From USA TODAY, 8/31/06:
http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2006-08-31-midterm-elections_x.htm?csp=34
GOP lags in key races for Senate
By Susan Page and Jill Lawrence, USA TODAY
As the Labor Day weekend launches a final nine weeks of campaigning,
USA TODAY/Gallup Polls in five key states show Democrats poised to
gain Senate seats but facing an uphill battle to regain control.
Democrats seem more likely to carry the House in the Nov. 7 elections,
which are being shaped by voters' unease over Iraq, jobs and health
care and a sense that the nation is on the wrong track.
"The environment for the majority party is extremely bad," says
political scientist David Rohde of Duke University.
"There's certainly plenty of time for things to be shaken up ... (but)
it would take something really huge" to turn around GOP fortunes.
In the House, the number of seats independent analysts rate as up for
grabs has been swelling.
Since January, Stuart Rothenberg of the non-partisan Rothenberg
Political Report has doubled the number ranked "most competitive."
Of 39 seats now in that category, 35 are held by Republicans.
He predicts Democrats will pick up the 15 seats they need to control
the House.
In the Senate, Democrats need to gain six seats, which would require
winning at least two races where Republicans are now favored.
The statewide polls found some GOP senators already in trouble:
----- In Pennsylvania, Sen. Rick Santorum trailed Democrat Bob Casey
by 18 percentage points among likely voters, by 14 points among
registered voters.
----- In Ohio, Sen. Mike DeWine was behind Democrat Sherrod Brown by 6
points among likely voters, by 2 points among registered voters.
----- In Montana, three-term Sen. Conrad Burns, who has faced
questions in the Jack Abramoff lobbying scandal, was in a close race
with Democrat Jon Tester. Tester led by 3 points among likely voters;
Burns led by 2 points among registered voters.
----- In Missouri, Sen. Jim Talent held a 6-point lead among likely
voters over Democrat Claire McCaskill. The two were tied among
registered voters.
----- In Minnesota, where Republicans hope to pick up an open seat,
Democrat Amy Klobuchar led Republican Mark Kennedy by 10 points among
likely voters, by 7 points among registered voters.
The state's gubernatorial race was almost even:
GOP incumbent Tim Pawlenty trailed Democrat Mike Hatch by a single
point among likely voters but led him by 4 points among registered
voters.
In other gubernatorial contests, two African-American candidates
nominated by the GOP trailed by overwhelming margins.
Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell, a Democrat, held a 22-point lead among
likely voters over Republican Lynn Swann.
In Ohio, Democrat Ted Strickland led Republican Ken Blackwell by 16
points.
Nine of 10 African-American voters were backing Rendell; six of 10
were backing Strickland.
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Not the way Republicans had hoped to begin their Labor Day weekends,
I'm afraid.
Harry
.
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