Politics > Politics-USA > Bush lies should get him tossed out, but.....................................................
| Topic: |
Politics > Politics-USA |
| User: |
"Harry Hope" |
| Date: |
04 Jun 2005 12:35:21 PM |
| Object: |
Bush lies should get him tossed out, but..................................................... |
Bush lies should get him tossed out
By Dave Zweifel
June 3, 2005
You may not have heard about the so-called "Downing Street memo"
because the U.S. media haven't done much coverage of it.
The wire services with which The Capital Times contracts - the
Washington Post/Los Angeles Times, Scripps Howard and the Associated
Press - have moved few stories about the memo, which surfaced in the
Sunday Times of London back on May 1.
Consequently, we haven't had much about it either.
While the U.S. media have finally gotten around to lamenting the faked
intelligence that the Bush people foisted on an unsuspecting public to
grease the skids to go to war - something we wrote about nearly two
years ago - the Downing Street memo is now flying under the radar
screen.
Some contend that's because the American press is too chicken-livered
to really take on the president, especially in view of the fact that
some are claiming the memo is the smoking gun that ought to lead to
George Bush's impeachment.
The memo, which was printed in full in the Sunday Times, was written
by British national security aide Matthew Bycroft based on notes that
he took during a July 2002 meeting - eight months before Bush started
the war.
The meeting included Prime Minister Tony Blair, a group of his
advisers and Richard Dearlove, the head of Britain's intelligence
service who had only a few days before met with Bush administration
officials.
The memo quoted Dearlove saying that the Bush people wanted to remove
Saddam militarily and that the intelligence and facts were being
"fixed" to justify that.
"It seemed clear that Bush had made up his mind to take military
action, even if the timing was not yet decided. But the case was thin,
Saddam was not threatening his neighbors, and his WMD capability was
less than that of Libya, North Korea and Iran," the memo said.
If nothing else, the memo lends credence to those who have contended
all along that the Bush administration was never serious about trying
to avert this war, that its mind was made up, and all that had to be
done was convince the American people that it was justified.
That's when they cooked up the phony stories about Saddam's nuclear
and biological weapons capabilities.
Democrats in Congress have been trying to get the Republican majority
to call for congressional hearings on the memo.
They have so far been stonewalled with the White House contending that
"it is just flat out wrong."
It is clear that an investigation ought to be conducted to determine
just how accurate this memo is.
Frankly, if Bill Clinton needed to be impeached for lying about sex
with an intern, George Bush ought to be tossed out of office for
purposely lying to the American people.
___________________________________________________
Locked up would be more appropriate.
Harry
.
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| User: "ADOLF LIBERAL" |
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| Title: Re: Bush lies should get him tossed out, but..................................................... |
04 Jun 2005 05:36:30 PM |
|
|
The Biography of a Bad Statistic
http://www.factcheck.org/printerfriendly330.html
Abortions rising under Bush? Not true.
http://www.factcheck.org/printerfriendly330.html
How that false claim came to be -and lives on.
May 25, 2005
Modified:May 26, 2005
Politicians from Hillary Clinton and John Kerry to Howard Dean
have recently contended that abortions have increased since
George W. Bush took office in 2001.
http://www.factcheck.org/printerfriendly330.html
This claim is false. This claim is false. This claim is false.
http://www.factcheck.org/printerfriendly330.html
It's based on an an opinion piece that used data from only 16 states.
A study by the Alan Guttmacher Institute of 43 states found that
abortions have actually decreased.
Update, May 26: The author of the original claim now concedes
that the Guttmacher study is "significantly better" than his own.
Analysis:
http://www.factcheck.org/printerfriendly330.html
A number of politicians and organizations have been circulating an
interesting and surprising idea: that abortions have gone up under
George W. Bush’s watch. The claim is repeated by supporters of
abortion rights as evidence that Bush's anti-abortion policies have
backfired, or at least been ineffective.
But the claim is untrue. But the claim is untrue.
http://www.factcheck.org/printerfriendly330.html
In fact, according to the respected Alan Guttmacher Institute, a
20-year decline in abortion rates continued after Bush took office,
as shown in this graph
SEE IMAGE @
http://factcheck.asc.upenn.edu/imagefiles/Abortion%20Rate.jpg
or http://www.factcheck.org/printerfriendly330.html
IMAGE Source: Alan Guttmacher Institute,
"Trends in Abortion in the United States "
Here's the story of how a false idea took hold.
The Birth of a Bad Statistic
http://www.factcheck.org/printerfriendly330.html
The claim that abortions are rising again can be traced back to an
opinion piece by Glen Harold Stassen, an ethics professor at Fuller
Theological Seminary. His article originally appeared in a web and
e-mail publication of Sojourners, a Christian magazine, in October
2004. Several other outlets, including the Houston Chronicle, also
ran a similar piece co-authored by Stassen and journalist Gary Krane.
The articles generated a good deal of discussion on a number of both
liberal and conservative blogs.
Describing himself as “consistently pro-life,” Stassen reported that
he “analyzed the data on abortion during the Bush presidency” and
reached some “disturbing” conclusions. "Under President Bush, the
decade-long trend of declining abortion rates appears to have
reversed," he said. "Given the trends of the 1990s, 52,000 more
abortions occurred in the United States in 2002 than would have been
expected before this change of direction."
Stassen's broad conclusion wasn't justified by the sketchy information
he cited, however. Furthermore, a primary organization he cited
specifically as a source for historical data now contradicts him,
saying abortions have continued to decline since Bush took office.
More about that later.
Hillary Clinton Uses It
http://www.factcheck.org/printerfriendly330.html
Stassen offered his article as evidence that Bush's economic policies
were driving pregnant women to abortion. And although he opposes
abortion, his claim was soon picked up and repeated uncritically by
the other side – supporters of abortion rights. In a speech to
family-planning providers in New York on January 24, 2005 , Sen.
Hillary Clinton recounted decreases in the abortion rate that occurred
in her husband's administration, then lamented that the situation had
changed. She repeated exactly some of the figures that Stassen had
given in his Houston Chronicle article.
Clinton : But unfortunately, in the last few years,
while we are engaged in an ideological debate instead
of one that uses facts and evidence and common sense,
the rate of abortion is on the rise in some states .
In the three years since President Bush took office,
8 states saw an increase in abortion rates
(14.6% average increase), and four saw a decrease
(4.3% average), so we have a lot of work still ahead
of us. http://www.factcheck.org/printerfriendly330.html
Clinton was careful not to state flatly that abortions were increasing
nationally . She spoke only of "some states" in which the rate had
increased. But she invited her listeners to conclude that the national
trend to fewer abortions had reversed itself since Bush took office.
And in fact a few days later, in an interview on NBC’s Meet the Press
on January 30, 2005 , Sen. John Kerry claimed that abortions were up,
period:
Kerry: And do you know that in fact abortion has gone
up in these last few years with the draconian policies
that Republicans have….
http://www.factcheck.org/printerfriendly330.html
A Kerry spokesman confirmed at the time to FactCheck.org that Kerry
was relying on the Stassen article for his information.
Finally, as recently as May 24, 2005 , Democratic National Committee
chairman Howard Dean also asserted on NBC News' Meet the Press:
Dean:You know that abortions have gone up 25
percent since George Bush was President ?
http://www.factcheck.org/printerfriendly330.html
Dean's "statistic" went unchallenged by moderator Tim Russert, so
millions of viewers probably got the impression that Dean's very
specific 25 percent figure was correct. But Dean was wrong -- and
by a wide margin.
We asked the Democratic National Committee repeatedly where
Dean got his 25 percent figure, but we got no response. Even if
Stassen's estimate of 52,000 additional abortions were correct, that
would figure to an increase of less than 4 percent. And in any case
the rate is going down, not up, according to the most authoritative
figures available.
Cherrypicking Data
http://www.factcheck.org/printerfriendly330.html
A close reading of Stassen's article makes clear that he didn't even
pretend to have comprehensive national data on abortion rates. He said
he looked at data from 16 states only -- and didn't even name most of
them.
Stassen said that in the four states that had already posted
statistics for three full years of Bush’s first term, he found that
abortion was up. Twelve more states had posted statistics for two
years of Bush's term – 2001 and 2002 – and here the picture was mixed.
According to Stassen, "Eight states saw an increase in abortion rates
(14.6 percent average increase), and five saw a decrease (4.3 percent
average)." A version of the piece in the Houston Chronicle reported
instead that four saw a decrease with a 4.3 percent average.
So Stassen was projecting findings onto the entire country from 12
states that he said had showed an increase and 5 (or maybe 4) that he
said had shown a decrease. That leaves a total of 34 other states for
which Stassen had no data whatsoever.
Furthermore, Stassen is contradicted by one of the very organizations
whose data he cites. The only primary source of data that Stassen
cites specifically in the article is the Alan Guttmacher Institute, a
nonprofit organization that conducts a periodic survey of all known
abortion providers, which numbered nearly 2,000 at last count.
Guttmacher's statistics are widely used and respected by all sides in
the abortion debate. It is the only organization to compile and
publish national abortion-rate data other than the federal Center for
Disease Control. CDC's official statistics, however, run only through
2001, so they shed no light on what has happened since Bush took
office.
And Guttmacher – as we shall see – now says abortion rates have
decreased since Bush took office. And that's based on data from 43
states, not just 16.
De-bunking the statistic
http://www.factcheck.org/printerfriendly330.html
Stassen’s numbers, and the widespread acceptance they seemed to be
getting, prompted the Guttmacher Institute to conduct a special
analysis to update its comprehensive census of abortion providers for
the year 2000. The increases that Stassen reported “would be a
significant change in a long-standing trend in the US ,” Leila Darabi
of the institute explained to Factcheck.
Besides the fact that Stassen claimed to have data only from 16
states, the Guttmacher Institute said it is likely that many of the
states Stassen picked have higher abortion rates historically, have a
higher concentration of population subgroups that tend to have more
abortions, and see abortion rates rise more quickly when they do go
up. Stassen himself named only Kentucky, Michigan, Pennsylvania and
Colorado among the 16 states he says he studied, but his co-author on
the Houston Chronicle article listed each state in a separate article
posted on the Internet.
The Guttmacher Institute found that two of the states Stassen used had
unreliable reporting systems. In Colorado , for instance, where
Stassen claimed that rates “skyrocketed 111 percent,” the reporting
procedure had been recently changed in order to compensate for
historic underreporting. Guttmacher also found Arizona had an
inconsistent reporting system.
The Facts
http://www.factcheck.org/printerfriendly330.html
The Guttmacher Institute announced its findings May 19. Guttmacher
analyzed available government data "as an interim measure until
another provider census can be conducted” according to a news release.
The interim study analyzed data from 43 states determined to have
reliable state reporting systems.
What it found was that the number of abortions decreased nationwide –
by 0.8% in 2001 and by another 0.8% in 2002. The abortion rate , which
is the number of women having abortions relative to the total
population, also decreased 1% in 2001 and 0.9% in 2002. That's not as
rapid a decrease as had been seen in earlier years, but it is a
decrease nonetheless.
We give much weight to Guttmacher's analysis. Their figures are widely
used and accepted by both anti-abortion groups and abortion-rights
advocates. Their surveys of abortion providers go back to 1973, and
Stassen cites them himself as the source for the number of abortions
in 2000.
Guttmacher has little motive to make Bush and his anti-abortion
policies look good. The institute was founded in 1968 in honor of a
former president of the Planned Parenthood Federation of America, and
describes its mission as being" to protect the reproductive choice of
all women and men in the United States and throughout the world.” Had
Stassen’s numbers proven accurate, the Institute “would have reported
and widely publicized a rise in abortion rates,” said Darabi. But
facts are facts.
Update, May 26:
Even Stassen now concedes that he can't substantiate his original
claim. In a memo dated May 25, which he sent to FactCheck.org
just as we were posting our article, he praises the Guttmacher
study and says it is "significantly better" than his own earlier
effort:
Stassen, May 25: I based my estimates in October on the sixteen states
whose data I could find then. Now, seven months later, and with their
extensive data-gathering ability, AGI (Alan Guttmacher Institute)
bases their results on 44 states. They say their results are only
estimates, projections, but I believe their results are significantly
better than what I could have obtained seven months ago. I affirm
their methods and their study, and am grateful for their effort.
Nevertheless, Stassen still argues that the small rate of decline that
Guttmacher reports still constitutes a "stall" in what had earlier
been a more rapid decline. He also continues to criticize the Bush
administration for economic policies that he says bring hardship on
low-income women. "It is clear to me that undermining the financial
support for mothers, undermining the availability of medical
insurance, and increasing the jobless rate for prospective mates so
that they are less likely to marry, has a bad influence on abortion
rates and infant mortality rates."
For the full text of Stassen's response see "supporting documents" at
right.
Correction: Our original article stated that Sen. Clinton had omitted
to mention states in which abortions had decreased. In fact, as was
obvious from the full quote we gave, she did state that abortions had
decreased in four states. This updated article corrects our error.
Sources:
Glen Harold Stassen, "Pro-Life? Look at the fruits," Sojomail, 13
October 2004.
Glen Harold Stassen and Gary Krane, "Why Abortion Rate Is Up In Bush
Years," Houston Chronicle, 17 October 2004
Sen. Hillary Clinton, "Remarks by Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton to
the NYS Family Planning Providers," 24 January 2005, website.
"Meet the Press," Transcript, National Broadcasting Company, 30
January 2005.
"Meet the Press," Transcript, National Broadcasting Company, 22 May
2005.
"Decades-Long Decline in Number and Rate of U.S. Abortions Continues,
New Analysis Shows," Press Release, The Alan Guttmacher Institute, 19
May 2005.
# Link URL
1. Trends in Abortion in the United States
http://www.agi-usa.org/presentations/trends.pdf
2. Pro-Life? Look at the fruits
http://64.233.161.104/search?q=cache:NKQ2Mhk_8bQJ:www.sojo.net/index.cfm%3Faction%3Dsojomail.display%26issue%3D041013+%22pro-life%3F+look+at+the+fruits%22&hl=en
3. Why Abortion Rate Is Up In Bush Years
http://chron.com/cs/CDA/ssistory.mpl/editorial/outlook/2851283
4. website http://clinton.senate.gov/~clinton/speeches/2005125A05.html
5. Transcript http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/7924139/
6. Decades-Long Decline in Number and Rate of U.S. Abortions
Continues, New Analysis Shows
http://www.agi-usa.org/media/nr/2005/05/19/index.html
.
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| User: "The Pretzel" |
|
| Title: Re: Bush lies should get him tossed out, but..................................................... |
05 Jun 2005 04:08:10 AM |
|
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Bush lies should get him tossed out
By Dave Zweifel
June 3, 2005
You may not have heard about the so-called "Downing Street memo"
because the U.S. media haven't done much coverage of it.
The wire services with which The Capital Times contracts - the
Washington Post/Los Angeles Times, Scripps Howard and the Associated
Press - have moved few stories about the memo, which surfaced in the
Sunday Times of London back on May 1.
Consequently, we haven't had much about it either.
While the U.S. media have finally gotten around to lamenting the faked
intelligence that the Bush people foisted on an unsuspecting public to
grease the skids to go to war - something we wrote about nearly two
years ago - the Downing Street memo is now flying under the radar
screen.
Some contend that's because the American press is too chicken-livered
to really take on the president, especially in view of the fact that
some are claiming the memo is the smoking gun that ought to lead to
George Bush's impeachment.
The memo, which was printed in full in the Sunday Times, was written
by British national security aide Matthew Bycroft based on notes that
he took during a July 2002 meeting - eight months before Bush started
the war.
The meeting included Prime Minister Tony Blair, a group of his
advisers and Richard Dearlove, the head of Britain's intelligence
service who had only a few days before met with Bush administration
officials.
The memo quoted Dearlove saying that the Bush people wanted to remove
Saddam militarily and that the intelligence and facts were being
"fixed" to justify that.
"It seemed clear that Bush had made up his mind to take military
action, even if the timing was not yet decided. But the case was thin,
Saddam was not threatening his neighbors, and his WMD capability was
less than that of Libya, North Korea and Iran," the memo said.
If nothing else, the memo lends credence to those who have contended
all along that the Bush administration was never serious about trying
to avert this war, that its mind was made up, and all that had to be
done was convince the American people that it was justified.
That's when they cooked up the phony stories about Saddam's nuclear
and biological weapons capabilities.
Democrats in Congress have been trying to get the Republican majority
to call for congressional hearings on the memo.
They have so far been stonewalled with the White House contending that
"it is just flat out wrong."
It is clear that an investigation ought to be conducted to determine
just how accurate this memo is.
Frankly, if Bill Clinton needed to be impeached for lying about sex
with an intern, George Bush ought to be tossed out of office for
purposely lying to the American people.
___________________________________________________
Locked up would be more appropriate.
Harry
.
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| User: "tenjets" |
|
| Title: Re: Bush lies should get him tossed out, but..................................................... |
04 Jun 2005 08:41:13 PM |
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factcheck.org is a great resource...although, you turn it into political
hackery when you add your own emphasis ("But the claim is untrue. But the
claim is untrue.") . Misleading! Also, it's interesting that a conservative
would cite a resource that seems to be in favor of reproductive rights: "The
(Alan Guttmacher) Institute's mission is to protect the reproductive choices
of all women and men in the United States and throughout the world. It is to
support their ability to obtain the information and services needed to
achieve their full human rights, safeguard their health and exercise their
individual responsibilities in regard to sexual behavior and relationships,
reproduction and family formation."
You should go back to factcheck.org and do a search on "swift boats"
"ADOLF LIBERAL" <Libs-R-Hatched-not-born@the.founders.were.christians.org>
wrote in message news:47b4a15em7qfq8sfcm5jke06gtq0ki2dlb@4ax.com...
The Biography of a Bad Statistic
http://www.factcheck.org/printerfriendly330.html
Abortions rising under Bush? Not true.
http://www.factcheck.org/printerfriendly330.html
How that false claim came to be -and lives on.
May 25, 2005
Modified:May 26, 2005
Politicians from Hillary Clinton and John Kerry to Howard Dean
have recently contended that abortions have increased since
George W. Bush took office in 2001.
http://www.factcheck.org/printerfriendly330.html
This claim is false. This claim is false. This claim is false.
http://www.factcheck.org/printerfriendly330.html
It's based on an an opinion piece that used data from only 16 states.
A study by the Alan Guttmacher Institute of 43 states found that
abortions have actually decreased.
Update, May 26: The author of the original claim now concedes
that the Guttmacher study is "significantly better" than his own.
Analysis:
http://www.factcheck.org/printerfriendly330.html
A number of politicians and organizations have been circulating an
interesting and surprising idea: that abortions have gone up under
George W. Bush's watch. The claim is repeated by supporters of
abortion rights as evidence that Bush's anti-abortion policies have
backfired, or at least been ineffective.
But the claim is untrue. But the claim is untrue.
http://www.factcheck.org/printerfriendly330.html
In fact, according to the respected Alan Guttmacher Institute, a
20-year decline in abortion rates continued after Bush took office,
as shown in this graph
SEE IMAGE @
http://factcheck.asc.upenn.edu/imagefiles/Abortion%20Rate.jpg
or http://www.factcheck.org/printerfriendly330.html
IMAGE Source: Alan Guttmacher Institute,
"Trends in Abortion in the United States "
Here's the story of how a false idea took hold.
The Birth of a Bad Statistic
http://www.factcheck.org/printerfriendly330.html
The claim that abortions are rising again can be traced back to an
opinion piece by Glen Harold Stassen, an ethics professor at Fuller
Theological Seminary. His article originally appeared in a web and
e-mail publication of Sojourners, a Christian magazine, in October
2004. Several other outlets, including the Houston Chronicle, also
ran a similar piece co-authored by Stassen and journalist Gary Krane.
The articles generated a good deal of discussion on a number of both
liberal and conservative blogs.
Describing himself as "consistently pro-life," Stassen reported that
he "analyzed the data on abortion during the Bush presidency" and
reached some "disturbing" conclusions. "Under President Bush, the
decade-long trend of declining abortion rates appears to have
reversed," he said. "Given the trends of the 1990s, 52,000 more
abortions occurred in the United States in 2002 than would have been
expected before this change of direction."
Stassen's broad conclusion wasn't justified by the sketchy information
he cited, however. Furthermore, a primary organization he cited
specifically as a source for historical data now contradicts him,
saying abortions have continued to decline since Bush took office.
More about that later.
Hillary Clinton Uses It
http://www.factcheck.org/printerfriendly330.html
Stassen offered his article as evidence that Bush's economic policies
were driving pregnant women to abortion. And although he opposes
abortion, his claim was soon picked up and repeated uncritically by
the other side - supporters of abortion rights. In a speech to
family-planning providers in New York on January 24, 2005 , Sen.
Hillary Clinton recounted decreases in the abortion rate that occurred
in her husband's administration, then lamented that the situation had
changed. She repeated exactly some of the figures that Stassen had
given in his Houston Chronicle article.
Clinton : But unfortunately, in the last few years,
while we are engaged in an ideological debate instead
of one that uses facts and evidence and common sense,
the rate of abortion is on the rise in some states .
In the three years since President Bush took office,
8 states saw an increase in abortion rates
(14.6% average increase), and four saw a decrease
(4.3% average), so we have a lot of work still ahead
of us. http://www.factcheck.org/printerfriendly330.html
Clinton was careful not to state flatly that abortions were increasing
nationally . She spoke only of "some states" in which the rate had
increased. But she invited her listeners to conclude that the national
trend to fewer abortions had reversed itself since Bush took office.
And in fact a few days later, in an interview on NBC's Meet the Press
on January 30, 2005 , Sen. John Kerry claimed that abortions were up,
period:
Kerry: And do you know that in fact abortion has gone
up in these last few years with the draconian policies
that Republicans have..
http://www.factcheck.org/printerfriendly330.html
A Kerry spokesman confirmed at the time to FactCheck.org that Kerry
was relying on the Stassen article for his information.
Finally, as recently as May 24, 2005 , Democratic National Committee
chairman Howard Dean also asserted on NBC News' Meet the Press:
Dean:You know that abortions have gone up 25
percent since George Bush was President ?
http://www.factcheck.org/printerfriendly330.html
Dean's "statistic" went unchallenged by moderator Tim Russert, so
millions of viewers probably got the impression that Dean's very
specific 25 percent figure was correct. But Dean was wrong -- and
by a wide margin.
We asked the Democratic National Committee repeatedly where
Dean got his 25 percent figure, but we got no response. Even if
Stassen's estimate of 52,000 additional abortions were correct, that
would figure to an increase of less than 4 percent. And in any case
the rate is going down, not up, according to the most authoritative
figures available.
Cherrypicking Data
http://www.factcheck.org/printerfriendly330.html
A close reading of Stassen's article makes clear that he didn't even
pretend to have comprehensive national data on abortion rates. He said
he looked at data from 16 states only -- and didn't even name most of
them.
Stassen said that in the four states that had already posted
statistics for three full years of Bush's first term, he found that
abortion was up. Twelve more states had posted statistics for two
years of Bush's term - 2001 and 2002 - and here the picture was mixed.
According to Stassen, "Eight states saw an increase in abortion rates
(14.6 percent average increase), and five saw a decrease (4.3 percent
average)." A version of the piece in the Houston Chronicle reported
instead that four saw a decrease with a 4.3 percent average.
So Stassen was projecting findings onto the entire country from 12
states that he said had showed an increase and 5 (or maybe 4) that he
said had shown a decrease. That leaves a total of 34 other states for
which Stassen had no data whatsoever.
Furthermore, Stassen is contradicted by one of the very organizations
whose data he cites. The only primary source of data that Stassen
cites specifically in the article is the Alan Guttmacher Institute, a
nonprofit organization that conducts a periodic survey of all known
abortion providers, which numbered nearly 2,000 at last count.
Guttmacher's statistics are widely used and respected by all sides in
the abortion debate. It is the only organization to compile and
publish national abortion-rate data other than the federal Center for
Disease Control. CDC's official statistics, however, run only through
2001, so they shed no light on what has happened since Bush took
office.
And Guttmacher - as we shall see - now says abortion rates have
decreased since Bush took office. And that's based on data from 43
states, not just 16.
De-bunking the statistic
http://www.factcheck.org/printerfriendly330.html
Stassen's numbers, and the widespread acceptance they seemed to be
getting, prompted the Guttmacher Institute to conduct a special
analysis to update its comprehensive census of abortion providers for
the year 2000. The increases that Stassen reported "would be a
significant change in a long-standing trend in the US ," Leila Darabi
of the institute explained to Factcheck.
Besides the fact that Stassen claimed to have data only from 16
states, the Guttmacher Institute said it is likely that many of the
states Stassen picked have higher abortion rates historically, have a
higher concentration of population subgroups that tend to have more
abortions, and see abortion rates rise more quickly when they do go
up. Stassen himself named only Kentucky, Michigan, Pennsylvania and
Colorado among the 16 states he says he studied, but his co-author on
the Houston Chronicle article listed each state in a separate article
posted on the Internet.
The Guttmacher Institute found that two of the states Stassen used had
unreliable reporting systems. In Colorado , for instance, where
Stassen claimed that rates "skyrocketed 111 percent," the reporting
procedure had been recently changed in order to compensate for
historic underreporting. Guttmacher also found Arizona had an
inconsistent reporting system.
The Facts
http://www.factcheck.org/printerfriendly330.html
The Guttmacher Institute announced its findings May 19. Guttmacher
analyzed available government data "as an interim measure until
another provider census can be conducted" according to a news release.
The interim study analyzed data from 43 states determined to have
reliable state reporting systems.
What it found was that the number of abortions decreased nationwide -
by 0.8% in 2001 and by another 0.8% in 2002. The abortion rate , which
is the number of women having abortions relative to the total
population, also decreased 1% in 2001 and 0.9% in 2002. That's not as
rapid a decrease as had been seen in earlier years, but it is a
decrease nonetheless.
We give much weight to Guttmacher's analysis. Their figures are widely
used and accepted by both anti-abortion groups and abortion-rights
advocates. Their surveys of abortion providers go back to 1973, and
Stassen cites them himself as the source for the number of abortions
in 2000.
Guttmacher has little motive to make Bush and his anti-abortion
policies look good. The institute was founded in 1968 in honor of a
former president of the Planned Parenthood Federation of America, and
describes its mission as being" to protect the reproductive choice of
all women and men in the United States and throughout the world." Had
Stassen's numbers proven accurate, the Institute "would have reported
and widely publicized a rise in abortion rates," said Darabi. But
facts are facts.
Update, May 26:
Even Stassen now concedes that he can't substantiate his original
claim. In a memo dated May 25, which he sent to FactCheck.org
just as we were posting our article, he praises the Guttmacher
study and says it is "significantly better" than his own earlier
effort:
Stassen, May 25: I based my estimates in October on the sixteen states
whose data I could find then. Now, seven months later, and with their
extensive data-gathering ability, AGI (Alan Guttmacher Institute)
bases their results on 44 states. They say their results are only
estimates, projections, but I believe their results are significantly
better than what I could have obtained seven months ago. I affirm
their methods and their study, and am grateful for their effort.
Nevertheless, Stassen still argues that the small rate of decline that
Guttmacher reports still constitutes a "stall" in what had earlier
been a more rapid decline. He also continues to criticize the Bush
administration for economic policies that he says bring hardship on
low-income women. "It is clear to me that undermining the financial
support for mothers, undermining the availability of medical
insurance, and increasing the jobless rate for prospective mates so
that they are less likely to marry, has a bad influence on abortion
rates and infant mortality rates."
For the full text of Stassen's response see "supporting documents" at
right.
Correction: Our original article stated that Sen. Clinton had omitted
to mention states in which abortions had decreased. In fact, as was
obvious from the full quote we gave, she did state that abortions had
decreased in four states. This updated article corrects our error.
Sources:
Glen Harold Stassen, "Pro-Life? Look at the fruits," Sojomail, 13
October 2004.
Glen Harold Stassen and Gary Krane, "Why Abortion Rate Is Up In Bush
Years," Houston Chronicle, 17 October 2004
Sen. Hillary Clinton, "Remarks by Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton to
the NYS Family Planning Providers," 24 January 2005, website.
"Meet the Press," Transcript, National Broadcasting Company, 30
January 2005.
"Meet the Press," Transcript, National Broadcasting Company, 22 May
2005.
"Decades-Long Decline in Number and Rate of U.S. Abortions Continues,
New Analysis Shows," Press Release, The Alan Guttmacher Institute, 19
May 2005.
# Link URL
1. Trends in Abortion in the United States
http://www.agi-usa.org/presentations/trends.pdf
2. Pro-Life? Look at the fruits
http://64.233.161.104/search?q=cache:NKQ2Mhk_8bQJ:www.sojo.net/index.cfm%3Faction%3Dsojomail.display%26issue%3D041013+%22pro-life%3F+look+at+the+fruits%22&hl=en
3. Why Abortion Rate Is Up In Bush Years
http://chron.com/cs/CDA/ssistory.mpl/editorial/outlook/2851283
4. website http://clinton.senate.gov/~clinton/speeches/2005125A05.html
5. Transcript http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/7924139/
6. Decades-Long Decline in Number and Rate of U.S. Abortions
Continues, New Analysis Shows
http://www.agi-usa.org/media/nr/2005/05/19/index.html
.
|
|
|
| User: "The Pretzel" |
|
| Title: Bush lies should get him tossed out, but..................................................... |
05 Jun 2005 04:07:33 AM |
|
|
"tenjets" <doh@nowhere.net> wrote in message
news:ZKsoe.2165$IE7.2129@newssvr21.news.prodigy.com...
factcheck.org is a great resource...although, you turn it into political
hackery when you add your own emphasis ("But the claim is untrue. But the
claim is untrue.") . Misleading! Also, it's interesting that a conservative
would cite a resource that seems to be in favor of reproductive rights: "The
(Alan Guttmacher) Institute's mission is to protect the reproductive choices
of all women and men in the United States and throughout the world. It is to
support their ability to obtain the information and services needed to
achieve their full human rights, safeguard their health and exercise their
individual responsibilities in regard to sexual behavior and relationships,
reproduction and family formation."
You should go back to factcheck.org and do a search on "swift boats"
ADOLF RIGHTARD is a moron. His post is longer then the original "article330" at
factcheck. Further, though it indeed is still going down, it's leveling off...
meaning the reduction is slowing and may reverse within the next 3 years. ...and
the data from the 16 states are not wrong but simply not as large a sample as
the overall sampling from the later.
See also how factcheck.org blows the cost of the Iraq war...
"ADOLF LIBERAL" <Libs-R-Hatched-not-born@the.founders.were.christians.org>
wrote in message news:47b4a15em7qfq8sfcm5jke06gtq0ki2dlb@4ax.com...
The Biography of a Bad Statistic
http://www.factcheck.org/printerfriendly330.html
Abortions rising under Bush? Not true.
http://www.factcheck.org/printerfriendly330.html
How that false claim came to be -and lives on.
May 25, 2005
Modified:May 26, 2005
Politicians from Hillary Clinton and John Kerry to Howard Dean
have recently contended that abortions have increased since
George W. Bush took office in 2001.
http://www.factcheck.org/printerfriendly330.html
This claim is false. This claim is false. This claim is false.
http://www.factcheck.org/printerfriendly330.html
It's based on an an opinion piece that used data from only 16 states.
A study by the Alan Guttmacher Institute of 43 states found that
abortions have actually decreased.
Update, May 26: The author of the original claim now concedes
that the Guttmacher study is "significantly better" than his own.
Analysis:
http://www.factcheck.org/printerfriendly330.html
A number of politicians and organizations have been circulating an
interesting and surprising idea: that abortions have gone up under
George W. Bush's watch. The claim is repeated by supporters of
abortion rights as evidence that Bush's anti-abortion policies have
backfired, or at least been ineffective.
But the claim is untrue. But the claim is untrue.
http://www.factcheck.org/printerfriendly330.html
In fact, according to the respected Alan Guttmacher Institute, a
20-year decline in abortion rates continued after Bush took office,
as shown in this graph
SEE IMAGE @
http://factcheck.asc.upenn.edu/imagefiles/Abortion%20Rate.jpg
or http://www.factcheck.org/printerfriendly330.html
IMAGE Source: Alan Guttmacher Institute,
"Trends in Abortion in the United States "
Here's the story of how a false idea took hold.
The Birth of a Bad Statistic
http://www.factcheck.org/printerfriendly330.html
The claim that abortions are rising again can be traced back to an
opinion piece by Glen Harold Stassen, an ethics professor at Fuller
Theological Seminary. His article originally appeared in a web and
e-mail publication of Sojourners, a Christian magazine, in October
2004. Several other outlets, including the Houston Chronicle, also
ran a similar piece co-authored by Stassen and journalist Gary Krane.
The articles generated a good deal of discussion on a number of both
liberal and conservative blogs.
Describing himself as "consistently pro-life," Stassen reported that
he "analyzed the data on abortion during the Bush presidency" and
reached some "disturbing" conclusions. "Under President Bush, the
decade-long trend of declining abortion rates appears to have
reversed," he said. "Given the trends of the 1990s, 52,000 more
abortions occurred in the United States in 2002 than would have been
expected before this change of direction."
Stassen's broad conclusion wasn't justified by the sketchy information
he cited, however. Furthermore, a primary organization he cited
specifically as a source for historical data now contradicts him,
saying abortions have continued to decline since Bush took office.
More about that later.
Hillary Clinton Uses It
http://www.factcheck.org/printerfriendly330.html
Stassen offered his article as evidence that Bush's economic policies
were driving pregnant women to abortion. And although he opposes
abortion, his claim was soon picked up and repeated uncritically by
the other side - supporters of abortion rights. In a speech to
family-planning providers in New York on January 24, 2005 , Sen.
Hillary Clinton recounted decreases in the abortion rate that occurred
in her husband's administration, then lamented that the situation had
changed. She repeated exactly some of the figures that Stassen had
given in his Houston Chronicle article.
Clinton : But unfortunately, in the last few years,
while we are engaged in an ideological debate instead
of one that uses facts and evidence and common sense,
the rate of abortion is on the rise in some states .
In the three years since President Bush took office,
8 states saw an increase in abortion rates
(14.6% average increase), and four saw a decrease
(4.3% average), so we have a lot of work still ahead
of us. http://www.factcheck.org/printerfriendly330.html
Clinton was careful not to state flatly that abortions were increasing
nationally . She spoke only of "some states" in which the rate had
increased. But she invited her listeners to conclude that the national
trend to fewer abortions had reversed itself since Bush took office.
And in fact a few days later, in an interview on NBC's Meet the Press
on January 30, 2005 , Sen. John Kerry claimed that abortions were up,
period:
Kerry: And do you know that in fact abortion has gone
up in these last few years with the draconian policies
that Republicans have..
http://www.factcheck.org/printerfriendly330.html
A Kerry spokesman confirmed at the time to FactCheck.org that Kerry
was relying on the Stassen article for his information.
Finally, as recently as May 24, 2005 , Democratic National Committee
chairman Howard Dean also asserted on NBC News' Meet the Press:
Dean:You know that abortions have gone up 25
percent since George Bush was President ?
http://www.factcheck.org/printerfriendly330.html
Dean's "statistic" went unchallenged by moderator Tim Russert, so
millions of viewers probably got the impression that Dean's very
specific 25 percent figure was correct. But Dean was wrong -- and
by a wide margin.
We asked the Democratic National Committee repeatedly where
Dean got his 25 percent figure, but we got no response. Even if
Stassen's estimate of 52,000 additional abortions were correct, that
would figure to an increase of less than 4 percent. And in any case
the rate is going down, not up, according to the most authoritative
figures available.
Cherrypicking Data
http://www.factcheck.org/printerfriendly330.html
A close reading of Stassen's article makes clear that he didn't even
pretend to have comprehensive national data on abortion rates. He said
he looked at data from 16 states only -- and didn't even name most of
them.
Stassen said that in the four states that had already posted
statistics for three full years of Bush's first term, he found that
abortion was up. Twelve more states had posted statistics for two
years of Bush's term - 2001 and 2002 - and here the picture was mixed.
According to Stassen, "Eight states saw an increase in abortion rates
(14.6 percent average increase), and five saw a decrease (4.3 percent
average)." A version of the piece in the Houston Chronicle reported
instead that four saw a decrease with a 4.3 percent average.
So Stassen was projecting findings onto the entire country from 12
states that he said had showed an increase and 5 (or maybe 4) that he
said had shown a decrease. That leaves a total of 34 other states for
which Stassen had no data whatsoever.
Furthermore, Stassen is contradicted by one of the very organizations
whose data he cites. The only primary source of data that Stassen
cites specifically in the article is the Alan Guttmacher Institute, a
nonprofit organization that conducts a periodic survey of all known
abortion providers, which numbered nearly 2,000 at last count.
Guttmacher's statistics are widely used and respected by all sides in
the abortion debate. It is the only organization to compile and
publish national abortion-rate data other than the federal Center for
Disease Control. CDC's official statistics, however, run only through
2001, so they shed no light on what has happened since Bush took
office.
And Guttmacher - as we shall see - now says abortion rates have
decreased since Bush took office. And that's based on data from 43
states, not just 16.
De-bunking the statistic
http://www.factcheck.org/printerfriendly330.html
Stassen's numbers, and the widespread acceptance they seemed to be
getting, prompted the Guttmacher Institute to conduct a special
analysis to update its comprehensive census of abortion providers for
the year 2000. The increases that Stassen reported "would be a
significant change in a long-standing trend in the US ," Leila Darabi
of the institute explained to Factcheck.
Besides the fact that Stassen claimed to have data only from 16
states, the Guttmacher Institute said it is likely that many of the
states Stassen picked have higher abortion rates historically, have a
higher concentration of population subgroups that tend to have more
abortions, and see abortion rates rise more quickly when they do go
up. Stassen himself named only Kentucky, Michigan, Pennsylvania and
Colorado among the 16 states he says he studied, but his co-author on
the Houston Chronicle article listed each state in a separate article
posted on the Internet.
The Guttmacher Institute found that two of the states Stassen used had
unreliable reporting systems. In Colorado , for instance, where
Stassen claimed that rates "skyrocketed 111 percent," the reporting
procedure had been recently changed in order to compensate for
historic underreporting. Guttmacher also found Arizona had an
inconsistent reporting system.
The Facts
http://www.factcheck.org/printerfriendly330.html
The Guttmacher Institute announced its findings May 19. Guttmacher
analyzed available government data "as an interim measure until
another provider census can be conducted" according to a news release.
The interim study analyzed data from 43 states determined to have
reliable state reporting systems.
What it found was that the number of abortions decreased nationwide -
by 0.8% in 2001 and by another 0.8% in 2002. The abortion rate , which
is the number of women having abortions relative to the total
population, also decreased 1% in 2001 and 0.9% in 2002. That's not as
rapid a decrease as had been seen in earlier years, but it is a
decrease nonetheless.
We give much weight to Guttmacher's analysis. Their figures are widely
used and accepted by both anti-abortion groups and abortion-rights
advocates. Their surveys of abortion providers go back to 1973, and
Stassen cites them himself as the source for the number of abortions
in 2000.
Guttmacher has little motive to make Bush and his anti-abortion
policies look good. The institute was founded in 1968 in honor of a
former president of the Planned Parenthood Federation of America, and
describes its mission as being" to protect the reproductive choice of
all women and men in the United States and throughout the world." Had
Stassen's numbers proven accurate, the Institute "would have reported
and widely publicized a rise in abortion rates," said Darabi. But
facts are facts.
Update, May 26:
Even Stassen now concedes that he can't substantiate his original
claim. In a memo dated May 25, which he sent to FactCheck.org
just as we were posting our article, he praises the Guttmacher
study and says it is "significantly better" than his own earlier
effort:
Stassen, May 25: I based my estimates in October on the sixteen states
whose data I could find then. Now, seven months later, and with their
extensive data-gathering ability, AGI (Alan Guttmacher Institute)
bases their results on 44 states. They say their results are only
estimates, projections, but I believe their results are significantly
better than what I could have obtained seven months ago. I affirm
their methods and their study, and am grateful for their effort.
Nevertheless, Stassen still argues that the small rate of decline that
Guttmacher reports still constitutes a "stall" in what had earlier
been a more rapid decline. He also continues to criticize the Bush
administration for economic policies that he says bring hardship on
low-income women. "It is clear to me that undermining the financial
support for mothers, undermining the availability of medical
insurance, and increasing the jobless rate for prospective mates so
that they are less likely to marry, has a bad influence on abortion
rates and infant mortality rates."
For the full text of Stassen's response see "supporting documents" at
right.
Correction: Our original article stated that Sen. Clinton had omitted
to mention states in which abortions had decreased. In fact, as was
obvious from the full quote we gave, she did state that abortions had
decreased in four states. This updated article corrects our error.
Sources:
Glen Harold Stassen, "Pro-Life? Look at the fruits," Sojomail, 13
October 2004.
Glen Harold Stassen and Gary Krane, "Why Abortion Rate Is Up In Bush
Years," Houston Chronicle, 17 October 2004
Sen. Hillary Clinton, "Remarks by Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton to
the NYS Family Planning Providers," 24 January 2005, website.
"Meet the Press," Transcript, National Broadcasting Company, 30
January 2005.
"Meet the Press," Transcript, National Broadcasting Company, 22 May
2005.
"Decades-Long Decline in Number and Rate of U.S. Abortions Continues,
New Analysis Shows," Press Release, The Alan Guttmacher Institute, 19
May 2005.
# Link URL
1. Trends in Abortion in the United States
http://www.agi-usa.org/presentations/trends.pdf
2. Pro-Life? Look at the fruits
http://64.233.161.104/search?q=cache:NKQ2Mhk_8bQJ:www.sojo.net/index.cfm%3Faction%3Dsojomail.display%26issue%3D041013+%22pro-life%3F+look+at+the+fruits%22&hl=en
3. Why Abortion Rate Is Up In Bush Years
http://chron.com/cs/CDA/ssistory.mpl/editorial/outlook/2851283
4. website http://clinton.senate.gov/~clinton/speeches/2005125A05.html
5. Transcript http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/7924139/
6. Decades-Long Decline in Number and Rate of U.S. Abortions
Continues, New Analysis Shows
http://www.agi-usa.org/media/nr/2005/05/19/index.html
.
|
|
|
|
| User: "Tim" |
|
| Title: Re: Bush lies should get him tossed out, but..................................................... |
05 Jun 2005 11:09:06 PM |
|
|
tenjets wrote:
factcheck.org is a great resource...although, you turn it into political
hackery when you add your own emphasis ("But the claim is untrue. But the
claim is untrue.") . Misleading! Also, it's interesting that a conservative
would cite a resource that seems to be in favor of reproductive rights: "The
(Alan Guttmacher) Institute's mission is to protect the reproductive choices
of all women and men in the United States and throughout the world. It is to
support their ability to obtain the information and services needed to
achieve their full human rights, safeguard their health and exercise their
individual responsibilities in regard to sexual behavior and relationships,
reproduction and family formation."
You should go back to factcheck.org and do a search on "swift boats"
"ADOLF LIBERAL" <Libs-R-Hatched-not-born@the.founders.were.christians.org>
wrote in message news:47b4a15em7qfq8sfcm5jke06gtq0ki2dlb@4ax.com...
The Biography of a Bad Statistic
http://www.factcheck.org/printerfriendly330.html
Abortions rising under Bush? Not true.
http://www.factcheck.org/printerfriendly330.html
How that false claim came to be -and lives on.
May 25, 2005
Modified:May 26, 2005
Politicians from Hillary Clinton and John Kerry to Howard Dean
have recently contended that abortions have increased since
George W. Bush took office in 2001.
http://www.factcheck.org/printerfriendly330.html
This claim is false. This claim is false. This claim is false.
http://www.factcheck.org/printerfriendly330.html
It's based on an an opinion piece that used data from only 16 states.
A study by the Alan Guttmacher Institute of 43 states found that
abortions have actually decreased.
Update, May 26: The author of the original claim now concedes
that the Guttmacher study is "significantly better" than his own.
Analysis:
http://www.factcheck.org/printerfriendly330.html
A number of politicians and organizations have been circulating an
interesting and surprising idea: that abortions have gone up under
George W. Bush's watch. The claim is repeated by supporters of
abortion rights as evidence that Bush's anti-abortion policies have
backfired, or at least been ineffective.
But the claim is untrue. But the claim is untrue.
http://www.factcheck.org/printerfriendly330.html
In fact, according to the respected Alan Guttmacher Institute, a
20-year decline in abortion rates continued after Bush took office,
as shown in this graph
SEE IMAGE @
http://factcheck.asc.upenn.edu/imagefiles/Abortion%20Rate.jpg
or http://www.factcheck.org/printerfriendly330.html
IMAGE Source: Alan Guttmacher Institute,
"Trends in Abortion in the United States "
Here's the story of how a false idea took hold.
The Birth of a Bad Statistic
http://www.factcheck.org/printerfriendly330.html
The claim that abortions are rising again can be traced back to an
opinion piece by Glen Harold Stassen, an ethics professor at Fuller
Theological Seminary. His article originally appeared in a web and
e-mail publication of Sojourners, a Christian magazine, in October
2004. Several other outlets, including the Houston Chronicle, also
ran a similar piece co-authored by Stassen and journalist Gary Krane.
The articles generated a good deal of discussion on a number of both
liberal and conservative blogs.
Describing himself as "consistently pro-life," Stassen reported that
he "analyzed the data on abortion during the Bush presidency" and
reached some "disturbing" conclusions. "Under President Bush, the
decade-long trend of declining abortion rates appears to have
reversed," he said. "Given the trends of the 1990s, 52,000 more
abortions occurred in the United States in 2002 than would have been
expected before this change of direction."
Stassen's broad conclusion wasn't justified by the sketchy information
he cited, however. Furthermore, a primary organization he cited
specifically as a source for historical data now contradicts him,
saying abortions have continued to decline since Bush took office.
More about that later.
Hillary Clinton Uses It
http://www.factcheck.org/printerfriendly330.html
Stassen offered his article as evidence that Bush's economic policies
were driving pregnant women to abortion. And although he opposes
abortion, his claim was soon picked up and repeated uncritically by
the other side - supporters of abortion rights. In a speech to
family-planning providers in New York on January 24, 2005 , Sen.
Hillary Clinton recounted decreases in the abortion rate that occurred
in her husband's administration, then lamented that the situation had
changed. She repeated exactly some of the figures that Stassen had
given in his Houston Chronicle article.
Clinton : But unfortunately, in the last few years,
while we are engaged in an ideological debate instead
of one that uses facts and evidence and common sense,
the rate of abortion is on the rise in some states .
In the three years since President Bush took office,
8 states saw an increase in abortion rates
(14.6% average increase), and four saw a decrease
(4.3% average), so we have a lot of work still ahead
of us. http://www.factcheck.org/printerfriendly330.html
Clinton was careful not to state flatly that abortions were increasing
nationally . She spoke only of "some states" in which the rate had
increased. But she invited her listeners to conclude that the national
trend to fewer abortions had reversed itself since Bush took office.
And in fact a few days later, in an interview on NBC's Meet the Press
on January 30, 2005 , Sen. John Kerry claimed that abortions were up,
period:
Kerry: And do you know that in fact abortion has gone
up in these last few years with the draconian policies
that Republicans have..
http://www.factcheck.org/printerfriendly330.html
A Kerry spokesman confirmed at the time to FactCheck.org that Kerry
was relying on the Stassen article for his information.
Finally, as recently as May 24, 2005 , Democratic National Committee
chairman Howard Dean also asserted on NBC News' Meet the Press:
Dean:You know that abortions have gone up 25
percent since George Bush was President ?
http://www.factcheck.org/printerfriendly330.html
Dean's "statistic" went unchallenged by moderator Tim Russert, so
millions of viewers probably got the impression that Dean's very
specific 25 percent figure was correct. But Dean was wrong -- and
by a wide margin.
We asked the Democratic National Committee repeatedly where
Dean got his 25 percent figure, but we got no response. Even if
Stassen's estimate of 52,000 additional abortions were correct, that
would figure to an increase of less than 4 percent. And in any case
the rate is going down, not up, according to the most authoritative
figures available.
Cherrypicking Data
http://www.factcheck.org/printerfriendly330.html
A close reading of Stassen's article makes clear that he didn't even
pretend to have comprehensive national data on abortion rates. He said
he looked at data from 16 states only -- and didn't even name most of
them.
Stassen said that in the four states that had already posted
statistics for three full years of Bush's first term, he found that
abortion was up. Twelve more states had posted statistics for two
years of Bush's term - 2001 and 2002 - and here the picture was mixed.
According to Stassen, "Eight states saw an increase in abortion rates
(14.6 percent average increase), and five saw a decrease (4.3 percent
average)." A version of the piece in the Houston Chronicle reported
instead that four saw a decrease with a 4.3 percent average.
So Stassen was projecting findings onto the entire country from 12
states that he said had showed an increase and 5 (or maybe 4) that he
said had shown a decrease. That leaves a total of 34 other states for
which Stassen had no data whatsoever.
Furthermore, Stassen is contradicted by one of the very organizations
whose data he cites. The only primary source of data that Stassen
cites specifically in the article is the Alan Guttmacher Institute, a
nonprofit organization that conducts a periodic survey of all known
abortion providers, which numbered nearly 2,000 at last count.
Guttmacher's statistics are widely used and respected by all sides in
the abortion debate. It is the only organization to compile and
publish national abortion-rate data other than the federal Center for
Disease Control. CDC's official statistics, however, run only through
2001, so they shed no light on what has happened since Bush took
office.
And Guttmacher - as we shall see - now says abortion rates have
decreased since Bush took office. And that's based on data from 43
states, not just 16.
De-bunking the statistic
http://www.factcheck.org/printerfriendly330.html
Stassen's numbers, and the widespread acceptance they seemed to be
getting, prompted the Guttmacher Institute to conduct a special
analysis to update its comprehensive census of abortion providers for
the year 2000. The increases that Stassen reported "would be a
significant change in a long-standing trend in the US ," Leila Darabi
of the institute explained to Factcheck.
Besides the fact that Stassen claimed to have data only from 16
states, the Guttmacher Institute said it is likely that many of the
states Stassen picked have higher abortion rates historically, have a
higher concentration of population subgroups that tend to have more
abortions, and see abortion rates rise more quickly when they do go
up. Stassen himself named only Kentucky, Michigan, Pennsylvania and
Colorado among the 16 states he says he studied, but his co-author on
the Houston Chronicle article listed each state in a separate article
posted on the Internet.
The Guttmacher Institute found that two of the states Stassen used had
unreliable reporting systems. In Colorado , for instance, where
Stassen claimed that rates "skyrocketed 111 percent," the reporting
procedure had been recently changed in order to compensate for
historic underreporting. Guttmacher also found Arizona had an
inconsistent reporting system.
The Facts
http://www.factcheck.org/printerfriendly330.html
The Guttmacher Institute announced its findings May 19. Guttmacher
analyzed available government data "as an interim measure until
another provider census can be conducted" according to a news release.
The interim study analyzed data from 43 states determined to have
reliable state reporting systems.
What it found was that the number of abortions decreased nationwide -
by 0.8% in 2001 and by another 0.8% in 2002. The abortion rate , which
is the number of women having abortions relative to the total
population, also decreased 1% in 2001 and 0.9% in 2002. That's not as
rapid a decrease as had been seen in earlier years, but it is a
decrease nonetheless.
We give much weight to Guttmacher's analysis. Their figures are widely
used and accepted by both anti-abortion groups and abortion-rights
advocates. Their surveys of abortion providers go back to 1973, and
Stassen cites them himself as the source for the number of abortions
in 2000.
Guttmacher has little motive to make Bush and his anti-abortion
policies look good. The institute was founded in 1968 in honor of a
former president of the Planned Parenthood Federation of America, and
describes its mission as being" to protect the reproductive choice of
all women and men in the United States and throughout the world." Had
Stassen's numbers proven accurate, the Institute "would have reported
and widely publicized a rise in abortion rates," said Darabi. But
facts are facts.
Update, May 26:
Even Stassen now concedes that he can't substantiate his original
claim. In a memo dated May 25, which he sent to FactCheck.org
just as we were posting our article, he praises the Guttmacher
study and says it is "significantly better" than his own earlier
effort:
Stassen, May 25: I based my estimates in October on the sixteen states
whose data I could find then. Now, seven months later, and with their
extensive data-gathering ability, AGI (Alan Guttmacher Institute)
bases their results on 44 states. They say their results are only
estimates, projections, but I believe their results are significantly
better than what I could have obtained seven months ago. I affirm
their methods and their study, and am grateful for their effort.
Nevertheless, Stassen still argues that the small rate of decline that
Guttmacher reports still constitutes a "stall" in what had earlier
been a more rapid decline. He also continues to criticize the Bush
administration for economic policies that he says bring hardship on
low-income women. "It is clear to me that undermining the financial
support for mothers, undermining the availability of medical
insurance, and increasing the jobless rate for prospective mates so
that they are less likely to marry, has a bad influence on abortion
rates and infant mortality rates."
For the full text of Stassen's response see "supporting documents" at
right.
Correction: Our original article stated that Sen. Clinton had omitted
to mention states in which abortions had decreased. In fact, as was
obvious from the full quote we gave, she did state that abortions had
decreased in four states. This updated article corrects our error.
Sources:
Glen Harold Stassen, "Pro-Life? Look at the fruits," Sojomail, 13
October 2004.
Glen Harold Stassen and Gary Krane, "Why Abortion Rate Is Up In Bush
Years," Houston Chronicle, 17 October 2004
Sen. Hillary Clinton, "Remarks by Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton to
the NYS Family Planning Providers," 24 January 2005, website.
"Meet the Press," Transcript, National Broadcasting Company, 30
January 2005.
"Meet the Press," Transcript, National Broadcasting Company, 22 May
2005.
"Decades-Long Decline in Number and Rate of U.S. Abortions Continues,
New Analysis Shows," Press Release, The Alan Guttmacher Institute, 19
May 2005.
# Link URL
1. Trends in Abortion in the United States
http://www.agi-usa.org/presentations/trends.pdf
2. Pro-Life? Look at the fruits
http://64.233.161.104/search?q=cache:NKQ2Mhk_8bQJ:www.sojo.net/index.cfm%3Faction%3Dsojomail.display%26issue%3D041013+%22pro-life%3F+look+at+the+fruits%22&hl=en
3. Why Abortion Rate Is Up In Bush Years
http://chron.com/cs/CDA/ssistory.mpl/editorial/outlook/2851283
4. website http://clinton.senate.gov/~clinton/speeches/2005125A05.html
5. Transcript http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/7924139/
6. Decades-Long Decline in Number and Rate of U.S. Abortions
Continues, New Analysis Shows
http://www.agi-usa.org/media/nr/2005/05/19/index.html
I think his intent is to draw heat and the attention away from the
content of the message itself - he doesn't want people to look up the
Downing Street Memo - it's too hot.
Tim
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