| Topic: |
Science > Physics |
| User: |
"Sitting Ape" |
| Date: |
30 Nov 2005 08:27:48 AM |
| Object: |
mathermatician says he can predict the future. |
Here is an article in German, it is well worth running it through a translation.
What Professor John Casti basically says is in fact already common knowledge for
some people, wel at least for me.
That the 'group' awarenes can be used for predictions is in a way obvious...
How does this apply to sci.physics: Einsteinians the trend is over.
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| User: "Sam Wormley" |
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| Title: Re: mathermatician says he can predict the future. |
30 Nov 2005 08:44:14 AM |
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Hell, I hold a degree in mathematics, and I predict that there
will be a total solar eclipse of the sun by the moon on August
21, 2017... and that it (the shadow track) will cut across the
state of Nebraska (among other places).
I call that predicting the future! So what's the bid deal?
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| User: "Jan Panteltje" |
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| Title: Re: mathermatician says he can predict the future. |
30 Nov 2005 09:04:49 AM |
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On a sunny day (Wed, 30 Nov 2005 14:44:14 GMT) it happened Sam Wormley
<swormley1@mchsi.com> wrote in <1Vijf.581413$x96.157975@attbi_s72>:
Hell, I hold a degree in mathematics, and I predict that there
will be a total solar eclipse of the sun by the moon on August
21, 2017... and that it (the shadow track) will cut across the
state of Nebraska (among other places).
I call that predicting the future! So what's the bid deal?
perhaps that if group awareness is strong enough, then they will think it is
the shadow of an alien spaceship that is attacking earth and fire in the sky.
So not so much the REALITY of the physical event, but what people think it means
(sign of God, end of times, what not), determines what people will DO with it.
And what they will do (burn all science books? or whatever) has a much greater
impact for the future of humanity then a few moments of shadow.
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| User: "Ian Parker" |
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| Title: Re: mathermatician says he can predict the future. |
30 Nov 2005 02:14:16 PM |
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The big deal is that the artilcle is predicting human behaviour. There
are things that can be predicted by Newtonian (modified by GR in case
of Mercury) dynamics. The Moon is extremely predicable. There is chaos
where we know things cannot in priunciple be predicted. In fact the 2
body problem is very predictable, the 3 body is not. Go to Venus,
return to earth, Venus again, then Jupiter then Saturn and you need mid
cousre guidance, you have chaos.
Casti is no doubt using a neural network approach. The fact that it
works gives the lie to what arts people say about the non
predictability of human behaviour. In the mass it is predictable.
The size and shape of suicide bombing belts is probably more important
than the length of skirts (Rocke). Could calculations of this sort
a) Predict the end of the insurgency in Iraq.
b) Give us "hearts and minds" insights.
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| User: "Sitting Ape" |
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| Title: Re: mathermatician says he can predict the future. |
30 Nov 2005 08:30:27 AM |
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On a sunny day (Wed, 30 Nov 2005 14:27:48 GMT) it happened Sitting Ape
<bisons@pushon.edu> wrote in <dmkctc$ds4$1@news.datemas.de>:
Here is an article in German, it is well worth running it through a translation.
And here is the link:
http://www.heise.de/tr/aktuell/meldung/66780
What Professor John Casti basically says is in fact already common knowledge for
some people, wel at least for me.
That the 'group' awarenes can be used for predictions is in a way obvious...
How does this apply to sci.physics: Einsteinians the trend is over.
.
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| User: "Roger Bagula" |
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| Title: Re: mathermatician says he can predict the future. |
30 Nov 2005 01:16:06 PM |
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Large stock market companies have been paying lots of money to market
analysis companies for a long time to do just this sort of thing.
The problem on their level is more if everyone knows which way things
are going to go, how can you benefit most from the information knowing
that the other people with a lot of money and reseach know the same thing.
That's games theory, not prediction.
If you have less money to invest, then the guy with more money can
usually buy the outcome he wants if he has the same information, but
the small invester with more information can win even then.
I can predict right now that next year the gulf coast will have higher
than historical hurricane activity due to global warming.
It doesn't make me look smart...
it is just science in action.
All Casti is saying is that we have a better idea of what is ahead than
ever before and certain predictions can be made if current trends
continue. He is actually not saying anything that the Club of Rome
didn't say better (with more simulations done 20 years ago) , is he?
Sitting Ape wrote:
On a sunny day (Wed, 30 Nov 2005 14:27:48 GMT) it happened Sitting Ape
<bisons@pushon.edu> wrote in <dmkctc$ds4$1@news.datemas.de>:
Here is an article in German, it is well worth running it through a translation.
And here is the link:
http://www.heise.de/tr/aktuell/meldung/66780
What Professor John Casti basically says is in fact already common knowledge for
some people, wel at least for me.
That the 'group' awarenes can be used for predictions is in a way obvious...
How does this apply to sci.physics: Einsteinians the trend is over.
.
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| User: "David Kastrup" |
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| Title: Re: mathermatician says he can predict the future. |
30 Nov 2005 09:13:45 AM |
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Sitting Ape <bisons@pushon.edu> writes:
Here is an article in German, it is well worth running it through a
translation.
You forgot the article in your excitement.
What Professor John Casti basically says is in fact already common
knowledge for some people, wel at least for me. That the 'group'
awarenes can be used for predictions is in a way obvious...
How does this apply to sci.physics: Einsteinians the trend is over.
Spoken like a true Pythagorean. Popularity certainly has its
influences, but it can't make problems just go away by decree.
Relativity has the rather annoying trait that its predictions work
rather well. It certainly stands to reason that it will in due times
be refined and/or replaced by something which works even better
describing natural phenomena.
But you are aiming to have it replaced by something which does not
work.
Unfortunately, it is even worse for a theory if it happens to be wrong
than it is if it happens to be hard to understand.
--
David Kastrup, Kriemhildstr. 15, 44793 Bochum
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| User: "Jan Panteltje" |
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| Title: Re: mathermatician says he can predict the future. |
30 Nov 2005 02:24:41 PM |
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On a sunny day (Wed, 30 Nov 2005 16:13:45 +0100) it happened David Kastrup
<dak@gnu.org> wrote in <853blenp7a.fsf@lola.goethe.zz>:
Sitting Ape <bisons@pushon.edu> writes:
Here is an article in German, it is well worth running it through a
translation.
You forgot the article in your excitement.
Link is in the next one.
What Professor John Casti basically says is in fact already common
knowledge for some people, wel at least for me. That the 'group'
awarenes can be used for predictions is in a way obvious...
How does this apply to sci.physics: Einsteinians the trend is over.
Spoken like a true Pythagorean. Popularity certainly has its
influences, but it can't make problems just go away by decree.
Relativity has the rather annoying trait that its predictions work
rather well. It certainly stands to reason that it will in due times
be refined and/or replaced by something which works even better
describing natural phenomena.
But you are aiming to have it replaced by something which does not
work.
Unfortunately, it is even worse for a theory if it happens to be wrong
than it is if it happens to be hard to understand.
mmm, Einstein sort of noticed inertia and that other thingy always measured
the same.
He build some formulas on that.
Give you an example (physics - analogy -), you know long time ago it was found
that if you increased voltage across a resistor, then the current
proportionally increased.
This is now known as Ohms law (I = U / R) (U is voltage here in Europe).
Now one COULD say:
'Great current is controlled by voltage-resistance, and low and behold,
electrons are not in the picture (formula), so we need no electrons.'
(as in: '.. is controlled by space-time, and ether is not in the equation,
so we need no ether'.
What more can I say?
No electrons no electronics no radio, no TV, no cell-phones,
IN THE SAME WAY:
No ether no anti gravity, no control of mass, no jumping
over large distances in space.
Maybe you can see that if all matter is wave, and gravity and inertia caused
by (wave) interaction with all the rest of the universe, then by using
the right excitations of the media the 'standing wave' can be made to move,
reappear at a different point in space -just like that-.
Machs principle.
No Einsteins dogma and formula fiddling is holding back science, and has been
for a hundred years now.
Nature will not bend to your illusions, nature is beautiful, and only
by dropping false ideas can we advance.
Einstein was not even wrong.
Here is your future.
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| User: "Roger Bagula" |
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| Title: Re: mathermatician says he can predict the future. |
30 Nov 2005 01:03:17 PM |
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Sitting Ape wrote:
Here is an article in German, it is well worth running it through a translation.
What Professor John Casti basically says is in fact already common knowledge for
some people, wel at least for me.
That the 'group' awarenes can be used for predictions is in a way obvious...
How does this apply to sci.physics: Einsteinians the trend is over.
Bable-fish translation:
TR up-to-date
30.11.2005 10:20
"bad tendency, long R?e"
The US mathematician John Casti, born 1943, works and lives gro?eils in
Vienna. Its main point of research is the analysis and simulation of
complex systems. Besides it is Mitbegr?er of the "Kenos Circle", a
combination of scientists, with the development by future scenarios
besch?igt.Bekannt themselves Casti however particularly as an author
h?st successful popul?issenschaftlicher B?er like "Paradigms draws" and
"scenarios of the future". Its new book is to appear in the coming Fr?ahr.
Announcement
Technology Review: Professor Casti, in their demn?st appearing book
maintains you, the future predict to k?en. Exciting-betrays you to us
nevertheless please your secret sounds...
Casti: Which interests me in my book, collective social Ph?mene is, not
specific individual events. In my opinion nobody can predict indivduelle
events zuverl?ig. Those happen simply - however they happen in a
context. As is the case for the weather forecast one can prognosticate
that certain classes of events with h?rer probability occur as others.
The cause daf?liegt in what I call collective social tendency - see like
humans as group the future whether they are pessimistic or optimistic or
f?en themselves simply uncertainly. The fundamental acceptance reads
that the collective social tendency is the cause of social events. For
example mode or music trends k?en at short notice its, medium-term
events like the exit of elections - up to long-term developments like
the Ver?erung of a civilization.
How do you measure social tendencies?
Casti: A good Ma?sind share indices, like the Dow Jones. These indices
repr?ntieren the bets of humans on the future. I do not trust public
opinion polls for example - there the people of all erz?en k?en. But if
they risk their money with a Investment, thus something that is really
important to them, then is that something else.
How do tendencies affect the future?
Casti: In times of positive and/or negative social tendency certain
types of events are more probable than others - f?kulturelle, in
addition, f??nomische or political Ph?mene applies. The sample, which
the changes in mood follow, is a Elliot wave in such a way specified -
and in all time periods directly, as with a Fraktal. In my opinion are
we at a turning point, ungef? since the year 2000, from a strongly
positive trend to a negative development, which will probably stop some
decades.
On what does your acceptance st?t itself that tendencies zusammenh?en
tats?lich urs?lich with material events - and that it does not act
blo?um statistic correlations?
Casti: The social tendency f?t to social events - and in reverse. W?e it
only around correlations act, do not h?en we not such consistent
samples?r all cultures away.
How does a social tendency develop according to your theory?
Casti: It begins on the individual level, in the?eren parts of the
brain, in the limbischen system. In humans a kind is
Herdenmentalit?angelegt: Humans schlie?n in groups together, develop a
group thinking, because this offers one evolution?n advantage. We see
this behavior for instance st?ig in the Business. The people say
themselves: Now, everyone believes - thus I make the same, because the
safe is. If it l?t inclined, they have an apology. If individuals begin
to believe something this faith spreads in the Bev?erung like a kind
illness. If you erz?en me somewhat, infect my brain - perhaps I am
resistant, perhaps legend I in addition, "am actually correct" - and
pass it on to the N?sten. As individual attitudes to a social tendency
consolidate themselves, a very mysterious process is?lich, a
Phasen?rgang. The tendency has consequences daf? which B?er reads
humans, whatever music it applies h?n. for long-term f?die political
attitude, f?die religion and in the long run the entire life.
For example?
Casti: A Chart in my book shows: Whenever at the time of a
Pr?dentschaftswahl the social tendency, measured on basis of the
financial market indices, is negative, the acting Pr?dent is abgew?t -
unabh?ig of it whether it made now a good or bad job: The society is
ungl?lich, and this tendency looks for itself a valve.
At which point of the tendency curve do we stand today?
Casti: I the w?e tendency in the USA, in addition, in Europe, when
describe relatively negatively. Which one sees in such periods regelm?g,
a kind polarization of the society is - falling apart into different
social groups. That shows up for instance in the enormous rise religi?n
of the fundamentalism in America. In times of the polarization more
Aktivit?an the R?ern takes place less and in the center of the society.
If the social tendency is negative, also the fear rises before Ausl?ern.
Humans f?en themselves threatened, them partition themselves. In it also
the reason f?die problems with the europ?chen unit lies: The European
Union developed in times of positive social tendency, when humans were
optimistic and hopeful. Today the people its own country, their own
culture want to besch?en before Ausl?ern. In my opinion the European
Union becomes this development does not?rleben, but when failed
experiment history enter.
Which practical consequences does your theory have?
Casti: Zun?st goes it times around whether she is correct?rhaupt. My
hypothesis contradicts diametrically the conventional view that events
and actions determine, how humans f?en. If the theory is correct, it
turned around exactly. Assumed, you are interested f?gesellschaftliche
events in a certain period - for example f?die mode trends in the n?sten
year. Then you k?ten the market movements look at yourselves and ask, in
which phase we straight find if a negative tendency prevails ourselves,
has also f?die fashion certain implications. W?end of negative
tendencies is more probable it for example that for women more be enough
R?e and dark colors to carry want. The k?te thus n?liche information
f?Sie its, if you have to do with mode.
Does your theory permit also the forecast of technology trends?
Casti: , I see certain technological Durchbr?e, for example the
invention of the transistor as individual event. But you k?en with the
method quite trends prognosticate-take we for example energy: In times
of negative tendency humans probably less energy will inquire, them w?en
will travel less and less energy f?unn?e things will consume. In such
periods?preis will tendentious sink.
That sounds somewhat simple all. Do you want tats?lich the run of
history from the mass psychology erkl?n?
Casti: I am very affected by Elias Canettis book "mass and power". I see
the mass as individual unit, not as quantity of individuals. The
behavior of a mass differs much from the behavior of the individual. It
concerns a kind Herdenmentalit? The problem with these Mentalit?ist
only: If believes all something, that is accurate the time, where one
should begin to run into the other direction.
How can one recognize such turning points?
Casti: In my book I speak of the "magazine Cover indicator": As soon as
there is any kind trend and you see this trend on the title page of a
gr?ren public magazine, then hei? : The trend is already past. This
method nearly always functions.
But how erkl? Its theory tilting social tendencies?
Casti: On the Finanzm?ten for example a dynamic tension between fear and
greed prevails. If the courses are in the cellar, there are people, the
one g?tige opportunity always sees and buying - and then a Gegentrend
develops. If the courses rise, there are however again people, which
sell their shares - and thus the course dr?en again downward. It
concerns an interaction from optimists and pessimists.
They speak of Finanzm?ten, not of social Ph?menen...
Casti: I say w?e: That is a law of human nature. The Finanzm?te reflects
in my opinion only human nature.
They?rlegen to out-praise a Pr?e f?die refutation of your hypothesis...
Casti: Is correct. I k?te myself present to offer to 100 dollar
f?ein?rzeugendes Gegenbeispiel. However I am?rzeugt that there is no
such Gegenbeispiele. The social development is a product of human
nature. There laws work firm?lich the laws of nature - even if they have
more a statistic character.
Interview: Thomas Vasek
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