| Topic: |
Politics > Politics-USA |
| User: |
"Harry Hope" |
| Date: |
16 Sep 2005 09:41:19 AM |
| Object: |
Global warming past the point of no return |
From The Independent, 9/16/05:
http://news.independent.co.uk/world/science_technology/article312997.ece
Global warming 'past the point of no return'
By Steve Connor, Science Editor
A record loss of sea ice in the Arctic this summer has convinced
scientists that the northern hemisphere may have crossed a critical
threshold beyond which the climate may never recover.
Scientists fear that the Arctic has now entered an irreversible phase
of warming which will accelerate the loss of the polar sea ice that
has helped to keep the climate stable for thousands of years.
They believe global warming is melting Arctic ice so rapidly that the
region is beginning to absorb more heat from the sun, causing the ice
to melt still further and so reinforcing a vicious cycle of melting
and heating.
The greatest fear is that the Arctic has reached a "tipping point"
beyond which nothing can reverse the continual loss of sea ice and
with it the massive land glaciers of Greenland, which will raise sea
levels dramatically.
Satellites monitoring the Arctic have found that the extent of the sea
ice this August has reached its lowest monthly point on record,
dipping an unprecedented 18.2 per cent below the long-term average.
Experts believe that such a loss of Arctic sea ice in summer has not
occurred in hundreds and possibly thousands of years.
It is the fourth year in a row that the sea ice in August has fallen
below the monthly downward trend - a clear sign that melting has
accelerated.
Scientists are now preparing to report a record loss of Arctic sea ice
for September, when the surface area covered by the ice traditionally
reaches its minimum extent at the end of the summer melting period.
Sea ice naturally melts in summer and reforms in winter but for the
first time on record this annual rebound did not occur last winter
when the ice of the Arctic failed to recover significantly.
Arctic specialists at the US National Snow and Ice Data Centre at
Colorado University, who have documented the gradual loss of polar sea
ice since 1978, believe that a more dramatic melt began about four
years ago.
In September 2002 the sea ice coverage of the Arctic reached its
lowest level in recorded history.
Such lows have normally been followed the next year by a rebound to
more normal levels, but this did not occur in the summers of either
2003 or 2004.
This summer has been even worse.
The surface area covered by sea ice was at a record monthly minimum
for each of the summer months - June, July and now August.
Scientists analysing the latest satellite data for September - the
traditional minimum extent for each summer - are preparing to announce
a significant shift in the stability of the Arctic sea ice, the
northern hemisphere's major "heat sink" that moderates climatic
extremes.
"The changes we've seen in the Arctic over the past few decades are
nothing short of remarkable," said Mark Serreze, one of the scientists
at the Snow and Ice Data Centre who monitor Arctic sea ice.
Scientists at the data centre are bracing themselves for the 2005
annual minimum, which is expected to be reached in mid-September, when
another record loss is forecast.
A major announcement is scheduled for 20 September.
"It looks like we're going to exceed it or be real close one way or
the other. It is probably going to be at least as comparable to
September 2002," Dr Serreze said.
"This will be four Septembers in a row that we've seen a downward
trend. The feeling is we are reaching a tipping point or threshold
beyond which sea ice will not recover."
The extent of the sea ice in September is the most valuable indicator
of its health.
This year's record melt means that more of the long-term ice formed
over many winters - so called multi-year ice - has disappeared than at
any time in recorded history.
Sea ice floats on the surface of the Arctic Ocean and its neighbouring
seas and normally covers an area of some 7 million square kilometres
(2.4 million square miles) during September - about the size of
Australia.
However, in September 2002, this dwindled to about 2 million square
miles - 16 per cent below average.
Sea ice data for August closely mirrors that for September and last
month's record low - 18.2 per cent below the monthly average -
strongly suggests that this September will see the smallest coverage
of Arctic sea ice ever recorded.
As more and more sea ice is lost during the summer, greater expanses
of open ocean are exposed to the sun which increases the rate at which
heat is absorbed in the Arctic region, Dr Serreze said.
Sea ice reflects up to 80 per cent of sunlight hitting it but this
"albedo effect" is mostly lost when the sea is uncovered.
"We've exposed all this dark ocean to the sun's heat so that the
overall heat content increases," he explained.
Current computer models suggest that the Arctic will be entirely
ice-free during summer by the year 2070 but some scientists now
believe that even this dire prediction may be over-optimistic, said
Professor Peter Wadhams, an Arctic ice specialist at Cambridge
University.
"When the ice becomes so thin it breaks up mechanically rather than
thermodynamically. So these predictions may well be on the
over-optimistic side," he said.
As the sea ice melts, and more of the sun's energy is absorbed by the
exposed ocean, a positive feedback is created leading to the loss of
yet more ice, Professor Wadhams said.
"If anything we may be underestimating the dangers. The computer
models may not take into account collaborative positive feedback," he
said.
Sea ice keeps a cap on frigid water, keeping it cold and protecting it
from heating up.
Losing the sea ice of the Arctic is likely to have major repercussions
for the climate, he said.
"There could be dramatic changes to the climate of the northern region
due to the creation of a vast expanse of open water where there was
once effectively land," Professor Wadhams said.
"You're essentially changing land into ocean and the creation of a
huge area of open ocean where there was once land will have a very big
impact on other climate parameters," he said.
___________________________________________________________
Harry
.
|
|
| User: "bj" |
|
| Title: Re: Global warming past the point of no return |
16 Sep 2005 02:26:00 PM |
|
|
Blair runs away from Kyota.
Another blow to world Communists!
"Harry Hope" <rivrvu@ix.netcom.com> wrote in message
news:5cmli11hnetpa00t59lah5ftsto5k2dg1g@4ax.com...
From The Independent, 9/16/05:
http://news.independent.co.uk/world/science_technology/article312997.ece
Global warming 'past the point of no return'
By Steve Connor, Science Editor
A record loss of sea ice in the Arctic this summer has convinced
scientists that the northern hemisphere may have crossed a critical
threshold beyond which the climate may never recover.
Scientists fear that the Arctic has now entered an irreversible phase
of warming which will accelerate the loss of the polar sea ice that
has helped to keep the climate stable for thousands of years.
They believe global warming is melting Arctic ice so rapidly that the
region is beginning to absorb more heat from the sun, causing the ice
to melt still further and so reinforcing a vicious cycle of melting
and heating.
The greatest fear is that the Arctic has reached a "tipping point"
beyond which nothing can reverse the continual loss of sea ice and
with it the massive land glaciers of Greenland, which will raise sea
levels dramatically.
Satellites monitoring the Arctic have found that the extent of the sea
ice this August has reached its lowest monthly point on record,
dipping an unprecedented 18.2 per cent below the long-term average.
Experts believe that such a loss of Arctic sea ice in summer has not
occurred in hundreds and possibly thousands of years.
It is the fourth year in a row that the sea ice in August has fallen
below the monthly downward trend - a clear sign that melting has
accelerated.
Scientists are now preparing to report a record loss of Arctic sea ice
for September, when the surface area covered by the ice traditionally
reaches its minimum extent at the end of the summer melting period.
Sea ice naturally melts in summer and reforms in winter but for the
first time on record this annual rebound did not occur last winter
when the ice of the Arctic failed to recover significantly.
Arctic specialists at the US National Snow and Ice Data Centre at
Colorado University, who have documented the gradual loss of polar sea
ice since 1978, believe that a more dramatic melt began about four
years ago.
In September 2002 the sea ice coverage of the Arctic reached its
lowest level in recorded history.
Such lows have normally been followed the next year by a rebound to
more normal levels, but this did not occur in the summers of either
2003 or 2004.
This summer has been even worse.
The surface area covered by sea ice was at a record monthly minimum
for each of the summer months - June, July and now August.
Scientists analysing the latest satellite data for September - the
traditional minimum extent for each summer - are preparing to announce
a significant shift in the stability of the Arctic sea ice, the
northern hemisphere's major "heat sink" that moderates climatic
extremes.
"The changes we've seen in the Arctic over the past few decades are
nothing short of remarkable," said Mark Serreze, one of the scientists
at the Snow and Ice Data Centre who monitor Arctic sea ice.
Scientists at the data centre are bracing themselves for the 2005
annual minimum, which is expected to be reached in mid-September, when
another record loss is forecast.
A major announcement is scheduled for 20 September.
"It looks like we're going to exceed it or be real close one way or
the other. It is probably going to be at least as comparable to
September 2002," Dr Serreze said.
"This will be four Septembers in a row that we've seen a downward
trend. The feeling is we are reaching a tipping point or threshold
beyond which sea ice will not recover."
The extent of the sea ice in September is the most valuable indicator
of its health.
This year's record melt means that more of the long-term ice formed
over many winters - so called multi-year ice - has disappeared than at
any time in recorded history.
Sea ice floats on the surface of the Arctic Ocean and its neighbouring
seas and normally covers an area of some 7 million square kilometres
(2.4 million square miles) during September - about the size of
Australia.
However, in September 2002, this dwindled to about 2 million square
miles - 16 per cent below average.
Sea ice data for August closely mirrors that for September and last
month's record low - 18.2 per cent below the monthly average -
strongly suggests that this September will see the smallest coverage
of Arctic sea ice ever recorded.
As more and more sea ice is lost during the summer, greater expanses
of open ocean are exposed to the sun which increases the rate at which
heat is absorbed in the Arctic region, Dr Serreze said.
Sea ice reflects up to 80 per cent of sunlight hitting it but this
"albedo effect" is mostly lost when the sea is uncovered.
"We've exposed all this dark ocean to the sun's heat so that the
overall heat content increases," he explained.
Current computer models suggest that the Arctic will be entirely
ice-free during summer by the year 2070 but some scientists now
believe that even this dire prediction may be over-optimistic, said
Professor Peter Wadhams, an Arctic ice specialist at Cambridge
University.
"When the ice becomes so thin it breaks up mechanically rather than
thermodynamically. So these predictions may well be on the
over-optimistic side," he said.
As the sea ice melts, and more of the sun's energy is absorbed by the
exposed ocean, a positive feedback is created leading to the loss of
yet more ice, Professor Wadhams said.
"If anything we may be underestimating the dangers. The computer
models may not take into account collaborative positive feedback," he
said.
Sea ice keeps a cap on frigid water, keeping it cold and protecting it
from heating up.
Losing the sea ice of the Arctic is likely to have major repercussions
for the climate, he said.
"There could be dramatic changes to the climate of the northern region
due to the creation of a vast expanse of open water where there was
once effectively land," Professor Wadhams said.
"You're essentially changing land into ocean and the creation of a
huge area of open ocean where there was once land will have a very big
impact on other climate parameters," he said.
___________________________________________________________
Harry
.
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|
| User: "Tom B. Stone" |
|
| Title: Wait until next year's hurricane season! |
16 Sep 2005 12:25:10 PM |
|
|
Harry Hope <rivrvu@ix.netcom.com> wrote in
news:5cmli11hnetpa00t59lah5ftsto5k2dg1g@4ax.com:
From The Independent, 9/16/05:
http://news.independent.co.uk/world/science_technology/article312997.ec
e
Global warming 'past the point of no return'
By Steve Connor, Science Editor
A record loss of sea ice in the Arctic this summer has convinced
scientists that the northern hemisphere may have crossed a critical
threshold beyond which the climate may never recover.
Scientists fear that the Arctic has now entered an irreversible phase
of warming which will accelerate the loss of the polar sea ice that
has helped to keep the climate stable for thousands of years.
They believe global warming is melting Arctic ice so rapidly that the
region is beginning to absorb more heat from the sun, causing the ice
to melt still further and so reinforcing a vicious cycle of melting
and heating.
The greatest fear is that the Arctic has reached a "tipping point"
beyond which nothing can reverse the continual loss of sea ice and
with it the massive land glaciers of Greenland, which will raise sea
levels dramatically.
Satellites monitoring the Arctic have found that the extent of the sea
ice this August has reached its lowest monthly point on record,
dipping an unprecedented 18.2 per cent below the long-term average.
Experts believe that such a loss of Arctic sea ice in summer has not
occurred in hundreds and possibly thousands of years.
It is the fourth year in a row that the sea ice in August has fallen
below the monthly downward trend - a clear sign that melting has
accelerated.
Scientists are now preparing to report a record loss of Arctic sea ice
for September, when the surface area covered by the ice traditionally
reaches its minimum extent at the end of the summer melting period.
Sea ice naturally melts in summer and reforms in winter but for the
first time on record this annual rebound did not occur last winter
when the ice of the Arctic failed to recover significantly.
Arctic specialists at the US National Snow and Ice Data Centre at
Colorado University, who have documented the gradual loss of polar sea
ice since 1978, believe that a more dramatic melt began about four
years ago.
In September 2002 the sea ice coverage of the Arctic reached its
lowest level in recorded history.
Such lows have normally been followed the next year by a rebound to
more normal levels, but this did not occur in the summers of either
2003 or 2004.
This summer has been even worse.
The surface area covered by sea ice was at a record monthly minimum
for each of the summer months - June, July and now August.
Scientists analysing the latest satellite data for September - the
traditional minimum extent for each summer - are preparing to announce
a significant shift in the stability of the Arctic sea ice, the
northern hemisphere's major "heat sink" that moderates climatic
extremes.
"The changes we've seen in the Arctic over the past few decades are
nothing short of remarkable," said Mark Serreze, one of the scientists
at the Snow and Ice Data Centre who monitor Arctic sea ice.
Scientists at the data centre are bracing themselves for the 2005
annual minimum, which is expected to be reached in mid-September, when
another record loss is forecast.
A major announcement is scheduled for 20 September.
"It looks like we're going to exceed it or be real close one way or
the other. It is probably going to be at least as comparable to
September 2002," Dr Serreze said.
"This will be four Septembers in a row that we've seen a downward
trend. The feeling is we are reaching a tipping point or threshold
beyond which sea ice will not recover."
The extent of the sea ice in September is the most valuable indicator
of its health.
This year's record melt means that more of the long-term ice formed
over many winters - so called multi-year ice - has disappeared than at
any time in recorded history.
Sea ice floats on the surface of the Arctic Ocean and its neighbouring
seas and normally covers an area of some 7 million square kilometres
(2.4 million square miles) during September - about the size of
Australia.
However, in September 2002, this dwindled to about 2 million square
miles - 16 per cent below average.
Sea ice data for August closely mirrors that for September and last
month's record low - 18.2 per cent below the monthly average -
strongly suggests that this September will see the smallest coverage
of Arctic sea ice ever recorded.
As more and more sea ice is lost during the summer, greater expanses
of open ocean are exposed to the sun which increases the rate at which
heat is absorbed in the Arctic region, Dr Serreze said.
Sea ice reflects up to 80 per cent of sunlight hitting it but this
"albedo effect" is mostly lost when the sea is uncovered.
"We've exposed all this dark ocean to the sun's heat so that the
overall heat content increases," he explained.
Current computer models suggest that the Arctic will be entirely
ice-free during summer by the year 2070 but some scientists now
believe that even this dire prediction may be over-optimistic, said
Professor Peter Wadhams, an Arctic ice specialist at Cambridge
University.
"When the ice becomes so thin it breaks up mechanically rather than
thermodynamically. So these predictions may well be on the
over-optimistic side," he said.
As the sea ice melts, and more of the sun's energy is absorbed by the
exposed ocean, a positive feedback is created leading to the loss of
yet more ice, Professor Wadhams said.
"If anything we may be underestimating the dangers. The computer
models may not take into account collaborative positive feedback," he
said.
Sea ice keeps a cap on frigid water, keeping it cold and protecting it
from heating up.
Losing the sea ice of the Arctic is likely to have major repercussions
for the climate, he said.
"There could be dramatic changes to the climate of the northern region
due to the creation of a vast expanse of open water where there was
once effectively land," Professor Wadhams said.
"You're essentially changing land into ocean and the creation of a
huge area of open ocean where there was once land will have a very big
impact on other climate parameters," he said.
___________________________________________________________
Harry
Be interesting to see how far along the "reconstruction" effort is by
this time next year when the potential for another equally devastating
storm could pummel the same area all over again. Then again, they could
even get another one this year. The season doesn't end for two plus
months yet. Those who are under thiry years of age are in for a real
ride!
.
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| User: "Bill Habr" |
|
| Title: Re: Global warming past the point of no return |
16 Sep 2005 12:45:36 PM |
|
|
How many glaciations and interglacial periods has the earth had in the last
500000 years?
What is the average length of the glaciations and of the interglacial
periods?
When did the last glaciation end?
How many periods of warmer than current average temperatures has the earth
had since the last glaciation?
What was the warmest period since the last glaciation and how much was it
warmer than present?
"Harry Hope" <rivrvu@ix.netcom.com> wrote in message
news:5cmli11hnetpa00t59lah5ftsto5k2dg1g@4ax.com...
From The Independent, 9/16/05:
http://news.independent.co.uk/world/science_technology/article312997.ece
Global warming 'past the point of no return'
By Steve Connor, Science Editor
A record loss of sea ice in the Arctic this summer has convinced
scientists that the northern hemisphere may have crossed a critical
threshold beyond which the climate may never recover.
Scientists fear that the Arctic has now entered an irreversible phase
of warming which will accelerate the loss of the polar sea ice that
has helped to keep the climate stable for thousands of years.
They believe global warming is melting Arctic ice so rapidly that the
region is beginning to absorb more heat from the sun, causing the ice
to melt still further and so reinforcing a vicious cycle of melting
and heating.
The greatest fear is that the Arctic has reached a "tipping point"
beyond which nothing can reverse the continual loss of sea ice and
with it the massive land glaciers of Greenland, which will raise sea
levels dramatically.
Satellites monitoring the Arctic have found that the extent of the sea
ice this August has reached its lowest monthly point on record,
dipping an unprecedented 18.2 per cent below the long-term average.
Experts believe that such a loss of Arctic sea ice in summer has not
occurred in hundreds and possibly thousands of years.
It is the fourth year in a row that the sea ice in August has fallen
below the monthly downward trend - a clear sign that melting has
accelerated.
Scientists are now preparing to report a record loss of Arctic sea ice
for September, when the surface area covered by the ice traditionally
reaches its minimum extent at the end of the summer melting period.
Sea ice naturally melts in summer and reforms in winter but for the
first time on record this annual rebound did not occur last winter
when the ice of the Arctic failed to recover significantly.
Arctic specialists at the US National Snow and Ice Data Centre at
Colorado University, who have documented the gradual loss of polar sea
ice since 1978, believe that a more dramatic melt began about four
years ago.
In September 2002 the sea ice coverage of the Arctic reached its
lowest level in recorded history.
Such lows have normally been followed the next year by a rebound to
more normal levels, but this did not occur in the summers of either
2003 or 2004.
This summer has been even worse.
The surface area covered by sea ice was at a record monthly minimum
for each of the summer months - June, July and now August.
Scientists analysing the latest satellite data for September - the
traditional minimum extent for each summer - are preparing to announce
a significant shift in the stability of the Arctic sea ice, the
northern hemisphere's major "heat sink" that moderates climatic
extremes.
"The changes we've seen in the Arctic over the past few decades are
nothing short of remarkable," said Mark Serreze, one of the scientists
at the Snow and Ice Data Centre who monitor Arctic sea ice.
Scientists at the data centre are bracing themselves for the 2005
annual minimum, which is expected to be reached in mid-September, when
another record loss is forecast.
A major announcement is scheduled for 20 September.
"It looks like we're going to exceed it or be real close one way or
the other. It is probably going to be at least as comparable to
September 2002," Dr Serreze said.
"This will be four Septembers in a row that we've seen a downward
trend. The feeling is we are reaching a tipping point or threshold
beyond which sea ice will not recover."
The extent of the sea ice in September is the most valuable indicator
of its health.
This year's record melt means that more of the long-term ice formed
over many winters - so called multi-year ice - has disappeared than at
any time in recorded history.
Sea ice floats on the surface of the Arctic Ocean and its neighbouring
seas and normally covers an area of some 7 million square kilometres
(2.4 million square miles) during September - about the size of
Australia.
However, in September 2002, this dwindled to about 2 million square
miles - 16 per cent below average.
Sea ice data for August closely mirrors that for September and last
month's record low - 18.2 per cent below the monthly average -
strongly suggests that this September will see the smallest coverage
of Arctic sea ice ever recorded.
As more and more sea ice is lost during the summer, greater expanses
of open ocean are exposed to the sun which increases the rate at which
heat is absorbed in the Arctic region, Dr Serreze said.
Sea ice reflects up to 80 per cent of sunlight hitting it but this
"albedo effect" is mostly lost when the sea is uncovered.
"We've exposed all this dark ocean to the sun's heat so that the
overall heat content increases," he explained.
Current computer models suggest that the Arctic will be entirely
ice-free during summer by the year 2070 but some scientists now
believe that even this dire prediction may be over-optimistic, said
Professor Peter Wadhams, an Arctic ice specialist at Cambridge
University.
"When the ice becomes so thin it breaks up mechanically rather than
thermodynamically. So these predictions may well be on the
over-optimistic side," he said.
As the sea ice melts, and more of the sun's energy is absorbed by the
exposed ocean, a positive feedback is created leading to the loss of
yet more ice, Professor Wadhams said.
"If anything we may be underestimating the dangers. The computer
models may not take into account collaborative positive feedback," he
said.
Sea ice keeps a cap on frigid water, keeping it cold and protecting it
from heating up.
Losing the sea ice of the Arctic is likely to have major repercussions
for the climate, he said.
"There could be dramatic changes to the climate of the northern region
due to the creation of a vast expanse of open water where there was
once effectively land," Professor Wadhams said.
"You're essentially changing land into ocean and the creation of a
huge area of open ocean where there was once land will have a very big
impact on other climate parameters," he said.
___________________________________________________________
Harry
.
|
|
|
| User: "" |
|
| Title: Re: Global warming past the point of no return |
16 Sep 2005 11:07:12 PM |
|
|
When was the last time the CO2 levels were as high as they are right now?
Something like 80 million years ago.
"Bill Habr" <billhabr@sbcglobal.net> wrote in message
news:4xDWe.1332$Jm.125@newssvr27.news.prodigy.net...
How many glaciations and interglacial periods has the earth had in the
last
500000 years?
What is the average length of the glaciations and of the interglacial
periods?
When did the last glaciation end?
How many periods of warmer than current average temperatures has the earth
had since the last glaciation?
What was the warmest period since the last glaciation and how much was it
warmer than present?
"Harry Hope" <rivrvu@ix.netcom.com> wrote in message
news:5cmli11hnetpa00t59lah5ftsto5k2dg1g@4ax.com...
From The Independent, 9/16/05:
http://news.independent.co.uk/world/science_technology/article312997.ece
Global warming 'past the point of no return'
By Steve Connor, Science Editor
A record loss of sea ice in the Arctic this summer has convinced
scientists that the northern hemisphere may have crossed a critical
threshold beyond which the climate may never recover.
Scientists fear that the Arctic has now entered an irreversible phase
of warming which will accelerate the loss of the polar sea ice that
has helped to keep the climate stable for thousands of years.
They believe global warming is melting Arctic ice so rapidly that the
region is beginning to absorb more heat from the sun, causing the ice
to melt still further and so reinforcing a vicious cycle of melting
and heating.
The greatest fear is that the Arctic has reached a "tipping point"
beyond which nothing can reverse the continual loss of sea ice and
with it the massive land glaciers of Greenland, which will raise sea
levels dramatically.
Satellites monitoring the Arctic have found that the extent of the sea
ice this August has reached its lowest monthly point on record,
dipping an unprecedented 18.2 per cent below the long-term average.
Experts believe that such a loss of Arctic sea ice in summer has not
occurred in hundreds and possibly thousands of years.
It is the fourth year in a row that the sea ice in August has fallen
below the monthly downward trend - a clear sign that melting has
accelerated.
Scientists are now preparing to report a record loss of Arctic sea ice
for September, when the surface area covered by the ice traditionally
reaches its minimum extent at the end of the summer melting period.
Sea ice naturally melts in summer and reforms in winter but for the
first time on record this annual rebound did not occur last winter
when the ice of the Arctic failed to recover significantly.
Arctic specialists at the US National Snow and Ice Data Centre at
Colorado University, who have documented the gradual loss of polar sea
ice since 1978, believe that a more dramatic melt began about four
years ago.
In September 2002 the sea ice coverage of the Arctic reached its
lowest level in recorded history.
Such lows have normally been followed the next year by a rebound to
more normal levels, but this did not occur in the summers of either
2003 or 2004.
This summer has been even worse.
The surface area covered by sea ice was at a record monthly minimum
for each of the summer months - June, July and now August.
Scientists analysing the latest satellite data for September - the
traditional minimum extent for each summer - are preparing to announce
a significant shift in the stability of the Arctic sea ice, the
northern hemisphere's major "heat sink" that moderates climatic
extremes.
"The changes we've seen in the Arctic over the past few decades are
nothing short of remarkable," said Mark Serreze, one of the scientists
at the Snow and Ice Data Centre who monitor Arctic sea ice.
Scientists at the data centre are bracing themselves for the 2005
annual minimum, which is expected to be reached in mid-September, when
another record loss is forecast.
A major announcement is scheduled for 20 September.
"It looks like we're going to exceed it or be real close one way or
the other. It is probably going to be at least as comparable to
September 2002," Dr Serreze said.
"This will be four Septembers in a row that we've seen a downward
trend. The feeling is we are reaching a tipping point or threshold
beyond which sea ice will not recover."
The extent of the sea ice in September is the most valuable indicator
of its health.
This year's record melt means that more of the long-term ice formed
over many winters - so called multi-year ice - has disappeared than at
any time in recorded history.
Sea ice floats on the surface of the Arctic Ocean and its neighbouring
seas and normally covers an area of some 7 million square kilometres
(2.4 million square miles) during September - about the size of
Australia.
However, in September 2002, this dwindled to about 2 million square
miles - 16 per cent below average.
Sea ice data for August closely mirrors that for September and last
month's record low - 18.2 per cent below the monthly average -
strongly suggests that this September will see the smallest coverage
of Arctic sea ice ever recorded.
As more and more sea ice is lost during the summer, greater expanses
of open ocean are exposed to the sun which increases the rate at which
heat is absorbed in the Arctic region, Dr Serreze said.
Sea ice reflects up to 80 per cent of sunlight hitting it but this
"albedo effect" is mostly lost when the sea is uncovered.
"We've exposed all this dark ocean to the sun's heat so that the
overall heat content increases," he explained.
Current computer models suggest that the Arctic will be entirely
ice-free during summer by the year 2070 but some scientists now
believe that even this dire prediction may be over-optimistic, said
Professor Peter Wadhams, an Arctic ice specialist at Cambridge
University.
"When the ice becomes so thin it breaks up mechanically rather than
thermodynamically. So these predictions may well be on the
over-optimistic side," he said.
As the sea ice melts, and more of the sun's energy is absorbed by the
exposed ocean, a positive feedback is created leading to the loss of
yet more ice, Professor Wadhams said.
"If anything we may be underestimating the dangers. The computer
models may not take into account collaborative positive feedback," he
said.
Sea ice keeps a cap on frigid water, keeping it cold and protecting it
from heating up.
Losing the sea ice of the Arctic is likely to have major repercussions
for the climate, he said.
"There could be dramatic changes to the climate of the northern region
due to the creation of a vast expanse of open water where there was
once effectively land," Professor Wadhams said.
"You're essentially changing land into ocean and the creation of a
huge area of open ocean where there was once land will have a very big
impact on other climate parameters," he said.
___________________________________________________________
Harry
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| User: "Chuck Feney" |
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| Title: Re: Global warming past the point of no return |
18 Sep 2005 07:42:16 AM |
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I am pleased to add to this thread that the renowned climatologist,
Charles Krauthammer has informed us that "there is no relationship
between global warming and the frequency and intensity of Atlantic
hurricanes. Period."
Thus, now we know that warming oceans do not contribute to hurricane
strength.
Thank you Herr Krauthammer, for correcting all those misinformed
meteorologists. Can't wait for your next scientific oped piece.
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| User: "Bill Habr" |
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| Title: Re: Global warming past the point of no return |
18 Sep 2005 08:08:25 AM |
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(1) The Atlantic Ocean goes through cycles that increase and decrease the
number of hurricanes each season and the intensity of those hurricanes.
And
(2) Those cycles have not been studied outside a period of global warming.
"Chuck Feney" <iron.heart@D'Fibrillator> wrote in message
news:hmnqi1h4mrktioo17fuj05r4a63434v0ha@4ax.com...
I am pleased to add to this thread that the renowned climatologist,
Charles Krauthammer has informed us that "there is no relationship
between global warming and the frequency and intensity of Atlantic
hurricanes. Period."
Thus, now we know that warming oceans do not contribute to hurricane
strength.
Thank you Herr Krauthammer, for correcting all those misinformed
meteorologists. Can't wait for your next scientific oped piece.
.
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| User: "Larry Hewitt" |
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| Title: Re: Global warming past the point of no return |
18 Sep 2005 01:02:25 PM |
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"Bill Habr" <billhabr@sbcglobal.net> wrote in message
news:dFdXe.9$xc4.5@newssvr13.news.prodigy.com...
(1) The Atlantic Ocean goes through cycles that increase and decrease the
number of hurricanes each season and the intensity of those hurricanes.
And
(2) Those cycles have not been studied outside a period of global
warming.
Cop out.
Warming in parts of the South Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico has reached
historis highs.
Variation in ocean temoeratures has reached historic highs.
Climate models are working, and they can extrapolate beyond recent history.
You adocate the head in the sand approach that has lead to to the topic of
this thread --- waiting until it is too late to fix the problem.
Larry
"Chuck Feney" <iron.heart@D'Fibrillator> wrote in message
news:hmnqi1h4mrktioo17fuj05r4a63434v0ha@4ax.com...
I am pleased to add to this thread that the renowned climatologist,
Charles Krauthammer has informed us that "there is no relationship
between global warming and the frequency and intensity of Atlantic
hurricanes. Period."
Thus, now we know that warming oceans do not contribute to hurricane
strength.
Thank you Herr Krauthammer, for correcting all those misinformed
meteorologists. Can't wait for your next scientific oped piece.
.
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| User: "Bill Habr" |
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| Title: Re: Global warming past the point of no return |
18 Sep 2005 01:24:41 PM |
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"Larry Hewitt" <larryhewi@comporium.net> wrote in message
news:dgka87$24ms$1@news3.infoave.net...
Warming in parts of the South Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico has reached
historis highs.
Reference?
Historic highs ? What about prehistoric temperatures?
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| User: "Larry Hewitt" |
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| Title: Re: Global warming past the point of no return |
18 Sep 2005 02:00:40 PM |
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"Bill Habr" <billhabr@sbcglobal.net> wrote in message
news:JhiXe.89$Ur.45@newssvr29.news.prodigy.net...
"Larry Hewitt" <larryhewi@comporium.net> wrote in message
news:dgka87$24ms$1@news3.infoave.net...
Warming in parts of the South Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico has reached
historis highs.
Reference?
Historic highs ? What about prehistoric temperatures?
More of the cop out.
Deny deny deny while the climate goes ti heck.
You can bring up meaningless diversions forever.
What hapenes 2.5 mmillion years ago is meaningless. What happenes 10,000
years ago is meaningless. What is haopening now is important.
The world has cahnged since your prehistoric times, both geographically and
biologically.
The point of all of this is that the rate of change is accelerating rapidly.
And the influence of man is the rason.
Rightards seem to think in steady state terms. Donlt work. Indications that
we are at or over the tipping point are abundant. But rightards keep
deleting the articles so noone can keep up and then divert attention with
meaningless diversions.
To repeat what this post was originally about: here is a record loss of sea
ice in the Arctic. The loss is not seasonal, but annual.
There are other indications, too. The loss of Antarctic ice appears to be
accelerating.
The loss of tundra in the Canada and Alaska is accelerating. This is a
perfect object lesson for the tipping point theory.
Inf ar northern latitudes dead vegetation historiclly dod not decompose ---
it was buried in froxen tundra and eventually turned into peat. But warming
in these regions has shortened the period of below freezing tenepeatures.
This has 2 effects. First, some current vegetation is actually decomposing
rather than becoming tundra, adding carbon to the atmosphere. Of more
concern is hte fct tht peat is sarting to decompose. So instead of being a
carbon sink areas of arctic tundra are now a carbon source. And as
temperatures rise the generation of carbon will increase, leading to rising
temperatures and more carbon and ...
The loss is visible in satellite photos: streams in Alaska, f.ex, are
remaining ice free and are actually wideing, taking ot more tundra.
Your attitude is exactly like that of some of hte old peope I work with.
They refuse to acjnowledge that their blood pressure is a little high or
their colesterol level is a little over the top and refuse to adjust their
lifestyle until the heart attack hits. Unfortunately we bury a lot of them.
Larry
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| User: "Bill Habr" |
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| Title: Re: Global warming past the point of no return |
18 Sep 2005 02:15:04 PM |
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"Larry Hewitt" <larryhewi@comporium.net> wrote in message
news:dgkdlf$272d$1@news3.infoave.net...
"Bill Habr" <billhabr@sbcglobal.net> wrote in message
news:JhiXe.89$Ur.45@newssvr29.news.prodigy.net...
"Larry Hewitt" <larryhewi@comporium.net> wrote in message
news:dgka87$24ms$1@news3.infoave.net...
Warming in parts of the South Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico has reached
historis highs.
Reference?
Historic highs ? What about prehistoric temperatures?
More of the cop out.
Deny deny deny while the climate goes ti heck.
You can bring up meaningless diversions forever.
What hapenes 2.5 mmillion years ago is meaningless. What happenes 10,000
years ago is meaningless. What is haopening now is important.
The world has cahnged since your prehistoric times, both geographically
and
biologically.
The point of all of this is that the rate of change is accelerating
rapidly.
And the influence of man is the rason.
Rightards seem to think in steady state terms. Donlt work. Indications
that
we are at or over the tipping point are abundant. But rightards keep
deleting the articles so noone can keep up and then divert attention with
meaningless diversions.
To repeat what this post was originally about: here is a record loss of
sea
ice in the Arctic. The loss is not seasonal, but annual.
There are other indications, too. The loss of Antarctic ice appears to be
accelerating.
The loss of tundra in the Canada and Alaska is accelerating. This is a
perfect object lesson for the tipping point theory.
Inf ar northern latitudes dead vegetation historiclly dod not
decompose ---
it was buried in froxen tundra and eventually turned into peat. But
warming
in these regions has shortened the period of below freezing tenepeatures.
This has 2 effects. First, some current vegetation is actually decomposing
rather than becoming tundra, adding carbon to the atmosphere. Of more
concern is hte fct tht peat is sarting to decompose. So instead of being a
carbon sink areas of arctic tundra are now a carbon source. And as
temperatures rise the generation of carbon will increase, leading to
rising
temperatures and more carbon and ...
The loss is visible in satellite photos: streams in Alaska, f.ex, are
remaining ice free and are actually wideing, taking ot more tundra.
Your attitude is exactly like that of some of hte old peope I work with.
They refuse to acjnowledge that their blood pressure is a little high or
their colesterol level is a little over the top and refuse to adjust their
lifestyle until the heart attack hits. Unfortunately we bury a lot of
them.
Larry
Look, stupid, the maximum of the last glaciation was about 18000 years ago.
The ice sheets have been slowly melting since then and they will continue to
do so until the earth cools again. Since you don't (or won't) understand
that global climate changes happen on longer than the time scales you choose
to look at you discredit science. The earth is in an interglaical period and
it is very early in that period.
If you want to change policy quit being a Chicken Little.
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