Analyst counters Bush on Al Qaeda
Boston Globe
By Bryan Bender
July 26, 2007
WASHINGTON -- A day after President Bush sought to present evidence showing
that Iraq is now the main battlefront against Al Qaeda, the chief US
intelligence analyst for international terrorism told Congress that the
network's growing ranks in Pakistan and Afghanistan pose a more immediate
threat to the United States.
In rare testimony before two House committees, Edward Gistaro, the national
intelligence officer for transnational threats, said that Al Qaeda
terrorists operating in South Asia are better equipped to attack the United
States than the network's followers in Iraq are.
Asked which arm of Al Qaeda concerned him the most, Gistaro told a joint
session of the House armed services and intelligence panels that it was
South Asia.
"The primary concern is in Al Qaeda in South Asia organizing its own plots
against the United States," he said. Al Qaeda planned the Sept. 11, 2001,
attacks from its bases in Afghanistan.
The top leaders of the terrorist network, Gistaro added, are "able to
exploit the comfort zone in the tribal areas" of Pakistan and Afghanistan
and are "bringing people in to train for Western operations."
"We see increased efforts on the part of Al Qaeda to try and find, train,
and deploy people who could get into this country," he testified.
Meanwhile, a top US general in Afghanistan told Pentagon reporters in a
video teleconference that the number of Al Qaeda foot soldiers traveling to
South Asia has increased up to 60 percent over the past year.
"It's increased probably 50 to 60 percent over what it was last year . . .
and they come from multiple areas in the Middle East," said Army Major
General David Rodriguez, commander of the 82d Airborne Division.
The comments provided more fuel for Democratic leaders in Congress who
believe the White House is exaggerating the Al Qaeda threat in Iraq to
justify prolonging the US military presence indefinitely.
"I am deeply concerned that we have not paid sufficient attention to the
places that [today's] threat is most real," remarked Representative Ike
Skelton of Missouri, chairman of the Armed Services Committee. "Chasing
windmills has kept our eye off of the more important struggle, the one with
roots in Afghanistan."
Senator John F. Kerry, who chaired a similar hearing yesterday of the Senate
Foreign Relations Committee, called for a renewed focus on Al Qaeda by
working more closely with the Pakistani government and allocating more
resources to track down the central leadership of the terrorist network.
"Osama bin Laden and top Al Qaeda leaders are likely still hiding out
somewhere in the region, and none of us here need to be reminded of the
nightmare scenario of Pakistan's nuclear arsenal falling into the wrong
hands," Kerry said.
The United States has about 160,000 troops in Iraq and about 20,000 in
Afghanistan.
Gistaro, the intelligence analyst, was among the main authors of a National
Intelligence Estimate released this month that concluded that the network
headed by bin Laden presents a "heightened threat" of attack against the
United States.
The assessment, a small portion of which was disclosed publicly, said that
the organization has been able to retain many of its top lieutenants,
recruit new operatives, and establish new training camps in Pakistan's
lawless northwestern frontier.
But in recent days the White House has highlighted one particular line in
the declassified version of the report that portrays the group known as Al
Qaeda in Iraq as the "most visible and capable affiliate [of Al Qaeda] and
the only one known to have expressed a desire to attack the [US] homeland."
On Tuesday, in a speech about Iraq to a military audience at Charleston Air
Force Base in South Carolina, Bush offered a detailed argument why Al Qaeda
in Iraq is central to the battle against the terrorist network responsible
for the Sept. 11 attacks.
Bush named a number of Al Qaeda leaders from across the Middle East who are
organizing attacks in Iraq to make the case that much of the violence there
is a direct result of the bin Laden network.
"Here's the bottom line," Bush said in a speech that mentioned Al Qaeda 25
times. "Al Qaeda in Iraq is run by foreign leaders loyal to Osama bin Laden.
Like bin Laden, they are cold-blooded killers who murder the innocent to
achieve Al Qaeda's political objectives. Yet despite all the evidence, some
will tell you that Al Qaeda in Iraq is really not Al Qaeda and not really a
threat to America."
Bush warned that unless the United States sustains its current military
strategy, Iraq could become a base to launch attacks against the United
States -- as Afghanistan was before US forces toppled the Taliban in 2001.
"We've already seen how Al Qaeda used a failed state thousands of miles from
our shores to bring death and destruction to the streets of our cities, and
we must not allow them to do so again," Bush said.
The White House reiterated its stance yesterday that Iraq is "the central
front" in the war on terrorism.
"Al Qaeda leaders describe it the same way, which is why they are trying to
use murder and mayhem to provoke sectarian violence, foment chaos, and
create a safe haven for terror," White House press secretary Tony Snow said.
But Gistaro testified that Al Qaeda followers in Iraq -- who number in the
"several thousands" -- have little support among the local population.
Gistaro noted that the United States has begun arming Sunni Muslim tribes in
western Iraq to fight Al Qaeda sympathizers who have entered the country to
sow civil war and kill US troops.
Abraham Wagner, a senior researcher at the Center for Advanced Studies on
Terrorism at Columbia University, called Bush's speech about the Al Qaeda
threat in Iraq a "spin job."
"In the Cold War it was called 'threat lumping,' " Wagner said. "It is
creating a threat to justify what you are doing. Al Qaeda in Iraq never
existed prior to the US activity in Iraq and I think it is still a small
operation."
"It is unfortunate," he added, that "the administration, in their last gasp
to justify what they are doing, are inventing threats and misrepresenting
what they are getting from the intelligence community."
Bryan Bender can be reached at bender@globe.com.
© Copyright 2007 Globe Newspaper Company.
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