In the good, old days, the MAD logic reigned supreme. (MAD =3D Mutually
Assured Destruction).
If the USA hurled intercontinental nuclear rockets at the Soviet Union,
the Russians would detect the assault by radar within minutes and would
with deadly certainty retaliate sending intercontinental ballistic
missiles against America.
And vice versa.
But in 2006, the time is out of joint. The world has lost its balance.
We have just experienced an Irananian war by proxy against Israel - not
entirely without success, an Iran which unabashedly continues enriching
uran for the use of producing atom bombs.
Can Israel in this situation trust a new breed of MAD logic, a new
balance between the nuclear capabilities of Israel and Iran to grow up
in due course ?
Israel will probably not take up the bet. Rather should we be inclined
to believe that Israel will consider the dawning Iranian nuclear
capability a deadly threat to Israel's existence.
The head of Mossad, Meir Dagan, has calculated the appearance of the
first Iranian atom bombs to occur some time between 2007 and 2009.
http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/printer-friendly.asp?ARTICLE_ID=3D49984
http://www.newsmax.com/archives/ic/2005/12/30/112612.shtml
2007 - that is 3 =BD months from now. And as you know, the nuclear
programmes of very keen (and fearful) nations are apt to "give birth"
prematurely. It applied to the USA in 1945, to the Soviet Union in 1949
and, recently, to North Korea.
Then, are there any other realistic options for Israel (and USA) than
to destroy the nuclear capability of Iran ? Probably not.
Theoretically, a raid against the Iranian nuclear capability is not
unfeasible. But it is just as certain that it will be a very large
project. Israel and USA have the required capacity. And Iran knows
that. But the newcomers, the Iranians, do not find themselves in a
situation, where they can retaliate against an assault within minutes.
This range of retribution is quite simply not available to Iran.
Iran must realize that after an Israeli/American air bombardment of
Iranian nuclear facilities, air ports, etc., there will just be no
Iranian retributive capacity left at all.
Unless, of course, Iran strikes first. And considers itself, rightly or
wrongly, in the defensive and paradoxical situation that the
retribution must necessarily set in *before* the attack.
If there is to be any retribution at all.
See also:
http://www.contrapublishing.com/Afterdoomsday.pdf pp. 6-7
Steen Hjortsoe
Copenhagen
Denmark
Website: http://www.contrapublishing.com
e-mail:
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