| Topic: |
Politics > Politics-USA |
| User: |
"Captain Compassion" |
| Date: |
13 Sep 2006 07:59:36 PM |
| Object: |
Alarm on global warming just a load of hot air |
Alarm on global warming just a load of hot air
Email Print Normal font Large font Alan Moran
September 8, 2006
http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2006/09/07/1157222264014.html?page=fullpage
ALARMIST stories about greenhouse gases causing catastrophic warming
continue to be aired in the media.
Notwithstanding the lack of evidence, global warming is even being
blamed for hurricanes and an apocryphal disappearance of polar bears.
Yet, the only solid measure of the warming, the NASA satellite data,
shows that over the 27 years that data has been available, warming has
been at a negligible rate of 0.13 degrees Celsius per decade. This
level is engulfed by the statistical variation for reliability.
Although there is an increasing level of carbon dioxide in the
atmosphere, carbon dioxide is not a pollutant nor does it pose health
risks. Its effects, other things being equal, are to raise
temperatures, but by how much is highly contentious.
Also contentious is the effect of the higher temperatures that some
people predict. Some argue it will mean an erosion of the ice caps.
Others point out that higher temperatures mean increased precipitation
and the ice caps should thicken.
Similar arguments rage around climate changes in Australia and other
regions.
At issue beyond the scientific debate is what to do about it and does
it really matter.
The much-violated obligations that nations agreed to at Kyoto in 1990
have proven difficult to meet. Some, like Australia, have changed the
basis of measurement and claimed victory.
That aside, if all developed countries were to meet their obligations
by the target year of 2012, the effect would be negligible. The
outcome would, on the basis of the climate models, retard the forecast
rise in temperature by just six years.
Over recent years, we also have seen the economic rise of
non-participants, India and China in particular, which are determined
to do nothing about their carbon dioxide emissions.
The rise of these colossuses places the stabilisation of emission
levels as an ever-receding mirage. They make any reductions from a
Kyoto Mark II even more unlikely to be achieved than those that are
falling short of commitments in the original agreement.
For Australia to get in front and lead on programs of emission
reduction is futile and extravagant. Our economy depends on low-cost
energy. The cost of saddling ourselves with another tax impost
undermines our future prosperity.
Moreover, the effect of reducing a tonne of carbon dioxide in
Australia will result in increased emissions elsewhere. Aluminium will
continue to be smelted whether in the Persian Gulf, China or
Australia.
Indeed, as the Australian power industry is relatively efficient,
displacing a tonne of carbon dioxide is likely to result in more than
a tonne elsewhere.
The arguments against imposing costs in Australia are all the more
persuasive in their application to state schemes. The Bracks
Government is proposing a tax on emissions, the Victorian Renewable
Emissions Target, designed to foster windmills that are twice the cost
of conventional energy. NSW already has such a scheme.
These measures mean that energy-intensive industries and electricity
generation will migrate elsewhere.
No politician in the Queensland election campaign is suggesting
saddling local industry with the sort of imposts that the southern
states have or are contemplating.
Victoria's scheme is designed to take out 4.9 million tonnes of carbon
dioxide a year, at a cost to the Victorian economy of $146 million a
year.
We could achieve the same curtailment of emissions by reducing air
travel. Every return air trip to Europe costs 5.2 tonnes of carbon
dioxide per person, enough to heat five houses for a year. Each
long-haul jumbo return trip from Australia produces, on average, about
1700 tonnes of carbon dioxide. There are about 3000 such flights each
month. If 8 per cent of long-haul international flights were
cancelled, we would achieve the same reduction in carbon dioxide.
Any number of permutations would achieve the sort of carbon dioxide
reductions the VRET scheme will buy if the goal were considered
worthwhile.
But few would bail out the ALP-supporting union super funds that have
invested heavily in wind farms. Better to soak the public for money
that contributes to the re-election of the Labor Government, eh, Mr
Bracks?
--
"Science is the record of dead religions." -- Oscar Wilde
"There are no absolute certainties in this universe. A man must try to
whip order into a yelping pack of probabilities, and uniform success is
impossible." -- Jack Vance
"Civilization is the interval between Ice Ages." -- Will Durant.
"War is God's way of teaching Americans geography" -- Ambrose Bierce
"Progress is the increasing control of the environment by life.
--Will Durant
Joseph R. Darancette
daranc@NOSPAMverizon.net
.
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