http://www.thecarpetbaggerreport.com/archives/13793.html

December 3, 2007

Iran has no nuclear program; right-wing efforts suffer setback


The Bush administration assembled a new National Intelligence Estimate
focused exclusively on Iran, but ***** Cheney has been working behind
the scenes to keep the information secret.

Now we know why.
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/03/world/middleeast/03cnd-iran.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin


A new assessment by American intelligence agencies concludes that Iran
halted its nuclear weapons program in 2003 and that the program
remains on hold, contradicting an assessment two years ago that Tehran
was working inexorably toward building a bomb.

The conclusions of the new assessment are likely to be major factor in
the tense international negotiations aimed at getting Iran to halt its
nuclear energy program, and they come in the middle of a presidential
campaign during which a possible military strike against Iran's
nuclear program has been discussed.

The assessment, a National Intelligence Estimate that represents the
consensus view of all 16 American spy agencies, states that Tehran's
ultimate intentions about gaining a nuclear weapon remain unclear, but
that Iran's "decisions are guided by a cost-benefit approach rather
than a rush to a weapon irrespective of the political, economic and
military costs."

"Some combination of threats of intensified international scrutiny and
pressures, along with opportunities for Iran to achieve its security,
prestige, and goals for regional influence in other ways might - if
perceived by Iran's leaders as credible - prompt Tehran to extend the
current halt to its nuclear weapons program," the estimate states.


Let's not lose sight of the context of this news.

The President has, on more than one recent occasion, talked about
"World War III" with Iran.
http://www.thecarpetbaggerreport.com/archives/13533.html

The Vice President has been dusting off his 2002 speeches, blustering
that the U.S. "cannot stand by as a terror-supporting state fulfills
its grandest ambitions."
http://www.thecarpetbaggerreport.com/archives/13478.html

The man responsible for shaping Rudy Giuliani's foreign policy vision
believes anyone opposed to immediate miltary strikes in Iran are
guilty of "an irresponsible complacency that I think is comparable to
the denial in the early '30s of the intentions of Hitler."
http://www.thecarpetbaggerreport.com/archives/13415.html

But, once again, they're all wrong.

Kevin Drum highlights the key excerpt from the newly-released
document:
http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/2007_12/012622.php


We judge with high confidence that in fall 2003, Tehran halted its
nuclear weapons program; we also assess with moderate-to-high
confidence that Tehran at a minimum is keeping open the option to
develop nuclear weapons.

..We assess with high confidence that until fall 2003, Iranian
military entities were working under government direction to develop
nuclear weapons.

We judge with high confidence that the halt lasted at least several
years..

We assess with moderate confidence Tehran had not restarted its
nuclear weapons program as of mid-2007..

Tehrans [sic] decision to halt its nuclear weapons program suggests it
is less determined to develop nuclear weapons than we have been
judging since 2005.


If Iran were to restart its program - and there's no evidence to
suggest it's going to - it wouldn't have a weapon, at the earliest,
until 2010-2015.

This is, in other words, a very sad day for the White House, Joe
Lieberman, the staff of the Weekly Standard, and Rudy Giuliani's
presidential campaign, but a very good day for the rest of us.

I realize we're dealing with a crowd that makes its own reality, but
it's going to be pretty tough to characterize Iran as an imminent
threat anytime soon.

As for the Bush gang's reaction to all of this, National Security
Adviser Stephen Hadley did his best to spin the news, telling
reporters the NIE "confirms that we were right to be worried about
Iran seeking to develop nuclear weapons."

Um, Steve?

Can I call you "Steve"?

While your boss was trying to scare the nation into what he labeled
"World War III," the reality is Iran halted its nuclear weapons
program more than four years ago.

Phrases like "we were right" probably aren't prudent right now.

Post Script:

Amanda emphasized an important point from a recent IPS report:

"A National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Iran has been held up for
more than a year in an effort to force the intelligence community to
remove dissenting judgments on the Iranian nuclear programme, and thus
make the document more supportive of U.S. Vice President ***** Cheney's
militarily aggressive policy toward Iran."

Second Post Script:

Maybe the neocons will try to push for a war anyway, based on Iranian
meddling in Iraq?

Apparently, that's no longer on the list of Bush administration
talking points, either.

______________________________________________

Oh that sneaky Bush Crime Family

Harry