Kerry pledge to widen coalition may be unrealistic
Europeans wary of acceding to U.S.
- Vivienne Walt, Chronicle Foreign Service
Tuesday, October 5, 2004
Paris -- John Kerry may be overstating his ability to broaden the
international coalition in the Iraq war and to win back countries
alienated by President Bush's military strategy, European analysts
say.
While Western Europeans, many of whom dislike Bush, expressed pleasure
at Kerry's performance in last week's presidential debate, security
experts here are skeptical about the "four-point plan" for Iraq
outlined by Kerry, which includes getting more help from European
nations.
"Kerry cannot do miracles, because the situation in Iraq itself will
be a major impediment on the already great reticence among America's
allies," said Dominique Moisi, deputy director of the French Institute
of International Affairs in Paris. "Even if they want to help, there
is little Kerry can do to change the situation in Iraq."
Kerry's progress in the polls, and the aftermath of his first debate
with Bush, have been the subject of much discussion in European
capitals, in part because the Democratic contender has pledged to
repair Washington's international relationships -- primarily with
European leaders -- that have been battered by Bush's invasion of Iraq
and the tumultuous 18-month war there.
"All the gossip before the debate was that Kerry was going to lose the
elections," said Rosemary Hollis, director of the Middle East program
at Chatham House in London, Britain's premier international think
tank. "But the talk has suddenly been: 'Gosh, can he actually win?' "
That possibility has sparked intense discussion about one of Kerry's
major campaign appeals -- that he, rather than Bush, can win back the
affections of U.S. allies and persuade them to help in the daunting
reconstruction of Iraq.
Kerry has repeatedly promised to broaden the military coalition in
Iraq, saying in the debate that as president, he would have "the
credibility to bring the allies back to the table and to do what's
necessary, to make it so America isn't doing this alone."
But while Europeans overwhelmingly favor Kerry over Bush in opinion
polls, the ability of European leaders to make dramatic changes to
their policies in Iraq could be limited. To them, Kerry's key
advantage as president would be more subtle: a feeling that he was not
the architect of the Iraq war.
"Kerry would be less inclined to claim an American victory in Iraq and
could look at anything that will sort the place out," Hollis said.
During Thursday's debate, Kerry said that as president, he would
quickly organize an international summit on Iraq. Such a summit would
probably need major European involvement. But Hollis said European
leaders remained wary of following the example of British Prime
Minister Tony Blair, who is seen by many on the continent as simply
acceding to Bush's wishes.
German and French officials, for example, have stated repeatedly that
they will not join any coalition in Iraq so long as the U.S.
government insists on retaining overall military command.
Hollis said many Europeans believed little would be done to change the
dynamics of the relationship with Washington, even under a Kerry
presidency.
"European leaders fear that they won't really be consulted by Kerry if
he's elected," she said. "He needs help, rather than an alliance. He
is not as multilateralist as he sounds."
However, Moisi said French officials might -- with a President Kerry
--
consider sending French paramilitary police to Iraq and would probably
offer more reconstruction funds. "We could do small things, not big
things," he said.
A President Kerry would be likely to demand substantially more, one
U.S. analyst predicted.
"The Europeans have to be willing to take a little pain, too, because
we are in a really different time here, and we need their help," said
Michael O'Hanlon, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, a
Washington think tank. "They are not doing anything close to their
fair share."
As president, Kerry could "offer an olive branch" to France and
Germany - - Europe's two major economic powers -- and so expect them
to begin contributing more significantly to cover the massive costs of
the war, O'Hanlon said.
Europeans, meanwhile, are continuing to follow the American election
very closely, apparently sensing that it may have a direct effect on
their lives.
Underscoring that sense, the full transcript of the first Kerry-Bush
debate was published over four pages in Le Monde, France's most
important daily newspaper. "This is viewed now as an election for the
world," Moisi said. "I'm really struck by this."
Good morning. Or as John Kerry would say, Bonjour.
Ken (NY)
"I think it was the right decision to disarm Saddam Hussein, and when
the President made the decision, I supported him, and I support the fact
that we did disarm him."
--John F. Kerry (ABC News, 5/4/03)
"I thought that John Kerry’s statement in his announcement
address, that he voted for the resolution just to threaten
Saddam Hussein, was unbelievable. It was clearly an authorization
for President Bush to use force against Saddam. We don’t
need a waffler in charge of our country’s future."
--Senator Joe Lieberman
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