Although polls say otherwise, George W. Bush remains the underdog in this
election. Both demographics and history suggest the president's lead is
perilous. Providing countervailing numbers to the opinion polls are the
largest
loss of jobs since Herbert Hoover's presidency and rising casualties in Iraq.

But by Nov. 2, Bush must convince Floridians that he truly is a compassionate
conservative who has improved the environment and provided better health
care.
He must make Ohioans forget that their state has lost a quarter-million jobs
and convince Buckeyes that he is a hero of the downsized and champion of the
outsourced.

Why Bush is teetering
Despite his lead in the opinion polls, history and demographics suggest the
president could wind up a loser in November

Martin F. Nolan Sunday, September 19, 2004
San Francisco Chronicle
http://www.sfgate.com/

Since he took the oath of office, Bush has acted like an easy winner, an
attitude that helped him after Sept. 11. Decisiveness is what voters require,
a
notion that has eluded Kerry. But if, as Kerry claims, many decisions were "W
for wrong,'' voters will not reward decisiveness. If Kerry can hold onto
Gore's
states and persuade a few thousand voters in Florida and Ohio to switch, he
wins easily. If 5 percent of Bush voters in 10 other swing states switch,
Kerry
wins by a landslide.

Recently, on "Meet the Press,'' President Bush told Tim Russert he is "a war
president.'' On Aug. 30, in a famously Freudian slip, the president told Matt
Lauer on "Today,'' Recently, on "Meet the Press,'' President Bush told Tim
Russert he is "a war president.'' On Aug. 30, in a famously Freudian slip,
the
president told Matt Lauer on "Today,'' "I don't think we can win it.''

FOUR REASONS BUSH IS AN UNDERDOG (1) A self-described "war president" needs
to
be winning the war at re- election time. U.S. troops are bogged down in Iraq,
and the death toll is growing. (2) Bush and his party represent a declining
demographic. The Republican Party is a white, male, Anglo-Saxon Protestant
party, as photos from its convention show. (3) Re-election is not the
presidential norm. Only 11 presidents have served eight consecutive years.
President Reagan was the last Republican president to be re-elected. (4) Al
Gore won the popular vote in 2000. The three presidents who failed the first
time around to win the popular vote did not return to the White House