| Topic: |
Politics > Politics-USA |
| User: |
"enceladus" |
| Date: |
02 Oct 2005 08:02:59 PM |
| Object: |
Jr's Legacy- Two Recessions and a Disasterous War!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! |
Newsview: Economy Could Add to GOP Woes
By TOM RAUM, Associated Press WriterSun Oct 2, 1:14 PM ET
Things are going so badly for President Bush and his fellow Republicans that
it is hard to imagine what could come along and make it worse. Think
recession.
With Bush's approval ratings near a low point, he is running near empty on
political capital and finds himself presiding over a restive GOP.
A recession could hasten his status as a lame-duck president ahead of the
2006 midterm elections and jolt the party that controls both ends of
Pennsylvania Avenue.
The "R" word is being heard more often among economists, especially after
recent reports showed tumbles in consumer spending and confidence.
New home sales are down. Auto sales have slowed. Higher energy prices - due
partly to the hurricanes that damaged drilling and refining installations
along the Gulf Coast - have eroded consumers' buying power. Inflation is
trending higher. Interest rates, too.
"Recession risks are rapidly rising," said Mark Zandi, chief economist of
Economy.com, an economic analysis service in West Chester, Pa. The last
recession was in 2001.
Zandi is not forecasting a recession. But he said a cold winter, a further
pullback in consumer spending, a terrorist attack and other variables could
tip the scales. "And if we are going into a recession, by time we get around
to figuring that out, it will be too late," he said.
Bush's pledge to spend "whatever it costs" to rebuild the Gulf Coast and the
high bill for the Iraq war will keep swelling the deficit and limit his
options for fighting an economic downturn.
A recession would mean fewer dollars flowing into the treasury and force the
government to pay out more benefits to the poor and those idled by the
hurricanes.
If the economy slides into a recession because of inflation driven by energy
prices, that could restrict the Federal Reserve's ability to stimulate the
economy with lower interest rates. The scenario could unfold just as the
central bank's chairman, Alan Greenspan, who has helped to keep the economy
on an even keel during his 18-year term, nears his retirement in January.
Attention lately has focused on Bush's filling out the Supreme Court. But
his selection of a new Fed chief ranks right up there in terms of
far-reaching consequences.
Private economists and market watchers are suggesting that Bush follow the
pattern he set in naming John Roberts as chief justice: Pick someone with
solid credibility and experience to succeed Greenspan, in an effort to calm
market jitters.
The betting is that Bush will not wait until January and will announce his
choice in the fall. The post requires Senate approval.
Eventually, the economic damage from the hurricanes will wear off, replaced
by a boost from reconstruction.
"We're fortunate that the economy is very, very strong now. It will continue
to be strong," said Al Hubbard, chairman of Bush's National Economic
Council.
But David Wyss, chief economist for Standard and Poors in New York, said the
"key question is how high energy prices go."
"In the current range, I don't think they're high enough to cause a
recession. But if something else goes wrong, or if energy goes high enough,
it could still turn into a recession," said Wyss.
While people may be adapting to $3-a-gallon gasoline and making fewer trips,
they are due for a much bigger shock later this year, economists suggest.
Home heating costs have soared, including a doubling in the price of natural
gas, since the beginning of the summer. Consumers, however, have yet to feel
the impact directly. That will change soon as colder weather sets in.
Recessions happen for psychological as well as economic reasons. They can be
triggered when consumers and business executives alike restrict spending
because the future looks bleak to them.
Polls suggest the public increasingly is troubled by rising energy costs and
the economy.
Bush and his GOP allies, meanwhile, have been buffeted by waves of bad news:
criticism on Iraq, a fumbled initial response to Hurricane Katrina, and
investigations of House Majority Leader Tom DeLay, R-Texas, and Senate
Majority Leader Bill Frist, R-Tenn.
DeLay stepped aside as leader after a Texas grand jury indicted him on a
charge of conspiracy to violate state campaign laws. The Securities Exchange
Commission is scrutinizing Frist for unloading his shares in hospital chain
HCA ahead of a July earnings warning that sent the stock tumbling.
Bush gets good marks for his hands-on response to Hurricane Rita, even from
Democrats, who applaud him for promising to lift those in the region from
poverty. But they are a little skeptical of his math.
"What really bothers me is that the president is telling us that he wants to
deal with poverty and address the issues that poor people confront. But at
the same time, he says he wants to cut domestic spending and doesn't want to
revisit his tax cuts," Rep. Ellijah Cummings, D-Md., past chairman of the
Congressional Black, said in an interview.
"They just don't go together," Cummings said.
___
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| User: "SyVyN11" |
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| Title: Re: Jr's Legacy- Two Recessions and a Disasterous War!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! |
02 Oct 2005 09:32:05 PM |
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"enceladus" <enceladus@saturn.net> wrote in message
news:5sWdncad6rzZHt3eRVn-vA@comcast.com...
Newsview: Economy Could Add to GOP Woes
By TOM RAUM, Associated Press WriterSun Oct 2, 1:14 PM ET
Newsview??? Glad you can get mainstream news sources. what's a matter,
Newsweek and Time are too conservative?
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| User: "plonk" |
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| Title: Re: Jr's Legacy- Two Recessions and a Disasterous War!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! |
03 Oct 2005 06:32:05 PM |
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On Mon, 03 Oct 2005 02:32:05 GMT, "SyVyN11"
<711robhorine@earthlink.net> wrote:
"enceladus" <enceladus@saturn.net> wrote in message
news:5sWdncad6rzZHt3eRVn-vA@comcast.com...
Newsview: Economy Could Add to GOP Woes
By TOM RAUM, Associated Press WriterSun Oct 2, 1:14 PM ET
Newsview??? Glad you can get mainstream news sources.
What the ***** good are they? Pusillanimous tabloid junk !!
I didn't need Newsview to tell me what Jr's disasterous legacy is.
I could have figured it out just paying attention to Tabloid TVs
attenuations to real news watchers.
what's a matter,
Newsweek and Time are too conservative?
What the hell do modern day Republicans have to do with
conservatism ? It's obviously not a priority for anything other
than hot air.
http://www.antiwar.com/photos/perm/bush-joke.jpg
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| User: "nospam" |
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| Title: Re: Jr's Legacy- Two Recessions and a Disasterous War!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! |
03 Oct 2005 09:17:59 PM |
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enceladus wrote:
A recession could hasten his status as a lame-duck president ahead of the
2006 midterm elections and jolt the party that controls both ends of
Pennsylvania Avenue.
You remember the teens movie "Saved by the bell?" well, Bush economy may
just be a reply with the title "Saved by Katrina". I am not joking.
The tax cuts indeed hurt very bad the recovery from the last recession and
their effect combined with globalization had (and they still have) the
potential to trigger another one.
A recession happen when (due to some triggering factors) the investors do
not get back as return of investment as much as they expect and they
withdraw from the market. The triggers of a recession may be various, but
in current situation the biggest issue is the decline of the real income of
the average population (consumers).
Instead of pushing money at the bottom of the pyramid where most needed to
increase consumption, the current administration wasted money as tax cuts
received mainly by the people having enough wealth to afford whatever they
wanted, before tax cuts. Therefore, tax cuts money did not influence to
much the spending pattern of consumers. To make the mater worst, the
biggest ROI come from offshore investments, and the tax cuts money were
invested there increasing the influx of cheap products on the market,
forcing more domestic manufacturing businesses to reduce activity or look
to move the production offshore. The perfect condition for a new recession
in chain and possibly a new Great Depression were created as direct result
of tax cuts.
Katrina, however may help our economy. As counterintuitive as it appear this
may be a recovery pill. The disaster was humongous, and the rebuilding
process will cost a lot. However, rebuilding effort is going to create a
lot of jobs not only in the construction industry but also on the vertical
manufacturing side. China alone is not going to have the economic power to
start providing into such a short time all the materials needed for
reconstruction. It is the US manufacturing industry that can be revived at
emergency to provide what is needed. With a clear demand for their
products, manufacturers may start to hire workers, providing again decent
jobs. In effect, there will be more money to spend preventing the economy
to fall into the next recession, as directed by the brain damaged tax cuts.
The only issue left is the budget. If tax cuts are to be maintained, we may
reach the point where no money will be available to finance reconstruction.
If this effort stop, then a recession is very likely. Therefore, the tax
cuts must be allowed to expire, and use the money to finance the
reconstruction and save our economy, until we are ready to reform it.
More at:
----------------------------
  Tax cuts, a very bad way to recover from recession:
http://groups-beta.google.com/group/us.politics/msg/5190ab193ce57d67?hl=en&
      Highway bill vs. tax cuts:
http://groups-beta.google.com/group/us.politics/msg/24dcca1f46b90054?hl=en&
      Tax cuts + Globalization = Disaster
http://groups-beta.google.com/group/us.politics/msg/c0df6134e50f4112?hl=en&
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| User: "plonk" |
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| Title: Re: Jr's Legacy- Two Recessions and a Disasterous War!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! |
04 Oct 2005 10:05:08 AM |
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On Mon, 03 Oct 2005 22:17:59 -0400, nospam <nospam@example.com> wrote:
enceladus wrote:
A recession could hasten his status as a lame-duck president ahead of the
2006 midterm elections and jolt the party that controls both ends of
Pennsylvania Avenue.
You remember the teens movie "Saved by the bell?" well, Bush economy may
just be a reply with the title "Saved by Katrina". I am not joking.
The tax cuts indeed hurt very bad the recovery from the last recession and
their effect combined with globalization had (and they still have) the
potential to trigger another one.
A recession happen when (due to some triggering factors) the investors do
not get back as return of investment as much as they expect and they
withdraw from the market. The triggers of a recession may be various, but
in current situation the biggest issue is the decline of the real income of
the average population (consumers).
Instead of pushing money at the bottom of the pyramid where most needed to
increase consumption, the current administration wasted money as tax cuts
received mainly by the people having enough wealth to afford whatever they
wanted, before tax cuts. Therefore, tax cuts money did not influence to
much the spending pattern of consumers. To make the mater worst, the
biggest ROI come from offshore investments, and the tax cuts money were
invested there increasing the influx of cheap products on the market,
forcing more domestic manufacturing businesses to reduce activity or look
to move the production offshore. The perfect condition for a new recession
in chain and possibly a new Great Depression were created as direct result
of tax cuts.
Katrina, however may help our economy. As counterintuitive as it appear this
may be a recovery pill. The disaster was humongous, and the rebuilding
process will cost a lot. However, rebuilding effort is going to create a
lot of jobs not only in the construction industry but also on the vertical
manufacturing side. China alone is not going to have the economic power to
start providing into such a short time all the materials needed for
reconstruction. It is the US manufacturing industry that can be revived at
emergency to provide what is needed. With a clear demand for their
products, manufacturers may start to hire workers, providing again decent
jobs. In effect, there will be more money to spend preventing the economy
to fall into the next recession, as directed by the brain damaged tax cuts.
The only issue left is the budget. If tax cuts are to be maintained, we may
reach the point where no money will be available to finance reconstruction.
If this effort stop, then a recession is very likely. Therefore, the tax
cuts must be allowed to expire, and use the money to finance the
reconstruction and save our economy, until we are ready to reform it.
More at:
----------------------------
Tax cuts, a very bad way to recover from recession:
http://groups-beta.google.com/group/us.politics/msg/5190ab193ce57d67?hl=en&
Highway bill vs. tax cuts:
http://groups-beta.google.com/group/us.politics/msg/24dcca1f46b90054?hl=en&
Tax cuts + Globalization = Disaster
http://groups-beta.google.com/group/us.politics/msg/c0df6134e50f4112?hl=en&
Interesting.
It is the cuts in the middle of massive spending that
promises a legacy of debt for the next President to fix.
Katrina mostly solidifies the Democratic base anyway. The
stupid gamble to go inti Iraq is the main factor that will be
undermining the future of the GOP for awhile both for
economic and strategic reasons.
http://www.antiwar.com/photos/perm/bush-joke.jpg
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