Inconvenient truth, a sequel
Weigh the costs and benefits
June 11, 2006

Inconvenient truth, a sequel
Weigh the costs and benefits
June 11, 2006
http://www.insidedenver.com/drmn/editorials/article/0,2777,DRMN_23964_4763801,00.html

Al Gore was in Denver last month to promote his global-warming
documentary An Inconvenient Truth, which features the former vice
president and opened here Friday.

Unfortunately, as Gore jets around the world promoting his movie, he
continues to argue that central planning on an international scale is
the only appropriate response to rising temperatures. And he downplays
or ignores the high cost and uncertain payoff of such an approach.

The Kyoto Protocol on global warming - the cornerstone of Gore's
agenda - is flawed for two major reasons. The most obvious is that
even if all of Gore's assumptions concerning the causes of global
warming are accurate - a considerable if, by the way - Kyoto wouldn't
halt the warming or even appreciably slow it down.

Tom Wigley, a senior scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric
Research, has calculated (according to the NCAR Web site) that
compliance with Kyoto "would shave 0.11 to 0.21 degrees Celsius
(0.20-0.38 degrees Fahrenheit) off global average temperatures by
2100." For the record, Wigley favors Kyoto but believes additional
measures are required.

But at what cost? Kyoto compliance alone, the federal government
estimates, would drain $300-$400 billion from the U.S. economy each
year. An accelerated mandate for still more drastic reduction of
greenhouse gases could send the world economy into a tailspin at a
time when evidence is mounting that stagnant economies will not be
nimble enough to adapt to the significant challenges that greenhouse
warming might pose.

Even among nations that signed Kyoto, the agreement looks like a
costly bust. The International Council for Capital Formation, a think
tank in Brussels, reports that the 15 European Union signatories will
not cut their overall greenhouse-gas emissions by 4 percent in 2010,
as the agreement dictates; instead, emissions will rise by 8 percent.
Great Britain indeed projects lower emissions, but that's due to a
one-time switch from oil to natural gas to fuel its electric plants
and because Dupont closed a large plant.

The ICCF also concludes that a Kyoto-like proposal by Sen. John
McCain, R-Ariz., to "cap and trade" U.S. greenhouse-gas emissions
would reduce national income by 1.9 percentage points by 2020 and cost
1.3 million jobs; the average household would be $2,300 poorer as a
result of higher energy prices and lower productivity.

Without setting goals or timetables to reduce greenhouse gases, the
United States has reduced its "energy intensity" - the amount of
energy we consume per dollar - nearly twice as fast as the EU over the
past decade. That's because U.S. entrepreneurs have been free to
invest in cleaner, more efficient technologies that will actually
reduce greenhouse-gas emissions over time, rather than scrambling to
meet arbitrary caps.

In fact, the AP6 partnership struck last year by the U.S., Australia,
Japan, India, China and South Korea may do more to reduce greenhouse
gases and push global prosperity than the Kyoto crowd could imagine.

As members of AP6, India and China (which did not sign Kyoto) will
invest in cleaner technologies supplied by the other partners. That's
important because the AP6 accounts for 49 percent of the global
economy and produces half the planet's man-made greenhouse gases.

Richer societies are better positioned to develop and exploit
cutting-edge technologies that run cleaner. The challenge for
policymakers is to get beyond petty moralizing and figure out ways to
democratize economic growth.

--
"Science is the record of dead religions." -- Oscar Wilde

"There are no absolute certainties in this universe. A man must try to
whip order into a yelping pack of probabilities, and uniform success is
impossible." -- Jack Vance

"Civilization is the interval between Ice Ages." -- Will Durant.

"War is God's way of teaching Americans geography" -- Ambrose Bierce

"Progress is the increasing control of the environment by life.
--Will Durant

Joseph R. Darancette
daranc@NOSPAMverizon.net

Inconvenient truth, a sequel
Weigh the costs and benefits
June 11, 2006
http://www.insidedenver.com/drmn/editorials/article/0,2777,DRMN_23964_4763801,00.html

Inconvenient truth, a sequel
Weigh the costs and benefits
June 11, 2006
http://www.insidedenver.com/drmn/editorials/article/0,2777,DRMN_23964_4763801,00.html

Al Gore was in Denver last month to promote his global-warming
documentary An Inconvenient Truth, which features the former vice
president and opened here Friday.

Unfortunately, as Gore jets around the world promoting his movie, he
continues to argue that central planning on an international scale is
the only appropriate response to rising temperatures. And he downplays
or ignores the high cost and uncertain payoff of such an approach.

The Kyoto Protocol on global warming - the cornerstone of Gore's
agenda - is flawed for two major reasons. The most obvious is that
even if all of Gore's assumptions concerning the causes of global
warming are accurate - a considerable if, by the way - Kyoto wouldn't
halt the warming or even appreciably slow it down.

Tom Wigley, a senior scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric
Research, has calculated (according to the NCAR Web site) that
compliance with Kyoto "would shave 0.11 to 0.21 degrees Celsius
(0.20-0.38 degrees Fahrenheit) off global average temperatures by
2100." For the record, Wigley favors Kyoto but believes additional
measures are required.

But at what cost? Kyoto compliance alone, the federal government
estimates, would drain $300-$400 billion from the U.S. economy each
year. An accelerated mandate for still more drastic reduction of
greenhouse gases could send the world economy into a tailspin at a
time when evidence is mounting that stagnant economies will not be
nimble enough to adapt to the significant challenges that greenhouse
warming might pose.

Even among nations that signed Kyoto, the agreement looks like a
costly bust. The International Council for Capital Formation, a think
tank in Brussels, reports that the 15 European Union signatories will
not cut their overall greenhouse-gas emissions by 4 percent in 2010,
as the agreement dictates; instead, emissions will rise by 8 percent.
Great Britain indeed projects lower emissions, but that's due to a
one-time switch from oil to natural gas to fuel its electric plants
and because Dupont closed a large plant.

The ICCF also concludes that a Kyoto-like proposal by Sen. John
McCain, R-Ariz., to "cap and trade" U.S. greenhouse-gas emissions
would reduce national income by 1.9 percentage points by 2020 and cost
1.3 million jobs; the average household would be $2,300 poorer as a
result of higher energy prices and lower productivity.

Without setting goals or timetables to reduce greenhouse gases, the
United States has reduced its "energy intensity" - the amount of
energy we consume per dollar - nearly twice as fast as the EU over the
past decade. That's because U.S. entrepreneurs have been free to
invest in cleaner, more efficient technologies that will actually
reduce greenhouse-gas emissions over time, rather than scrambling to
meet arbitrary caps.

In fact, the AP6 partnership struck last year by the U.S., Australia,
Japan, India, China and South Korea may do more to reduce greenhouse
gases and push global prosperity than the Kyoto crowd could imagine.

As members of AP6, India and China (which did not sign Kyoto) will
invest in cleaner technologies supplied by the other partners. That's
important because the AP6 accounts for 49 percent of the global
economy and produces half the planet's man-made greenhouse gases.

Richer societies are better positioned to develop and exploit
cutting-edge technologies that run cleaner. The challenge for
policymakers is to get beyond petty moralizing and figure out ways to
democratize economic growth.

--
"Science is the record of dead religions." -- Oscar Wilde

"There are no absolute certainties in this universe. A man must try to
whip order into a yelping pack of probabilities, and uniform success is
impossible." -- Jack Vance

"Civilization is the interval between Ice Ages." -- Will Durant.

"War is God's way of teaching Americans geography" -- Ambrose Bierce

"Progress is the increasing control of the environment by life.
--Will Durant

Joseph R. Darancette
daranc@NOSPAMverizon.net