Even fiscal conservatives, traditionally allied with the Republican
White House, were skeptical of Bush's plans.
"While it's true that Kerry hasn't provided a detailed plan, neither
has the president," said Heritage Foundation budget analyst Brian
Riedl.
William Niskanen, chairman of the Cato Institute, said Bush's warnings
about Kerry's spending plans were "inconsistent" with his own
proposals.
"There's no way to accomplish (Bush's) major new measures, including
tax reform, without substantial increases in spending," Niskanen said.
Stephen Moore of the Club for Growth, a group that raises money for
conservative political candidates, said Bush was not being "very
forthright" about his plans.
He called Bush's fiscal record "abysmal," adding that under both Bush
and Kerry "fiscal responsibility takes the back seat."
This week congressional analysts warned the deficit will balloon to a
cumulative $2.29 trillion over the next decade.
Bush's most ambitious proposal -- adding personal retirement accounts
to Social Security -- may be the most costly up front.
The estimated cost of diverting some payroll taxes to these private
accounts ranges from $1 trillion to $2 trillion over 10 years,
analysts say.
Bush's own economic advisers say tapping the bond markets to pay for
private accounts could dramatically increase the federal debt for
decades.
But the Bush campaign says Bush has yet to settle on a plan to reform
the retirement system or on a means to finance it.
"The only cost that is certain is the cost of inaction," said White
House spokeswoman Claire Buchan.
Tax code changes are also a big unknown.
Whether Bush seeks a flat tax or something less ambitious, White House
officials insist any changes will be revenue neutral, meaning they
will not undercut federal revenues.
But Riedl said the White House would have to broaden the tax base "to
make up any revenue that would be lost."
That could mean raising taxes on some by closing tax loopholes.
Moore said that would be "very difficult" given the clout of business
interests.
Democrats say Bush's tax credits for health care could cost $380
billion over 10 years.
Fixing the alternative minimum tax before it affects growing numbers
of middle-class Americans: $300 billion.
Moon and Mars missions: another $250 billion.
From Reuters, 9/10/04:
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story2&u=/nm/20040910/ts_nm/campaign_promises_dc
Fiscal Conservatives Challenge Bush
By Adam Entous
WASHINGTON (Reuters) -
President Bush, who accuses his Democratic rival of keeping his budget
plans secret, has yet to offer plans of his own for funding his
campaign promises and cutting the deficit in half, fiscal
conservatives said on Friday.
Bush is campaigning for a second term promising to overhaul the Social
Security retirement system and the U.S. tax code.
He is pushing for more spending on job training and for expanding
health care tax credits.
But Bush has yet to say how he will pay for it, even as he charges
that his Democratic presidential rival, John Kerry, is hiding "details
on how they would raise spending and lower the deficit" until after
the Nov. 2 election.
Bush campaign spokesman Scott Stanzel said the White House would
release some details about Bush's plans "in the coming weeks," and he
insisted the new proposals would "not significantly impact our ability
to cut the deficit in half in five years" from this year's projected
record of $445 billion.
Bush aides estimated the cost of the president's new spending
proposals at $74 billion over 10 years, but the figure excludes Social
Security and tax code changes among others.
An analysis by the Kerry campaign put the cost at closer to $4.1
trillion over 10 years, including Social Security reform, health care
tax credits, Bush's space initiative as well as the war in Iraq, which
Bush leaves out of his budget estimates.
Kerry economic policy director Jason Furman said Bush would have to
pay for his new programs by "borrowing money, which means we're all
going to pay for it."
______________________________________________________
Borrow and spend: A Bush family tradition.
Harry
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