September 2, 2006
Iraqi Casualties Are Up Sharply, Study Finds
By MICHAEL R. GORDON
WASHINGTON — Iraqi casualties soared by more than 50 percent in recent
months, the product of spiraling sectarian clashes and a Sunni-based
insurgency that remains “potent and viable,” the Pentagon said in its
latest comprehensive assessment of security in Iraq.
During the period from the establishment of the new Iraqi government
on May 20 until Aug. 11, the average number of weekly attacks jumped
to almost 800. That was a substantial increase from earlier this year
and almost double the number of the first part of 2004.
As a consequence, Iraqi casualties increased 51 percent over the last
reporting period. The document notes that, based on initial reports,
Iraqi casualties among civilians and security forces reached nearly
120 a day, up from about 80 a day in the pervious reporting period
from mid-February to mid-May. About two years ago they were running
about 30 a day.
“Although the overall number of attacks increased in all categories,
the proportion of those attacks directed against civilians increased
substantially,” the Pentagon noted. “Death squads and terrorists are
locked in mutually reinforcing cycles of sectarian strife, with Sunni
and Shia extremists each portraying themselves as the defenders of
their respective sectarian groups.”
The Pentagon report, titled “Measuring Security and Stability in
Iraq,” is mandated by Congress and issued quarterly. It covers a broad
range of subjects, including the economy, public attitudes, and
security.
This time, the study is the focus of special interest because of
increasing fears that Iraq is sliding into civil war and because it is
being published at a time when President Bush and members of his
cabinet have been trying to present a strong case in support of the
war, in the face of vehement criticism from Democrats.
The report does not take account of the latest efforts to bring order
to Baghdad, operations that involved 12,000 additional soldiers,
including some 7,000 additional American troops. Col. Thomas Vail, the
commander of a brigade of the 101st Airborne Division, told reporters
on Friday that his troops had made progress in recent days in tamping
down the violence in the capital. The last several days have been
particularly bloody, with about 250 Iraqis killed and scores wounded
since Sunday. The Pentagon acknowledged that the grim data on attacks,
casualties and executions was distressing. “It’s a pretty sober report
this time,” said Peter Rodman, a senior Pentagon official, who met
with reporters to discuss it. “The last quarter, it’s been rough.
Sectarian violence has been particularly acute and disturbing.”
Democratic lawmakers portrayed the report as evidence that the
administration’s strategy was failing. “They have not provided the
real resources, in terms of both military and civilian advisers, nor
real dollars to reconstruct and help Iraq emerge from this period of
instability,” Senator Jack Reed of Rhode Island said.
The report chronicles dangers on an array of fronts. Although the
Sunni-based insurgency has received less news media attention since
the surge of sectarian violence, the report cautions that it is
resilient and strong. The number of attacks in Anbar Province, a vast
Sunni-dominated region in western Iraq, averages more than 30 a day.
Regarding Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia’s operations in Iraq, the report
says the network’s “cellular nature” has enabled it to continue
attacks despite the death of its leader, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi.
But sectarian strife has emerged as the biggest worry. In recent
months, the Pentagon noted, “The core conflict in Iraq changed into a
struggle between Sunni and Shia extremists seeking to control key
areas in Baghdad, create or protect sectarian enclaves, divert
economic resources, and impose their own respective political and
religious agendas.” Echoing recent statements by senior American
military commanders, the report says that “conditions that could lead
to civil war exist in Iraq, especially in and around Baghdad, and
concern about civil war within the Iraqi population has increased in
recent months.”
The report notes that sectarian violence is gradually expanding north
to Kirkuk and Diyala Province. Further, the confidence of Iraqis in
the future has diminished, according to public opinion surveys cited
in the Pentagon report.
Still, the study says the fighting in Iraq does not meet the
“stringent international legal standards for civil war,” without
further explanation. Even so, the sectarian fighting has been bloodier
than ever.
In discussing daily casualty rates, the report did not distinguish
between the number of dead and wounded. But it noted that
execution-type killings, in particular, reached a new high in July.
“The Baghdad Coroner’s Office reported 1,600 bodies arrived in June
and more than 1,800 bodies in July, 90 percent of which were assessed
to be the result of executions,” the report states.
The report says that progress has been made in fielding Iraqi Army
units and police that can take over the main responsibility for
security. It says 5 Iraqi Army divisions, 25 brigades and 85
battalions have the lead for security in their areas. It notes that a
lack of noncommissioned officers and absenteeism are obstacles to
fielding an effective Iraqi force. Though the 63-page report does not
discuss military operations in Baghdad in detail, it has become clear
in recent months that Iraq could not be effectively secured without
the active involvement of the Americans. When the Americans cut back
patrols in Baghdad, violence rose and American commanders decided to
send additional troops to the capital from elsewhere in the country.
The report notes that Iraq’s Interior Ministry does not have a system
to determine how many of the forces trained by police advisers are
still on the job. Advisers from the American-led forces estimate that
the attrition rate is about 20 percent a year.
Citing polling data from the International Republican Institute, the
report states that almost 80 percent of Iraqis thought in April 2006
that the general situation would be better in a year. By June, it was
less than 50 percent. “In general, Iraqis have had an optimistic
outlook,” the report stated. “However, as time has passed, their
optimism has eroded.”
-----------------------------------------------------
.
|
