Bird flu not only pandemic risk, U.S. experts warn
Tue May 8, 2007 7:03PM EDT
By Julie Steenhuysen
CHICAGO (Reuters) - While many health experts see the H5N1 bird flu
virus as a likely cause for an influenza pandemic, another influenza
virus could just as likely mutate into a global killer, U.S. health
experts said on Tuesday.
"You can not accurately predict if and when a given virus will become
a pandemic virus," said Anthony Fauci, head of the U.S. National
Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.
Fauci said too little is known about exactly how and when a virus will
mutate. Focusing too much on one suspect -- even a very likely suspect
such as H5N1 -- may be a mistake.
"We should not ... forget the fact that historically pandemics have
evolved. We should be building up the knowledge base and expanding the
capabilities of making vaccines," he said in a telephone interview.
Fauci and colleagues, writing in a commentary in the Journal of the
American Medical Association, said pandemic prevention strategies must
based on "expecting the unexpected and being capable of reacting
accordingly."
They recommend companies expand their research on vaccine design,
develop new classes of drugs and improve tests to diagnose influenza.
The H5N1 avian influenza virus that is now killing birds in countries
from Indonesia to Nigeria rarely infects people.
But many believe if it mutates in just the wrong way, it could start
passing easily from one person to another and would sweep the globe,
killing millions.
Companies and governments are working feverishly to prepare for a
pandemic by developing vaccines and stockpiling drugs to treat
viruses.
But focusing too much on just one viral suspect may leave the world
vulnerable in the event that another virus causes a deadly flu
pandemic.
"The ability of these types of viruses to ultimately spread from birds
to humans is a very complex process involving multiple genetic
evolutions. It's a complicated issue that is very difficult to
predict," Fauci said.
--
There may come a time when the CO2 police will wander the earth telling
the poor and the dispossed how many dung chips they can put on their
cook fires. -- Captain Compassion.
Wherever I go it will be well with me, for it was well with me here, not
on account of the place, but of my judgments which I shall carry away
with me, for no one can deprive me of these; on the contrary, they alone
are my property, and cannot be taken away, and to possess them suffices
me wherever I am or whatever I do. -- EPICTETUS
"Civilization is the interval between Ice Ages." -- Will Durant.
"Progress is the increasing control of the environment by life.
--Will Durant
Joseph R. Darancette
daranc@NOSPAMcharter.net
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