| Topic: |
Sociology > Education |
| User: |
"Dana" |
| Date: |
21 Dec 2005 11:36:20 PM |
| Object: |
Intelligent Design is a statistical study |
http://www.godandscience.org/evolution/intelligentdesign.html
Can Intelligent Design (ID) be a Testable, Scientific Theory?
What is Intelligent Design (ID)?
In essence, ID is a statistical study in which the product is unlikely to
occur by naturalistic process alone. For many things, especially in the
arena of biology, it is difficult or impossible at this time to generate any
kind of statistical model to even do the test. However, this will not always
be the case. The biological model for ID will stand or fall on the basis of
genetics. There is a certain statistical probability for mutations, which is
absolutely known. There are also known genetic sequences that differ from
one another. Evolution claims that all life is descended from previous life,
and the fossil record gives us the approximate time at which species
appeared. Statistical calculations can be made on the basis of divergence.
Complete genomic sequences are just beginning to be completed. There will
always be some unknowns or uncertainties, so the level of ID will have to be
pretty good to be accepted by the general scientific community.
Is Intelligent Design (ID) a valid scientific theory?
ID theory has been criticized on the following basis:
No model has been presented
Since there is no model, there are no predictions from the theory
No refinement of the theory is possible
In an attempt to be all-inclusive, most ID proponents have failed to
define the Intelligent Designer
reject young-earth creationism
A nebulous theory can never be tested. The Designer must be proposed or
there will be no model to test. Most of the potential Designers are
described in religious works that contain statements about the natural world
that can be tested against the record of the natural world. For this reason,
it is necessary to identify the Designer. Because of the failure to reject
the poor "science" of young earth creationism, ID has been labeled as a
repackaging of scientific creationism. Deceptive or unsupported "science"
cannot be allowed to be part of ID or the entire concept will be
discredited.
The claim has been made that ID has no place in science and is never used in
the study of science. This is not true. In fact, all of the following areas
of science use evidence of ID as the major or sole means of study. Even
though the designer is not a supernatural agent, but intelligent humans, the
principles involved in studying these areas of science can be applied to the
study of supernatural ID.
Archeology: Is that rock formation natural or due to intelligent design?
Anthropology: Do sharp, pointed rocks occur naturally or are they designed
by intelligent beings?
Forensics: Intelligent cause of death or natural circumstances?
SETI: Are those radio signals natural or caused by intelligent beings?
ID is already used in many areas of science. In archeology, we know that
stones don't naturally occur in square shapes piled on top of each other.
They show signs of intelligent design (although the designer is not
supernatural). A recent example is an underwater rock formation off the
coast of Cuba. According to the discoverers, the formation consist of
smooth, geometrically shaped, granite-like rocks that are laid out in
structures resembling pyramids, roads and other structures at more than
2,000 feet in a 7-3/4 mile-square area. How does it exhibit intelligent
design? Natural formations of rocks do not have geometric shapes arranged in
recognizable structures.
Likewise, rocks do not naturally have pointed ends with patterns of chips
along the sides. This pattern is extremely unlikely through natural
processes, so we say that it exhibits intelligent design. In the science of
forensics, scientists examine patterns of trauma, for example, to determine
if it has a natural or intelligent cause. ID is already used in many areas
of science.
Probably the best example is the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence
(SETI). Radio waves can be produced by a variety of natural and
"intelligent" processes. Naturally-produced radio waves exhibit patterns of
changes in wavelength that are due to random or periodic variation over
time. There is no pattern that would indicate any kind of intelligence
designed the signal. However, over short periods of time, the pattern could
occur by chance with the probability inversely related to the length of time
that the signal demonstrates a pattern. Therefore, by examining the signal
statistically, scientists can determine if its cause is intelligent or
natural. Thus far, intelligent design theory has eliminated (falsified) all
extraterrestrial examples of radio waves monitored as being the product of
intelligent design.
Characteristics of a successful ID model
A reasonable ID model must possess all of the following characteristics:
The intelligent Designer is identified
The model is detailed
The model can be refined
The model is testable and falsifiable
The model can make predictions
How does the biblical ID model score on the above characteristics? The
intelligent Designer is identified as the Creator God of the Bible. The
biblical model of creation is detailed in that the major creation events are
listed in a temporal sequence. Dozens of creation passages make specific
claims about the nature of the world. The model can be refined by putting
together all the biblical creation passages into a coherent, detailed model.
Many skeptics claim that ID models cannot be tested, but then go on to state
that the biblical descriptions of nature are incorrect. You can't have it
both ways! A biblically-based ID model is eminently testable and
falsifiable. Contrary to the claims of opponents, the biblical model does
make predictions. For example, it claims that all men are descended from one
man, Noah, whereas women come from up to 4 different blood lines (see
Genesis 6). One would predict from this claim that males would have lower
genetic variability on their y-chromosomes, compared to the mitochondrial
DNA (mtDNA), which is passed on exclusively through women. Published
scientific studies confirm this biblical prediction, since the last common
ancestor dates for the y-chromosome tend to be less than that for mtDNA (see
Evolutionary Descent of Mankind Theory- Disproved by Molecular Biology).
Contrary to atheistic assertions, the Christian ID model does not claim that
the universe is perfect. The idea that a perfect God would not create a
universe less than "perfect" is logically flawed. The biblical model states
that the universe is flawed - for the purpose of allowing humans the choice
to love or reject God. The model also states that this imperfect universe
will be replaced by a perfect universe once its purpose has been fulfilled.
Those humans who chose to love God will be perfected by their own permission
into sinless, loving creatures. Why didn't God create this perfect universe
in the first place? Forcing creatures to be perfect would abrogate their
free will and prevent them expressing true love, since they would have no
choice. Humans who want to spend eternity with God chose now to give up
their ability to sin or be unloving in the future new universe, where no
such choices will exist.
Predictions of the Christian ID model compared to naturalism
Because of the nature of the laws of physics, it seems likely that none of
the characteristics in the above table can be absolutely known. However,
there are a number of predictions that each theory makes, which can be
tested by further study of the universe and life on the earth.What is the
scorecard so far? Science tells us that:
There is no evidence for more than one universe or one creation event.
Examples of fine tuning continue to increase. Some parameters designed to
within a part in 10120.
No other rocky planets have been found. Most planets found are large gas
giants orbiting very close to their stars.
No other life found. SETI has been completely unsuccessful.
It is impossible to chemically produce many basic molecules required for any
living system.
Neither the biochemical nor replicative pathways have been described. In
fact, many scientists think that they could not have arisen by any
naturalistic means.
Contrary to the expectations of evolutionary theory, the fossil record is
replete with complex transitions and new designs whereas simple transitions
(intermediates) are rare. Evolutionary theory would expect the opposite to
be true and to be reflected in the fossil record.
Evolution predicts slow recovery following extinctions and that those
recoveries will be filled by the species surviving the extinction event.
However, the fossil record indicates rapid recovery with completely
different designs and species appearing within a period of tens of thousands
of years or less.
--
The fundamental principle of our Constitution . . . enjoins [requires] that
the will of the majority shall prevail.
George Washington
--------------------------------------------------------------
The will of the majority [is] the natural law of every society [and] is the
only sure guardian of the rights of man. Perhaps even this may sometimes
err. But its errors are honest, solitary and short-lived
Though the will of the majority is in all cases to prevail, that will to be
rightful must be reasonable - the minority possess their equal rights which
equal law must protect
Thomas Jefferson
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| User: "" |
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| Title: Re: Intelligent Design is a statistical study |
22 Dec 2005 03:04:08 PM |
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<snip>
Ooh! Statistics which amount to "If I go back in time and
kill my grandpa, what happens?"
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| User: "Secret Squirrel" |
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| Title: Re: Intelligent Design is a statistical study |
23 Dec 2005 01:12:52 PM |
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-----BEGIN PGP SIGNED MESSAGE-----
man_in_black529@yahoo.com wrote in
news:1135285448.882447.231770@g44g2000cwa.googlegroups.com:
<snip>
Ooh! Statistics which amount to "If I go back in time and
kill my grandpa, what happens?"
Say for instance this:
One would predict from this claim that males would have
lower genetic variability on their y-chromosomes, compared
to the mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA), which is passed on
exclusively through women. Published scientific studies
confirm this biblical prediction, since the last common
ancestor dates for the y-chromosome tend to be less than
that for mtDNA
Lots of things wrong with this: the assumption of more-or-
less monogamous mating patterns, the fact that the y
chromosome in men may be *shrinking* over time and hence
losing variation, and the fact that certain types of DNA
testing, like radioactive dating, has limits to its useful
applicability. I know for instance, from my own limited
experience, that mt-DNA testing isn't worth much after 40
million years; you've maxed out on the allowable variation.
So, not a surprise.
Secret Squirrel
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| User: "" |
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| Title: Re: Intelligent Design is a statistical study |
24 Dec 2005 12:39:47 AM |
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Secret Squirrel wrote:
One would predict from this claim that males would have
lower genetic variability on their y-chromosomes, compared
to the mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA), which is passed on
exclusively through women. Published scientific studies
confirm this biblical prediction, since the last common
ancestor dates for the y-chromosome tend to be less than
that for mtDNA
Lots of things wrong with this: the assumption of more-or-
less monogamous mating patterns,
I don't know why creationists keep assuming monogamy,
given the Bible.
the fact that the y
chromosome in men may be *shrinking* over time and hence
losing variation, and the fact that certain types of DNA
testing, like radioactive dating, has limits to its useful
applicability.
Mass genocide comes to mind. And several of them have
occurred in recorded history. Come to think of it, several
of them occurred in the Bible. We even have a term for it:
Genetic drift. But don't expect IDers to know ANYTHING
about DNA.
I know for instance, from my own limited
experience, that mt-DNA testing isn't worth much after 40
million years; you've maxed out on the allowable variation.
3 billion base pairs (and that's the entire human genome).
1 copying error per million base pairs. You do the math.
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| User: "Christopher A. Lee" |
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| Title: Re: Intelligent Design is a statistical study |
24 Dec 2005 09:29:22 AM |
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On 23 Dec 2005 22:39:47 -0800, wrote:
Secret Squirrel wrote:
One would predict from this claim that males would have
lower genetic variability on their y-chromosomes, compared
to the mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA), which is passed on
exclusively through women. Published scientific studies
confirm this biblical prediction, since the last common
ancestor dates for the y-chromosome tend to be less than
that for mtDNA
Lots of things wrong with this: the assumption of more-or-
less monogamous mating patterns,
I don't know why creationists keep assuming monogamy,
given the Bible.
Or why they ignore the love between David and Jonothan.
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| User: "" |
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| Title: Re: Intelligent Design is a statistical study |
24 Dec 2005 04:44:10 PM |
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Christopher A. Lee wrote:
I don't know why creationists keep assuming monogamy,
given the Bible.
Or why they ignore the love between David and Jonothan.
Watch it. Now Jeff will go on about how your reality
has been 'homosexualized'. The only thing I have to
homosexualize is this jean jacket my mom gave me for
Christmas one year. Although I could stop wearing the
left earring.
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| User: "Gray Shockley" |
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| Title: Re: Intelligent Design is a statistical study |
09 Jan 2006 03:57:51 PM |
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On Sat, 24 Dec 2005, wrote:
Christopher A. Lee wrote:
I don't know why creationists keep assuming monogamy,
given the Bible.
Or why they ignore the love between David and Jonothan.
Watch it. Now Jeff will go on about how your reality
has been 'homosexualized'. The only thing I have to
homosexualize is this jean jacket my mom gave me for
Christmas one year. Although I could stop wearing the
left earring.
Oh, no! Keep it there.
It's a /great/ improvement over the tongues
with earrings (tonguerings?).
Green hair is, at least, moderately amusing.
Gray Shockley
------------------
Yellow Bushie, Yellow Bushie;
You're lying through your tushie.
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| User: "" |
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| Title: Re: Intelligent Design is a statistical study |
09 Jan 2006 05:20:32 PM |
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Gray Shockley wrote:
I don't know why creationists keep assuming monogamy,
given the Bible.
Or why they ignore the love between David and Jonothan.
Watch it. Now Jeff will go on about how your reality
has been 'homosexualized'. The only thing I have to
homosexualize is this jean jacket my mom gave me for
Christmas one year. Although I could stop wearing the
left earring.
Oh, no! Keep it there.
Um, no, the right earring without the left one is
supposed to be an old gay signal. I don't know how
true it is.
We could always have the Fab Five homosexualize
all our wardrobes.
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| User: "Thurisaz, Germanic barbarian" |
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| Title: Intelligent Design is nonsense |
22 Dec 2005 01:09:16 AM |
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Dana wrote:
In essence, ID is a statistical study in which the product is unlikely to
occur by naturalistic process alone.
As we say in Germany: "Traue keiner Statistik, die du nicht selbst gefälscht
hast" (Never trust any statistic unless you forged it yourself).
Present any statistic you want, IDiocy is unscientific from the very start.
And I have yet to see even one single pro-IDiocy "argument" that is NOT
completely, moronically wrong.
--
"To his friend a man a friend shall prove,
And gifts with gifts requite;
But men shall mocking with mockery answer,
And fraud with falsehood meet."
(The Poetic Edda)
Must have been written with fundies in mind...
Why I am not a christian:
http://www.carcosa.de/nojebus/nojebus
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| User: "Sanitys little helper" |
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| Title: Re: Intelligent Design is a statistical study |
22 Dec 2005 10:16:57 AM |
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So is eugenics.
------------------------------------------------
Eat, drink and be merry, for tomorrow we eat, drink and be merry.
D Silverman BAAWA and bar.
AA #2208
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