| Topic: |
Science > Physics |
| User: |
"T James" |
| Date: |
12 Aug 2005 01:37:26 PM |
| Object: |
Studies Uncover Global Warming Errors |
http://www.cato.org/dispatch/08-12-05d.html#2
Studies Uncover Global Warming Errors
"Some scientists who question whether human-caused global warming poses a
threat have long pointed to records that showed the atmosphere's lowest layer,
the troposphere, had not warmed over the last two decades and had cooled in
the tropics," The New York Times reports.
"Now two independent studies have found errors in the complicated calculations
used to generate the old temperature records, which involved stitching
together data from thousands of weather balloons lofted around the world
and a series of short-lived weather satellites."
Patrick J. Michaels, Cato senior fellow in environmental studies, says:
"The newly published research indicates that satellite, weather balloon
and surface temperature trends in recent years are all nearly the same,
placing much greater confidence in the amount of global warming that is
occurring. These three different ways of measuring temperature have all
converged on a warming rate that is at or near the low limit for warming
given by scientists on the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change. These results reassure the arguments of those who say
that global warming is likely to be modest and they argue strongly
against the alarmist point of view on climate change."
In "Is Global Warming Always Bad?," Michaels writes: "Have you ever read
anything good about global warming? Why is all the news always bad? Perhaps
because there's little incentive for scientists to do anything but emphasize
the negative and the destructive. Alarming news often leads to government
funding, funding generates research, and research is the key to scientists'
professional advancement. Good news threatens that arrangement.
"This is the reality that all scientists confront: every issue, be it global
warming, cancer or AIDS, competes with other issues for a limited amount of
government research funding. And, here in Washington, no one ever received a
major research grant by stating that his or her particular issue might not be
such a problem after all."
--
..
"The Purpose and Limits of Government,"
by Roger Pilon, 1999 (PDF, screen optimized, 256 kb)
http://www.cato.org/pubs/catosletters/cl-13.pdf
(Hardcopy $1.00, call 800-767-1241)
.
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| User: "CWatters" |
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| Title: Re: Studies Uncover Global Warming Errors |
12 Aug 2005 01:26:40 PM |
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Check the graphs...
http://www.ipcc.ch/present/graphics/2001syr/large/02.01.jpg
http://www.ipcc.ch/present/graphics/2001syr/large/02.21.jpg
http://www.ipcc.ch/present/graphics/2001syr/large/05.16.jpg
more here
http://www.ipcc.ch/present/graphics.htm
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| User: "" |
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| Title: Re: Studies Uncover Global Warming Errors |
12 Aug 2005 02:04:41 PM |
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First of all, the CATO Institute is a right-wing
conservative/liberatarian think tank that 'spins' news and political
issues to support the right-wing diatribe. It is not a scientific
research organization; just conservative 'new-speak' in an effort to
discredit any news. or studies that threaten corporate or republican
political intrests. About a year ago they came out with a 'study' that
they said proved that the world was producing millions of barrles of
oil a day but that it was leaking from the bottom of the ocean floor
and there is no technology available to retreive it yet: hence, no oil
shortage. *****. Don't throw around the 'cato institute' as a
valid source; only Rush Limbaugh still does that and even he is backing
off of reference to them.
There is way too much legitimate scientific evidence that proves
that Global Warming is real, consistant and continuing at a much faster
rate than Bush and his corporate butt-buddies will admit to. Hell,
man; your own link discredits your post: "The pupose and limits of
government" with a link to buy a copy? Sure; if we just get rid of ALL
government except the military and have no laws at all, the world will
be a beutiful place. There's a difference between rose collored
glasses and just being willfully blind. There is not enough room here
to state all the evidence with substansiating links; just try to open
your mind just a little. And no; Rush is wrong, cow farts didn't cause
Global Warming. The CATO Institute slung that ***** around for
awhile too. Man, Please!!
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| User: "ccr" |
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| Title: Re: Studies Uncover Global Warming Errors |
12 Aug 2005 03:02:34 PM |
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Citing the Cato institute on environmental issues is the same as asking a
tobacco company about lung cancer.
First, they denied global warming entirely and say those reporting it are
alarmist radicals. Then, they backpedal and admit there might be some minor
naturally occuring warming and call those saying it is more than that
wrongheaded troublemakers. Now, they grudgingly admit there probably is a
small component of man made global warming but it is beneficial--and anyone
who says differently is a fanatic. Cato has been wrong every step of the
way. They are reactionary idiots.
--
"Bush wanted to remove Saddam, through military action, justified by the
conjunction of terrorism and WMD. But the intelligence and facts were being
fixed around the policy." - Sir Richard Dearlove, head of British
intelligence (from memo describing meeting with Prime Minister Tony Blair on
July 23, 2002)
"T James" <user@usenet.invalid> wrote in message
news:42fcde56_2@newspeer2.tds.net...
http://www.cato.org/dispatch/08-12-05d.html#2
Studies Uncover Global Warming Errors
"Some scientists who question whether human-caused global warming poses a
threat have long pointed to records that showed the atmosphere's lowest
layer,
the troposphere, had not warmed over the last two decades and had cooled
in
the tropics," The New York Times reports.
"Now two independent studies have found errors in the complicated
calculations
used to generate the old temperature records, which involved stitching
together data from thousands of weather balloons lofted around the world
and a series of short-lived weather satellites."
Patrick J. Michaels, Cato senior fellow in environmental studies, says:
"The newly published research indicates that satellite, weather balloon
and surface temperature trends in recent years are all nearly the same,
placing much greater confidence in the amount of global warming that is
occurring. These three different ways of measuring temperature have all
converged on a warming rate that is at or near the low limit for warming
given by scientists on the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change. These results reassure the arguments of those who say
that global warming is likely to be modest and they argue strongly
against the alarmist point of view on climate change."
In "Is Global Warming Always Bad?," Michaels writes: "Have you ever read
anything good about global warming? Why is all the news always bad?
Perhaps
because there's little incentive for scientists to do anything but
emphasize
the negative and the destructive. Alarming news often leads to government
funding, funding generates research, and research is the key to
scientists'
professional advancement. Good news threatens that arrangement.
"This is the reality that all scientists confront: every issue, be it
global
warming, cancer or AIDS, competes with other issues for a limited amount
of
government research funding. And, here in Washington, no one ever received
a
major research grant by stating that his or her particular issue might not
be
such a problem after all."
--
.
"The Purpose and Limits of Government,"
by Roger Pilon, 1999 (PDF, screen optimized, 256 kb)
http://www.cato.org/pubs/catosletters/cl-13.pdf
(Hardcopy $1.00, call 800-767-1241)
.
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| User: "Evgenij Barsukov" |
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| Title: green house gases maintenance to prevent ice-age (Re: Studies UncoverGlobal Warming Errors) |
12 Aug 2005 03:48:33 PM |
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Funny thing is that while somebody still try to question the global
warming as such, researchers who are actualy involved with the topic
went already much further than that and are looking at "what temperature
would be now if we extrapolate past historical temperature cycles at
present time". Not only does that prove that temperature now is a lot
higher than it was supposed to be (due to human activity, for the lack
of other known factors), but much more importantly, it shows
that now we were supposed to have an ice-age!
And the later poses a completely new spin to the discussion. Namely,
instead of worrying that we are "heating" the earth by entering CO2
and methan into the athomsphere, we should start worrying about "how are
we going to continue heating it, once all the oil is out". The thing is,
once we stop doing it, we will get the long overdue ice-age and the
whole civilization as we know it will be srewed.
This spin to the discussion would ask to reduce release of
green-house gases not only to prevent presently going sharp overheating
over comfortable level, but also to save enough CO2/methan producing
ingidients to release it gradualy over long period of time and to keep
temperature comfortable all over the earth despite its natural tendency
to decrease. So we realy need not "stoping" of green-house gas emission,
but "green-gase emission management and maintenance". Unless we like to
live in the ice-age of cause.
Regards,
Evgenij
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| User: "" |
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| Title: Re: Studies Uncover Global Warming Errors |
12 Aug 2005 06:50:30 PM |
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I think the best way to look at this article is in the following three
steps:
1) The first two paragraphs are quoted from the New York times, then
follows Cato's comment. Re-read to understand the mechanics of what is
said in support of what:
T James wrote:
http://www.cato.org/dispatch/08-12-05d.html#2
Studies Uncover Global Warming Errors
"Some scientists who question whether human-caused global warming poses a
threat have long pointed to records that showed the atmosphere's lowest layer,
the troposphere, had not warmed over the last two decades and had cooled in
the tropics," The New York Times reports.
"Now two independent studies have found errors in the complicated calculations
used to generate the old temperature records, which involved stitching
together data from thousands of weather balloons lofted around the world
and a series of short-lived weather satellites."
Patrick J. Michaels, Cato senior fellow in environmental studies, says:
"The newly published research indicates that satellite, weather balloon
and surface temperature trends in recent years are all nearly the same,
placing much greater confidence in the amount of global warming that is
occurring. These three different ways of measuring temperature have all
converged on a warming rate that is at or near the low limit for warming
given by scientists on the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change. These results reassure the arguments of those who say
that global warming is likely to be modest and they argue strongly
against the alarmist point of view on climate change."
[...]
2) This is what was actually printed in the NYT:
<NYT>
Some scientists who question whether human-caused global warming poses
a
threat have long pointed to records that showed the atmosphere's lowest
layer, the troposphere, had not warmed over the last two decades and
had
cooled in the tropics.
Now two independent studies have found errors in the complicated
calculations used to generate the old temperature records, which
involved
stitching together data from thousands of weather balloons lofted
around
the world and a series of short-lived weather satellites.
A third study shows that when the errors are taken into account, the
troposphere actually got warmer. Moreover, that warming trend largely
agrees with the warmer surface temperatures that have been recorded and
conforms to predictions in recent computer models.
The three papers were published yesterday in the online edition of the
journal Science.
The scientists who developed the original troposphere temperature
records
from satellite data, John R. Christy and Roy W. Spencer of the
University
of Alabama in Huntsville, conceded yesterday that they had made a
mistake
but said that their revised calculations still produced a warming rate
too
small to be a concern.
"Our view hasn't changed," Dr. Christy said. "We still have this modest
warming."
Other climate experts, however, said that the new studies were very
significant, effectively resolving a puzzle that had been used by
opponents
of curbs on heat-trapping greenhouse gases.
"These papers should lay to rest once and for all the claims by John
Christy and other global warming skeptics that a disagreement between
tropospheric and surface temperature trends means that there are
problems
with surface temperature records or with climate models," said Alan
Robock,
a meteorologist at Rutgers University.
[...]
</NYT>
3) Reflect on the fact that there were studies by only two (out of what
- twenty thousand?) climate scientists that appeared to contradict
global warming - studies that have been quoted by truth-haters like the
Cato institute in an attempt to deny global warming entirely. THESE
STUDIES were found in error! But the OP and the Cato Institute finds it
acceptable to rip two paragraphs of the NYT story out of context to
make it appear as if it was all the other studies that had been found
erroneous.
I'm the last person to defend the NYT as a reliable news source, but
when a bunch of pathological liars has to contort paragraphs out of
context to make them seem as if they were saying the direct diametrical
opposite of what they actually said, then I think it only fair to set
the record straight: The NYT was entirely clear that the global
scientific consensus on global warming is not only correct, but now
stronger than before:
<NYT>
But the new paper, by Dr. Mears and Dr. Wentz, identifies a fresh error
in
the original calculations that, more firmly than ever, showed warming
in
the troposphere, particularly in the tropics.
The error, in a calculation used to adjust for the drift of the
satellites,
was disclosed to the University of Alabama scientists at one of the
government-run meetings this year, Dr. Christy said.
The new analysis of data from weather balloons examined just one
possible
source of error, the direct heating of the instruments by the sun.
It found that when data were examined in a way that accounted for that
effect, the temperature record produced a warming, particularly in the
tropics, again putting the data in line with theory.
"Things being debated now are details about the models," said Steven
Sherwood, the lead author of the paper on the balloon data and an
atmospheric physicist at Yale. "Nobody is debating any more that
significant climate changes are coming."
</NYT>
cordially
Y.T.
--
Remove YourClothes before you email me.
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