Global temperature 2008: Another top-ten year
3 January 2008
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/2008/pr20080103.html

2008 is set to be cooler globally than recent years say Met Office and
University of East Anglia climate scientists, but is still forecast to
be one of the top-ten warmest years.

Each January the Met Office, in conjunction with the University of
East Anglia, issues a forecast of the global surface temperature for
the coming year. The forecast takes into account known contributing
factors, such as El Niņo and La Niņa, increasing greenhouse gas
concentrations, the cooling influences of industrial aerosol
particles, solar effects and natural variations of the oceans.

Met Office forecast for global temperature for 2008
Global temperature for 2008 is expected to be 0.37 °C above the
long-term (1961-1990) average of 14.0 °C, the coolest year since 2000,
when the value was 0.24 °C.

For 2008, the development of a strong La Niņa in the tropical Pacific
Ocean will limit the warming trend of the global climate. During La
Niņa, cold waters upwell to cool large areas of the ocean and land
surface temperatures. The forecast includes for the first time a new
decadal forecast using a climate model. This indicates that the
current La Niņa event will weaken only slowly through 2008,
disappearing by the end of the year.

Prof. Chris Folland from the Met Office Hadley Centre said: "Phenomena
such as El Niņo and La Niņa have a significant influence on global
surface temperature and the current strong La Niņa will act to limit
temperatures in 2008. However, mean temperature is still expected to
be significantly warmer than in 2000, when a similar strength La Niņa
pegged temperatures to 0.24 °C above the 1961-90 average. Sharply
renewed warming is likely once La Niņa declines."

These cyclical influences can mask underlying warming trends with
Prof. Phil Jones, Director of the Climatic Research Unit, University
of East Anglia, saying: "The fact that 2008 is forecast to be cooler
than any of the last seven years (and that 2007 did not break the
record warmth set on 1998) does not mean that global warming has gone
away. What matters is the underlying rate of warming - the period
2001-2007 with an average of 0.44 °C above the 1961-90 average was
0.21 °C warmer than corresponding values for the period 1991-2000."

Notes to editors:

The Met Office Hadley Centre is the UK's foremost centre for climate
change research. Partly funded by Defra (the Department for
Environment, Food and Rural Affairs) and the Ministry of Defence.
The Met Office, in collaboration with the University of East Anglia,
maintains a global temperature record which is used in the reports of
the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

The forecast value for 2008 mean temperature is considered
indistinguishable from any of the years 2001-7, given the
uncertainties in the data.

It is most unlikely that 2008 will be as warm as or warmer than the
current warmest year of 1998, which was 0.52 °C above the long-term
1961-1990 average because it was dominated by an extreme El Niņo.
Over the eight years, 2000-2007, since the Met Office has issued
forecasts of annual global temperature, the mean value of the forecast
error was just 0.07 °C.

The first Met Office decadal forecast to 2014 was issued in 2007.
Interannual variations of global surface temperature are strongly
affected by the warming influences of El Niņo events the cooling
influences of La Niņa events. The year 2007, with a provisionally
assessed temperature of 0.41 °C (above long-term average), was colder
than forecast. This was due to a much quicker than expected decline of
a moderate El Niņo that warms the climate, followed by the development
of the strong cooling influence of the current La Niņa.

The current La Niņa event is now the strongest since 1999-2000. The
lag between La Niņa and the full global surface temperature response
means that the cooling effect of La Niņa is expected to be a little
greater in 2008 than it was during 2007.

--
If you disagree with the theories and dogmas of Marxism or Scientific
Socialism
then you are a tool of Capitalist interests. If you disagree with the
theories
or dogmas of Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming then you are a tool
of
Capitalistic interests. Notice a pattern here? -- Captain Compassion


The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority but to
escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane. -- Marcus Aurelius

"...the whole world, including the United States, including all that
we have known and cared for, will sink into the abyss of a new Dark
Age, made more sinister, and perhaps more protracted, by the lights
of perverted science." -- Sir Winston Churchill

Joseph R. Darancette
daranc@NOSPAMcharter.net

Global temperature 2008: Another top-ten year
3 January 2008
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/2008/pr20080103.html

2008 is set to be cooler globally than recent years say Met Office and
University of East Anglia climate scientists, but is still forecast to
be one of the top-ten warmest years.

Each January the Met Office, in conjunction with the University of
East Anglia, issues a forecast of the global surface temperature for
the coming year. The forecast takes into account known contributing
factors, such as El Niņo and La Niņa, increasing greenhouse gas
concentrations, the cooling influences of industrial aerosol
particles, solar effects and natural variations of the oceans.

Met Office forecast for global temperature for 2008
Global temperature for 2008 is expected to be 0.37 °C above the
long-term (1961-1990) average of 14.0 °C, the coolest year since 2000,
when the value was 0.24 °C.

For 2008, the development of a strong La Niņa in the tropical Pacific
Ocean will limit the warming trend of the global climate. During La
Niņa, cold waters upwell to cool large areas of the ocean and land
surface temperatures. The forecast includes for the first time a new
decadal forecast using a climate model. This indicates that the
current La Niņa event will weaken only slowly through 2008,
disappearing by the end of the year.

Prof. Chris Folland from the Met Office Hadley Centre said: "Phenomena
such as El Niņo and La Niņa have a significant influence on global
surface temperature and the current strong La Niņa will act to limit
temperatures in 2008. However, mean temperature is still expected to
be significantly warmer than in 2000, when a similar strength La Niņa
pegged temperatures to 0.24 °C above the 1961-90 average. Sharply
renewed warming is likely once La Niņa declines."

These cyclical influences can mask underlying warming trends with
Prof. Phil Jones, Director of the Climatic Research Unit, University
of East Anglia, saying: "The fact that 2008 is forecast to be cooler
than any of the last seven years (and that 2007 did not break the
record warmth set on 1998) does not mean that global warming has gone
away. What matters is the underlying rate of warming - the period
2001-2007 with an average of 0.44 °C above the 1961-90 average was
0.21 °C warmer than corresponding values for the period 1991-2000."

Notes to editors:

The Met Office Hadley Centre is the UK's foremost centre for climate
change research. Partly funded by Defra (the Department for
Environment, Food and Rural Affairs) and the Ministry of Defence.
The Met Office, in collaboration with the University of East Anglia,
maintains a global temperature record which is used in the reports of
the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

The forecast value for 2008 mean temperature is considered
indistinguishable from any of the years 2001-7, given the
uncertainties in the data.

It is most unlikely that 2008 will be as warm as or warmer than the
current warmest year of 1998, which was 0.52 °C above the long-term
1961-1990 average because it was dominated by an extreme El Niņo.
Over the eight years, 2000-2007, since the Met Office has issued
forecasts of annual global temperature, the mean value of the forecast
error was just 0.07 °C.

The first Met Office decadal forecast to 2014 was issued in 2007.
Interannual variations of global surface temperature are strongly
affected by the warming influences of El Niņo events the cooling
influences of La Niņa events. The year 2007, with a provisionally
assessed temperature of 0.41 °C (above long-term average), was colder
than forecast. This was due to a much quicker than expected decline of
a moderate El Niņo that warms the climate, followed by the development
of the strong cooling influence of the current La Niņa.

The current La Niņa event is now the strongest since 1999-2000. The
lag between La Niņa and the full global surface temperature response
means that the cooling effect of La Niņa is expected to be a little
greater in 2008 than it was during 2007.