Ritter says we will be at war with Iran by June.
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European Officials Warn Iran
Nuclear Activity Would Mean End Of Talks, Letter Says
By Dafna Linzer
Washington Post Staff Writer
Thursday, May 12, 2005; Page A01
European officials notified Iran for the first time yesterday that they
will walk away from two years of talks and sign on to a Bush
administration strategy for punitive measures against Tehran if it makes
good on threats to resume nuclear work in coming days.
In a sharply worded letter to Hassan Rouhani, the head of Iran's Supreme
National Security Council, the foreign ministers of Britain, France and
Germany warned that such work "would bring the negotiating process to an
end." The letter added: "The consequences could only be negative for Iran."
The letter was an attempt to avert an escalation in the crisis over a
program Iran says it developed in secret to produce nuclear energy, not
atomic weapons. It appeared to have an immediate effect.
After weeks of threats, Iranian officials said they decided to hold off
for now on a plan to notify the International Atomic Energy Agency today
of their intent to restart a uranium-conversion facility in the town of
Isfahan. Instead, an Iranian diplomat who spoke on the condition of
anonymity said his government was exploring an offer contained in the
letter for a four-way meeting sometime in the next two weeks to discuss
the latest flare-up.
The willingness of the European trio to take Iran to task if it ends a
suspension of its nuclear program after six months indicated that the
Bush administration is having some success in persuading key allies to
take a tougher approach with the Islamic republic.
The European shift was prompted in part by frustration with Iran but
also by a change in tactics by the White House. After two years of
refusing to back Europe's diplomatic track with Iran, the administration
decided in March to support the process in exchange for written
guarantees that if talks fell apart, Europe would agree to take the
issue to the U.N. Security Council.
"This is the closest we've gotten to reporting Iran to the council since
November 2003," said one U.S. official. If Iran informs the IAEA that it
plans to resume work at any nuclear facility, "it will set off a series
of outcomes and escalations towards the Security Council that will be
hard to stop," said the official, who would discuss the sensitive
discussions only on the condition of anonymity.
But neither European nor U.S. officials were confident yesterday of what
a referral to the council would ultimately mean or how much support they
could expect there. Unlike the IAEA board, the council has the
international legal authority to impose economic sanctions or threaten
Iran with force if its program is seen as a danger.
Both China and Russia have said they want the issue resolved within the
IAEA, and Security Council members are leery of making any moves that
could be perceived as hostile or that might be used to justify later
military action against Iran.
Iran's program is within its rights under the nuclear Non-Proliferation
Treaty, which allows countries access to sensitive technology as long as
it is used for peaceful purposes and not for weapons development.
Iran maintains that it is adhering to that arrangement. But the scale of
its program, as well as the secrecy under which it was developed, has
undermined its position and led the Bush administration to believe Iran
intends to build nuclear bombs.
Iran's main nuclear site was exposed by a dissident group in 2002,
setting off an investigation now in its third year. The U.N. inspectors
have said they have no proof that Iran is trying to build nuclear
weapons. But the Bush administration has not accepted those findings.
Under pressure, Iran suspended its program in an agreement with France,
Britain and Germany that was supposed to yield economic benefits in
exchange. In their letter, a copy of which was made available to The
Washington Post yesterday, the European countries emphasized that the
prospect of lucrative trade deals is still on the table but that "this
sort of progress will be jeopardized" if the suspension breaks and the
talks fall apart.
Iranian officials, too, have expressed frustration. They had expected
the negotiations to be brief but say they now find themselves deep in
Iran's presidential election season with little to show after six months.
At a round of talks in London last month, Iran offered a four-phase plan
that would allow it to resume operating much of its program, including
3,000 centrifuges, equipment used to enrich uranium. That kind of
industrial-scale capability could allow Iran to produce enough
bomb-grade uranium for a single nuclear device within a year.
Iran, which is considered by U.S. intelligence to be seven years away
from a bomb, has promised not to enrich uranium to those levels and said
the machines could operate under 24-hour surveillance by U.N. inspectors.
But that offer was rejected by European negotiators who believe the only
guarantee is an end to enrichment. If the sides are not able to resolve
the latest crisis, Iran could go ahead with work at Isfahan. That
decision would trigger an emergency meeting of the IAEA board next
Wednesday in Vienna, where U.S and European negotiators would issue an
ultimatum to Iran to back down, officials said.
If Iran breaks IAEA seals on equipment in Isfahan, one European official
said, "they will be referred to the U.N. Security Council" during the
board's regularly scheduled meeting on June 13. IAEA inspectors arrived
in Isfahan yesterday and are standing by in case the Iranians decide to
restart the facility.
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