From Reuters, 11/1/06:
http://rawstory.com/showarticle.php?src=http%3A%2F%2Ftoday.reuters.com%2Fmisc%2FPrinterFriendlyPopup.aspx%3Ftype%3DpoliticsNews%26storyID%3D2006-11-01T125110Z_01_N31248778_RTRUKOC_0_US-USA-ELECTIONS-POLL.xml
House control in range for Democrats: Reuters poll
By John Whitesides, Political Correspondent
WASHINGTON (Reuters) -
Democrats are ahead in races for 12 of 15 key Republican-held seats in
the U.S. House one week before the November 7 elections, placing them
within striking range of winning control of the chamber, according to
Reuters/Zogby polls released on Wednesday.
Five Democrats had comfortable double-digit leads in the battle for
the Congress, with just one Republican, Michele Bachmann in Minnesota,
holding a double-digit advantage.
Seven of nine Republican incumbents trailed Democratic challengers in
the polls, and Republicans were behind in five of six open
Republican-held districts.
Democrats must pick up 15 seats to reclaim control of the House of
Representatives, and the polls found Republicans struggling to avoid
being swept from power for the first time since 1994.
Since the last round of Reuters/Zogby polls in early October, when
Democrats led 11 of the 15 races, Democrats improved their standing in
nine districts and Republicans gained ground in six.
Three districts switched leaders, with two Democrats, Ken Lucas in
Kentucky and Bruce Braley in Iowa, and one Republican, Rep. Thelma
Drake of Virginia, moving into the lead after trailing in October.
"Democrats are getting very close to that magic number of 15,"
pollster John Zogby said.
"Republicans are really on the ropes."
The polls were taken between October 24 and October 29 in 15 of the
most competitive House districts across the country.
The surveys of at least 500 likely voters had a margin of error of
plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.
Democrats have surged in opinion polls around the country this year,
propelled by growing voter disillusionment with the Iraq war,
President George W. Bush and the Republican-led Congress.
The new polls found six Republican incumbents received support from
fewer than 40 percent of voters who were asked if they deserved
re-election, a very low level that is a danger sign for an incumbent.
The other three Republican incumbents, Reps. Rob Simmons in
Connecticut, Drake in Virginia and Heather Wilson in New Mexico, were
in the low 40s on the re-election question.
DEMOCRATS WELL POSITIONED
The Democratic leads in 12 of the districts polled puts them in
position for a big win next week.
Another three dozen House races are considered competitive, and
Democrats are favored in several districts not even polled.
Those include the Florida district of Republican Rep. Mark Foley, who
resigned in disgrace in a scandal over his lewd messages to teenage
male congressional assistants, the Texas district of former Rep. Tom
DeLay and the Pennsylvania district of Rep. Don Sherwood, who suffered
his own sex scandal last year.
"The numbers are starting to work against Republicans," Zogby said.
Just two Republican incumbents, Simmons and Drake, were ahead in their
races.
Republican Rep. Geoff Davis of Kentucky, who led Democrat Ken Lucas
last month, trailed this time by 3 percentage points, within the
margin of error.
Other trailing Republican incumbents were Rep. Christopher Shays of
Connecticut, behind Democrat Dianne Farrell 51 percent to 44 percent;
Rep. Jim Gerlach of Pennsylvania, who trailed Democrat Lois Murphy by
49 percent to 44 percent; Rep. Chris Chocola of Indiana, behind
Democrat Joe Donnelly 52 percent to 39 percent, and Rep. Mike Sodrel,
who trailed Democrat Baron Hill 48 percent to 46 percent.
Republican Rep. Charles Taylor of North Carolina closed the gap on
Democrat Heath Shuler but still trailed by 48 percent to 43 percent,
while Wilson in New Mexico was behind Democrat Patricia Madrid 53
percent to 44 percent.
In open seats, Bachmann in Minnesota led Democrat Patty Wetterling by
52 percent to 42 percent, but Democrats led in the five other open
House seats polled.
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8 days to go.
Harry
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