copts). And in most countries Christians are free to
practice their faith, though governments differ on whether to allow church
plants, with Egypt being very restrictive, Syria less so.
All Middle Eastern nations prohibit Christians from sharing the gospel,
yet interfaith dialogue does exist. In some countries, Christians can even
legally distribute religious literature, provided they sell it.
With Arab regimes firmly entrenched, the status quo is likely to persist
for some time. But if democracy does become the norm in the Middle East,
some countries could elect Islamist regimes, which tend to repress
Christians. Throughout the Middle East, whenever Islamist parties have
stood for election they have usually won. And the Islamist parties are
becoming more popular.
Then again, Islamism doesn't have to lead to an Iranian-style theocracy,
where an ultraconservative interpretation of Islam is enforced and
Christians are subjugated. The best-case scenario for Christians in an
Islamist state would be marginalization.
One example of what marginalization looks like might be seen in Egypt, one
of the more moderate governments in the Middle East. One evangelical in
Cairo says that Muslims treat Christians well, but also says prejudice
still exists. For example, some university professors dock the students'
grades when they notice their Christian names. Such bias will continue to
limit how high Christians can rise in society. It will also prompt them to
emigrate to the West.
The worst-case scenario is that Christians under a democratically elected
Islamist regime would be persecuted by the state and possibly hindered
from practicing their faith.
2. Greater Vulnerability to Violence Ironically, in a purely democratic
polity, Middle Eastern Christians would be much less protected from
sectarian and terrorist violence than they are now. This is because
popularly elected Islamist regimes would be less inclined to shield
Christians from the sort of terrorist attacks and intimidation that
prevail in Iraq's Sunni Triangle and that compose part of international
terrorists' global strategy.
Even Syriaone Arab regime that is not in the U.S. camp yet and in general
incurs as much of Al Qaeda's wrath as does the United Statesis inclined to
protect Christians and other religious minorities. In the case of
sectarian tensions that might pit Muslim citizens against Christians,
Islamists would probably be slower to intervene, more apt to side with
fellow Muslims, and even less sensitive to international criticism
regarding human rights than Arab leaders are today.
Iraqi Christians, for example, are especially vulnerable to political and
criminal violence now that Saddam has been deposed. David Mack, vice
president of Washington's Middle East Institute and a former diplomat in
Iraq, says that despite Saddam's severe repression of the Kurds and Shiite
Muslims, "the Iraqi Baath Party reversed many of the discriminatory
aspects of previous Iraqi government practice in dealing with Iraq's
various Christian minorities."
So far Iraqi evangelical churches have not been attacked, if you don't
count recent threats to individuals and churches in Baghdad. They're
fairly safe in part because there are so few of them and their places of
worship are relatively unseen. But the Catholic, Chaldean, and Assyrian
churches, whose buildings are more visible, have been targeted. The worst
attacks fell on August 2, 2004, when terrorists affiliated with Abu Musab
al-Zarqawi hit four Baghdad churches and one in Mosul, killing 11 people
and wounding more than 50 others. Criminals routinely abduct Christian
hostages and threaten to kill them unless their families pay a ransom. To
them, Christians are an easy target: They are unprotected by tribe or
government, and they don't retaliate.
3. More Social Ostracism Many Middle Easterners already shun Christians
for their perceived links to Western values and policies. This is unfair
since many Arab Christians oppose U.S. intervention in Iraq as well as the
West's decadent values. Although some Christians believe the American Iraq
policy is divinely blessed because of President Bush's faith, most don't.
Images of thousands of Iraqi civilians killed and wounded in the course of
hostilities and the horrors of Abu Ghraib prison override any sense of God
blessing the war. Many resent what they see as President Bush's mixing of
political and religious rhetoric, which has made it easy for Arab media to
portray the war as a "crusade."
Be that as it may, Middle Easterners continue to identify the United
States as a Christian nation, and Christianity as a faith that supports
U.S. policies and social morals. Again, even if democracies are formed
throughout the Middle East, it is likely Islamist governments will be
elected. In that case, just as violence might increase against Christians,
so would social ostracism for perceived links with the West.
Uncertain Future
Both Arab Christians and the U.S. government have benefited from the
political status quo in the Arab world. But they also know that it is
volatile. Some Middle Eastern Muslims are increasingly frustrated with
regimes they feel are not sufficiently religious and are unable to deliver
jobs. Regime changes eventually must come, and with them substantial risks
for both Christians and U.S. interests. Washington hopes it can shepherd
change by using Iraq as a model for a tolerant, economically viable Arab
democracy that will protect the rights of its minorities, including
Christians, and that other countries will view this success as a goal to
emulate. In Iraq, many believe this venture will take years to achieve.
While Christians in the Kurdish and Shiite areas may be relatively safer,
the situation in the Sunni heartland will continue to be extremely
dangerous in the foreseeable future. Believers in Syria have reported that
countless Iraqi Christians who have fled there from their homeland are
"sick at heart" over the prevailing chaos and wonder if they can ever
return.
Yet at least one positive result of Iraqi Christians' hardships is that
growing numbers of them have reportedly been gathering to acknowledge
their dependence on God, and seek his deliverance for their families and
their nation. They need our prayers too.
Derek Hoffmann is an Egypt-based risk analyst for TranSecur Inc., and will
soon enter the U.S. Foreign Service.
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