May 10, 2007
Does The 2007 IPCC Statement For Policymakers Accurately Present The
Observations Of Recent Global Temperature Trends?
http://climatesci.colorado.edu/2007/05/10/does-the-ipcc-statement-for-policymakers-accurately-present-the-observations-of-recent-global-temperature-trends/

Filed under: Climate Change Metrics, Climate Change Forcings and
Feedbacks - Roger Pielke Sr. @ 7:00 am

The 2007 IPCC Statement for Policymakers (SPM) makes the following
finding,

"Eleven of the last twelve years (1995 -2006) rank among the 12
warmest years in the instrumental record of global surface temperature
(since 1850)" [based on "The average of near surface air temperature
over land, and sea surface temperature."].

and

"Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from
observations of increases in global average air and ocean
temperatures."

This claim, which is repeated throughout the media reports on the IPCC
report, however, is disingenuous. Other analyses of global heat system
changes do not support the claim of continued warming of the climate
system.

Climate Science has discussed ocean heat content changes (e.g. see)
and has reported on the recent correction which concluded that the
upper ocean did not cool during this time period (see), although the
upper ocean has not warmed either which is at variance to what is
expected from the IPCC Statement of Policymakers.

In this weblog, we report on data that was conveniently ignored in the
2007 IPCC SPM in their report on whether or not the climate system is
continuing to warm. The data are the global average temperatures for
different layers in the atmosphere from satellite measurements of the
Earth's microwave emissions by Remote Sensing Systems (RSS)

This data can be used to assess whether the warming trends reported in
the 2007 IPCC SPM have continued in recent years. As shown clearly in
Figure 7 on the RSS website>, the following conclusions can be made:

1. Since about 2002 there has been NO statistically significant global
average warming in the lower and middle troposphere,

and

2. Since about 1995 there has been NO statistically significant
cooling in the stratosphere.

The IPCC SPM conclusion that "warming of the climate system is
unequivocal" is wrong as it ignores the lack of such warming in recent
years by these other metrics of climate system heat changes [there is
also an informative comment #11 on this issue under the weblog
http://climatesci.colorado.edu/2007/04/15/the-correction-to-the-lyman-et-al-2006-paper-is-available/#comment-167200].

Their focus on the global average near surface temperature trends
neglects to report that there are major issues with the robustness of
this climate metric of global warming as reported in the papers cited
in

Pielke Sr., R.A., C. Davey, D. Niyogi, S. Fall, J. Steinweg-Woods, K.
Hubbard, X. Lin, M. Cai, Y.-K. Lim, H. Li, J. Nielsen-Gammon, K.
Gallo, R. Hale, R. Mahmood, R.T. McNider, and P. Blanken, 2007:
Unresolved issues with the assessment of multi-decadal global land
surface temperature trends. J. Geophys. Res. in press,

many of which were available to the writers of the IPCC SPM but
conveniently ignored. At the very least, the lack of recent
tropospheric warming and stratospheric cooling in the RSS data and the
warming claimed for the near surface air temperatures conflicts with
the multi-decadal global climate models in terms of how these
temperatures are predicted to change.

Perhaps global warming will begin again. However, the neglect to
include the recent lack of tropospheric warming and stratospheric
cooling (both of which are predicted to continue quasi-linearly for
the coming decades by the multi-decadal global climate models, except
for major volcanic eruptions) results in a seriously biased report by
the IPCC. It has been disappointing that the media so far has chosen
to parrot the statements in the IPCC SPMs rather than do investigative
reporting on these issues.


--
There may come a time when the CO2 police will wander the earth telling
the poor and the dispossed how many dung chips they can put on their
cook fires. -- Captain Compassion.

Wherever I go it will be well with me, for it was well with me here, not
on account of the place, but of my judgments which I shall carry away
with me, for no one can deprive me of these; on the contrary, they alone
are my property, and cannot be taken away, and to possess them suffices
me wherever I am or whatever I do. -- EPICTETUS

"Civilization is the interval between Ice Ages." -- Will Durant.


"Progress is the increasing control of the environment by life.
--Will Durant

Joseph R. Darancette
daranc@NOSPAMcharter.net

Does The 2007 IPCC Statement For Policymakers Accurately Present
The Observations Of Recent Global Temperature Trends?