http://counterpunch.org/kolko12172005.html
December 17, 2005
Defeated in Iraq, Bankrupt at Home, Despised Around the Globe (And
That's Just the Good News)
The Decline of the American Empire
By GABRIEL KOLKO
.....................................................................................................
The US dilemma, and it is a fundamental contradiction, is that its
expensive military power is largely useless as an instrument of
foreign policy.
It lost the war in Vietnam, and while it managed to overthrow popular
regimes in Brazil, Chile, and elsewhere in Latin America, its military
power is useless in dealing with the effects of larger social and
political problems--and Latin America, the Middle East, and East Asia
are more independent of American-control than ever.
Strategically, also, the US is far worse off in the oil-rich Middle
East because it made every mistake possible.
It supported Islamic fundamentalism against Communism but also against
secular nationalism, Iraq against Iran in the 1980s, and it is not
simply losing the war in Iraq militarily but also alienating most of
its former friends in the region.
And Iran is emerging as the decisive power in the area.
The basic problem the world today confronts is American ambition, an
ambition based on the illusion that its great military power allows it
to define political and social trends everywhere it chooses to do so.
When the USSR existed it was somewhat more inhibited because Soviet
military power neutralized American military might and there was a
partial equilibrium-a deterring balance of terror-- in Europe.
Moreover, the USSR always advised its friends and nations in its orbit
to move carefully not to provoke the US, an inhibition that no longer
exists.
On the other hand, just as the Warsaw Pact has disappeared, NATO is
well along in the process of breaking up and going the way of SEATO,
CENTO, etc.
The 1999 war against Serbia made its demise much more likely but the
US-led alliance disagreed profoundly over the Iraq War and now is
likely to dissolve in fact, if not formally.
The Bush Administration produced a crisis with its alliance and has
created profound instability in Iraq, which was always an artificial
state since the British created it after World War One resulted in the
end of the Ottoman Empire.
Eight nations have nuclear weapons already, but the UN says another 30
or so have the skill and resources to become nuclear powers.
The world is escaping the US, but it is also escaping the forms of
control which were in place when the USSR existed and states were too
poor to build nuclear weapons.
The world is more dangerous now, in large part because the US refuses
to recognize the limits of its power and retains the ambitions it had
50 years ago.
But the spread of all kinds of weapons also has its own momentum-one
that US arms exports aids immeasurably.
Iraq was not at the top of the Bush Administration's agenda when it
came to power in 2001.
Bush was committed, however, to a "forward-leaning" foreign policy, to
use Rumsfeld's words, and greater military activism.
Had September 11 not occurred, it is more likely that the Bush
administration would have confronted China, which has nuclear weapons.
This administration deems China a peer competitor in the vast East
Asia region.
It still may do so, although Iraq has been a total disaster for the
administration--militarily and geopolitically--and greatly alienated
the US public (faster than Vietnam did).
The US military is falling apart:
its weapons have been ineffective, politically Iraq is likely to break
up into regional fiefdoms (as Afghanistan has), and perhaps civil
war--no one knows.
From the Iraqi viewpoint the war was a disaster, but it also repeated
the failures the Americans confronted in Korea, Vietnam, and
elsewhere.
That the Iraq resistance is divided will not save the US from defeat.
Few believe Iraq will be spared great trauma.
In fact, many American officials predicted this before the war began
and they were ignored--just as they were ignored when they predicted
disaster in Vietnam in the 1960s.
We live in a tragic world and war is considered more virtuous than
peace--and since arms-makers profit from wars and not peace,
conventional wisdom is reinforced by their lobbies and by preaching
the cult of weaponry.
The US may explore how to end its predicament in Iraq but only Iran
can help it.
Ironically, Iran has gained most geopolitically from Saddam Hussein's
defeat and has no incentive to save the Bush Administration from the
defeat now staring at it--both in Iraq and in future elections in the
US.
The world is escaping American control, and Soviet prudence no longer
inhibits many movements and nations.
World opposition is becoming decentralized to a much greater extent
and the US is less than ever able to control it--although it may go
financially bankrupt and break up its alliances in the process of
seeking to be hegemonic.
This is cause for a certain optimism, based on a realistic assessment
of the balance-of-power in the world.
I think we must avoid the pessimism-optimism trap but be realistic.
Although the Americans are very destructive, they are also losing wars
and wrecking themselves economically and politically.
But for a century the world has fought wars, and while the US has been
the leading power by far-in making wars since 1946, it has no monopoly
on folly.
But it is crucial to remember that the US is only a reflection of the
militarism and irrationality that has blinded many leaders of mankind
for over a century.
The task is not only to prevent the US from inflicting more damage on
the hapless world--Iraq at this moment--but to root out the historic,
global illusions that led to its aggression.
__________________________________________________________
Gabriel Kolko is the leading historian of modern warfare. He is the
author of the classic Century of War: Politics, Conflicts and Society
Since 1914 and Another Century of War?. He has also written the best
history of the Vietnam War, Anatomy of a War: Vietnam, the US and the
Modern Historical Experience. His latest book, The Age of War, will be
published in March 2006. He can be reached at: kolko@counterpunch.org.
Harry
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