The wide lead for Kerry and the negative attitudes toward Bush
identified in the poll make it increasingly likely that the
president's re-election campaign will have only a limited presence in
Illinois despite assurances from top Republicans that the state will
be "in play."
The survey revealed severe problems for the president among voters in
the traditionally Republican-leaning collar counties that surround
Cook County.
Among those voters, a narrow plurality now favors Kerry over Bush and
views the president unfavorably while almost half disapprove of the
job he is doing as president.
From The Chicago Tribune, 5/30/04:
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/chi-0405300185may30,1,4739012.story?coll=chi-news-hed
CHICAGO TRIBUNE/WGN-TV POLL
State voter support for Bush dives
By Rick Pearson
Tribune political reporter
For the first time in his presidency, a majority of Illinois voters
now hold an unfavorable opinion of President Bush and also disapprove
of his performance in the White House, particularly his handling of
the occupation of Iraq and an economy that many believe continues to
lag, a new Tribune/WGN-TV poll shows.
Yet, even though the survey shows presumptive Democratic presidential
nominee John Kerry continuing to hold a solid lead over Bush in
Illinois, the Massachusetts senator's support appears to have leveled
out despite the continued decline in the Republican president's
ratings on key issues.
Still, the poll of 600 likely registered voters, conducted May 21-24,
shows Kerry with a commanding 16 percentage-point lead over Bush in a
head-to-head November matchup--54 percent to 38 percent.
And even if independent Ralph Nader were to qualify for the Illinois
ballot, Kerry maintains a 16 percentage-point lead over Bush--53
percent to 37 percent.
Nader receives only 4 percent.
The poll showed 52 percent of Illinois voters now say they have an
unfavorable opinion of Bush compared with only 37 percent who look
upon him favorably.
In addition, 55 percent say they disapprove of the way he is handling
the presidency.
While Illinois has trended Democratic and Bush lost the state by a
dozen percentage points in the 2000 presidential contest, a similar
poll taken just five months ago showed 51 percent of Illinois voters
held a favorable attitude toward Bush while 40 percent disapproved.
Back then, 49 percent of Illinois voters approved of the job Bush was
doing as president while 42 percent did not.
Since that time, however, Bush has been buffeted by a string of bad
news including increasing violence in Iraq that has led to more
American military deaths; continued questions about the quality of
intelligence used to underpin his argument for invading the country;
and allegations of abuse against Iraqi prisoners detained by U.S.
soldiers.
Domestic worries
On the domestic front, job-creation worries and the continued movement
of jobs out of the country, particularly in the manufacturing sector,
remain voter concerns.
The president is also facing criticism over a new consumer pocketbook
issue--the high price of gasoline.
The results of the latest poll, which carries a 4 percentage-point
margin of error, mirror deepening voter concerns over Bush's handling
of Iraq and the economy that also have been detected in polls taken
nationally and in so-called targeted presidential battleground states.
__________________________________________________________
Harry
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