Science > Physics > Sun's low magnetic activity may portend an ice age
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Science > Physics |
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01 Feb 2008 12:00:48 AM |
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Sun's low magnetic activity may portend an ice age |
Sun's low magnetic activity may portend an ice age
The Canadian Space Agency's radio telescope has been reporting Flux
Density Values so low they will mean a mini ice age if they continue.
Like the number of sunspots, the Flux Density Values reflect the Sun's
magnetic activity, which affects the rate at which the Sun radiates
energy and warmth. CSA project director Ken Tapping calls the radio
telescope that supplies NASA and the rest of the world with daily
values of the Sun's magnetic activity a "stethoscope on the Sun". In
this case, however, it is the "doctor" whose health is directly
affected by the readings.
This is because when the magnetic activity is low, the Sun is dimmer,
and puts out less radiant warmth. If the Sun goes into dim mode, as it
has in the past, the Earth gets much colder.
Tapping, who was originally from Kent, says that "Typically as you go
through the ten or eleven year solar activity cycle you see the
numbers go up or down. The lowest number is 64 or 68. The numbers 71
or 72 are very low, but they usually start to go up. We are at the end
of a cycle, but the numbers still haven't gone up. We have been joking
around coffee that we may be seeing the Sun about to shut down." (To
date Tapping has been far more concerned about global warming.)
These were the values released yesterday -
Density Values in sfu for 22:00 on 2008:01:30
Julian Day Number : 2454496.406
Carrington Rotation Number : 2066.207
Observed Flux Density : 0073.6
Flux Density Adjusted for 1 A.U. : 0071.4
URSI Series D Flux, Adj. x 0.9 : 0064.3
According to NASA, "early, well-documented records indicate that the
Sun went through a period of inactivity in the late 17th century" from
about 1645 to 1715, during the Maunder Minimum.
"This period of solar inactivity also corresponds to a climatic period
called the Little Ice Age when rivers that are normally ice-free froze
and snow fields remained year-round at lower altitudes." It was called
the Maunder Minimum, after Edward Maunder, a British accountant who
saw a sunspot "like a tack in the Sun" while he was walking home, and
subsequently made counting and analyzing sunspots, rather than money,
his life's work. There have been other Minimums. The Dalton Minimum of
1800 to 1810 was that period when Napoleon had his unfortunate
encounter with the Russian winter.
If the Sun's magnetic activity does not increase, and it goes dim for
an extended period, it will get quite chilly. In the meantime the
Canada Space Agency, the Royal Observatory Greenwich and the US Air
Force Solar Optical Observing Network are all keeping an eye on the
Sun.
Posted by Cat on January 31, 2008 01:06 AM
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| User: "Uncle Al" |
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| Title: Re: Sun's low magnetic activity may portend an ice age |
01 Feb 2008 02:21:33 PM |
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wrote:
Sun's low magnetic activity may portend an ice age
The Canadian Space Agency's radio telescope has been reporting Flux
Density Values so low they will mean a mini ice age if they continue.
[snip]
One Maunder Minimum wrapped to go for Albert Gore, Jr.!
If the Sun's magnetic activity does not increase, and it goes dim for
an extended period, it will get quite chilly. In the meantime the
Canada Space Agency, the Royal Observatory Greenwich and the US Air
Force Solar Optical Observing Network are all keeping an eye on the
Sun.
Test of faith! I do believe in anthropogenic Global Warming, I do I
do I do! Does that mean we tear up all the wind generator crap, solar
panel crap, fuel ethanol crap... and start building coal-fired
gigawatt power plants? China will Save The Earth! (and the polar
bears)
The sun doesn't care. In the future, everybody will agree with Uncle
Al.
--
Uncle Al
http://www.mazepath.com/uncleal/
(Toxic URL! Unsafe for children and most mammals)
http://www.mazepath.com/uncleal/lajos.htm#a2
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| User: "Rock Brentwood" |
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| Title: Re: Sun's low magnetic activity may portend an ice age |
03 Feb 2008 04:09:59 PM |
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On Feb 1, 2:21=A0pm, Uncle Al <Uncle...@hate.spam.net> wrote:
Test of faith! =A0I do believe in anthropogenic Global Warming, I do I
do I do! =A0Does that mean we tear up all the wind generator crap, solar
panel crap, fuel ethanol crap... and start building coal-fired
gigawatt power plants? =A0China will Save The Earth! (and the polar
bears)
The solar constant is 900 W/m^2. Averaging over incident surface over
the daily cycle that comes out to about 7kW-h/day per m^2.
The Sahara and Arab deserts, combined at ~ 7 x 10^12 m^2; about 50 x
10^15 W-h/day waiting to be mined.
Then, you have the outback, the Thar, the Gobi, the Mohave/Nevada/Utah
deserts, the Sonoran desert, Baja California; the newly evolving
Amazonian desert. Throw out the diamond distillery, this is the gold
mine to reap.
A new term in the vocabulary -- Omnibus Facility.
Energy input --> Hydrolysis --> Hydrogen + Oxygen generation
Energy input --> Electrical generation
Energy input + passive aquifers --> Water distillery
Water distillery --> Mineral extraction (a newly emergent technology
which this city and new faculty in the Physics department here have
positioned to become major players in)
Water distillery --> Fresh water
Water distillery --> Ocean pollutant scrubbers (also --> Mineral
extraction)
Fresh water --> Irrigation --> "2nd Agricultural Revolution" oases
Fresh water --> Water supply for population
One terawatt facility. One business. Omnibus all the way around.
The sun doesn't care. =A0In the future, everybody will agree with Uncle Al=
..
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| User: "Marvin" |
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| Title: Re: Sun's low magnetic activity may portend an ice age |
01 Feb 2008 11:21:13 AM |
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wrote:
Sun's low magnetic activity may portend an ice age
The Canadian Space Agency's radio telescope has been reporting Flux
Density Values so low they will mean a mini ice age if they continue.
Like the number of sunspots, the Flux Density Values reflect the Sun's
magnetic activity, which affects the rate at which the Sun radiates
energy and warmth. CSA project director Ken Tapping calls the radio
telescope that supplies NASA and the rest of the world with daily
values of the Sun's magnetic activity a "stethoscope on the Sun". In
this case, however, it is the "doctor" whose health is directly
affected by the readings.
This is because when the magnetic activity is low, the Sun is dimmer,
and puts out less radiant warmth. If the Sun goes into dim mode, as it
has in the past, the Earth gets much colder.
Tapping, who was originally from Kent, says that "Typically as you go
through the ten or eleven year solar activity cycle you see the
numbers go up or down. The lowest number is 64 or 68. The numbers 71
or 72 are very low, but they usually start to go up. We are at the end
of a cycle, but the numbers still haven't gone up. We have been joking
around coffee that we may be seeing the Sun about to shut down." (To
date Tapping has been far more concerned about global warming.)
These were the values released yesterday -
Density Values in sfu for 22:00 on 2008:01:30
Julian Day Number : 2454496.406
Carrington Rotation Number : 2066.207
Observed Flux Density : 0073.6
Flux Density Adjusted for 1 A.U. : 0071.4
URSI Series D Flux, Adj. x 0.9 : 0064.3
According to NASA, "early, well-documented records indicate that the
Sun went through a period of inactivity in the late 17th century" from
about 1645 to 1715, during the Maunder Minimum.
"This period of solar inactivity also corresponds to a climatic period
called the Little Ice Age when rivers that are normally ice-free froze
and snow fields remained year-round at lower altitudes." It was called
the Maunder Minimum, after Edward Maunder, a British accountant who
saw a sunspot "like a tack in the Sun" while he was walking home, and
subsequently made counting and analyzing sunspots, rather than money,
his life's work. There have been other Minimums. The Dalton Minimum of
1800 to 1810 was that period when Napoleon had his unfortunate
encounter with the Russian winter.
If the Sun's magnetic activity does not increase, and it goes dim for
an extended period, it will get quite chilly. In the meantime the
Canada Space Agency, the Royal Observatory Greenwich and the US Air
Force Solar Optical Observing Network are all keeping an eye on the
Sun.
Posted by Cat on January 31, 2008 01:06 AM
I try to worry most about things I could do something about.
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| User: "tadchem" |
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| Title: Re: Sun's low magnetic activity may portend an ice age |
04 Feb 2008 08:10:06 PM |
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On Feb 1, 1:00 am, wrote:
Sun's low magnetic activity may portend an ice age
The Canadian Space Agency's radio telescope has been reporting Flux
Density Values so low they will mean a mini ice age if they continue.
Like the number of sunspots, the Flux Density Values reflect the Sun's
magnetic activity, which affects the rate at which the Sun radiates
energy and warmth. CSA project director Ken Tapping calls the radio
telescope that supplies NASA and the rest of the world with daily
values of the Sun's magnetic activity a "stethoscope on the Sun". In
this case, however, it is the "doctor" whose health is directly
affected by the readings.
This is because when the magnetic activity is low, the Sun is dimmer,
and puts out less radiant warmth. If the Sun goes into dim mode, as it
has in the past, the Earth gets much colder.
Tapping, who was originally from Kent, says that "Typically as you go
through the ten or eleven year solar activity cycle you see the
numbers go up or down. The lowest number is 64 or 68. The numbers 71
or 72 are very low, but they usually start to go up. We are at the end
of a cycle, but the numbers still haven't gone up. We have been joking
around coffee that we may be seeing the Sun about to shut down." (To
date Tapping has been far more concerned about global warming.)
These were the values released yesterday -
Density Values in sfu for 22:00 on 2008:01:30
Julian Day Number : 2454496.406
Carrington Rotation Number : 2066.207
Observed Flux Density : 0073.6
Flux Density Adjusted for 1 A.U. : 0071.4
URSI Series D Flux, Adj. x 0.9 : 0064.3
According to NASA, "early, well-documented records indicate that the
Sun went through a period of inactivity in the late 17th century" from
about 1645 to 1715, during the Maunder Minimum.
"This period of solar inactivity also corresponds to a climatic period
called the Little Ice Age when rivers that are normally ice-free froze
and snow fields remained year-round at lower altitudes." It was called
the Maunder Minimum, after Edward Maunder, a British accountant who
saw a sunspot "like a tack in the Sun" while he was walking home, and
subsequently made counting and analyzing sunspots, rather than money,
his life's work. There have been other Minimums. The Dalton Minimum of
1800 to 1810 was that period when Napoleon had his unfortunate
encounter with the Russian winter.
If the Sun's magnetic activity does not increase, and it goes dim for
an extended period, it will get quite chilly. In the meantime the
Canada Space Agency, the Royal Observatory Greenwich and the US Air
Force Solar Optical Observing Network are all keeping an eye on the
Sun.
Posted by Cat on January 31, 2008 01:06 AM
Extrapolating an "ice age" from a somewhat prolonged interim between
successive solar cycles is like calculating how many years it will
take for bacteria which double ever 20 minutes to outweigh the earth.
Note that the "Little Ice Age" required a 70-year hiatus in solar
activity. It will take more than a few weeks to start another ice
age.
Beware of extrapolations. People might mistake you for an engineer,
or worse.
Tom Davidson
Richmond, VA
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| User: "Puppet_Sock" |
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| Title: Re: Sun's low magnetic activity may portend an ice age |
04 Feb 2008 04:03:53 PM |
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On Feb 1, 1:00=A0am, wrote:
Sun's low magnetic activity may portend an ice age
[snips]
Well, good. I can get some use out of the damn snowshoes
that have been propped up in my living room for two years.
Socks
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