Politics > Politics-USA > Let's Blow this Myth of "Global Warming has Lead to REALLY intenseHurricanes..." Out of the Water
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Politics > Politics-USA |
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"=?windows-1252?Q?=A7=B3R=CA=D1=D0=CF=FEi=86=FF?=" |
| Date: |
23 Sep 2005 07:34:53 AM |
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Let's Blow this Myth of "Global Warming has Lead to REALLY intenseHurricanes..." Out of the Water |
Raw Data:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastint.shtml
Scatter Plot: Year vs. Hurricane Rank (from above data)
http://www.peterduncan.net/hurricane_vs_year.jpg
If we were to see an increase in the number and power of storms, you
would see more dots towards the upper left of this chart.
Sorry libs. The sky is not falling.
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| User: "Aperio" |
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| Title: Re: Let's Blow this Myth of "Global Warming has Lead to REALLY intense Hurricanes..." Out of the Water |
23 Sep 2005 07:58:35 AM |
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"§³RÊÑÐÏþi†ÿ" <A@A.A> wrote in message
news:G9qdnSbePr7sa67eRVn-jg@comcast.com...
Raw Data:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastint.shtml
Scatter Plot: Year vs. Hurricane Rank (from above data)
http://www.peterduncan.net/hurricane_vs_year.jpg
If we were to see an increase in the number and power of storms, you
would see more dots towards the upper left of this chart.
Sorry libs. The sky is not falling.
hmmmmmmmm a .gov website. Is this the same people who can't glue a heat
shield tile on correctly? Or spray foam on a fuel cylinder?
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| User: "J Dubya" |
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| Title: Re: Let's Blow this Myth of "Global Warming has Lead to REALLY intense Hurricanes..." Out of the Water |
23 Sep 2005 08:08:14 AM |
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=A7=B3R=CA=D1=D0=CF=FEi=86=FF wrote:
Raw Data: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastint.shtml
Scatter Plot: Year vs. Hurricane Rank (from above data)
http://www.peterduncan.net/hurricane_vs_year.jpg
If we were to see an increase in the number and power of storms, you
would see more dots towards the upper left of this chart.
Sorry libs. The sky is not falling.
Sorry, Dippity, that does not constitute a statistical
analysis. Where is the linear regression? Where is the
discussion of average intensity?
Here's the abstract of a peer-reviewed scientific analysis
that points to global warming increasing hurricane intensity
(by correlating ocean surface temperature to hurricane intensity
and pointing out that ocean surface temperatures are rising
worldwide due to global warming):
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v401/n6754/abs/401665a0_r.html
referenced at
http://web.mit.edu/newsoffice/2005/hurricanes.html
And here are some quotes from one of the foremost hurricane
researchers in the world:
'Kerry Emanuel is a professor of meteorology in the MIT Department of
Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, and author of the
just-published "Divine Wind: The History and Science of Hurricanes."
Earlier in the summer, Emanuel reported that hurricanes have grown more
powerful and destructive over the last three decades due in part to
global warming, and this work was cited often in the media coverage of
Hurricane Katrina.
"I think it's a safe bet that the next hundred years are going to have
more Cat 4 and 5 hurricane strikes in the US than the last hundred
years. But we're not used to thinking on those time scales, and that's
part of the problem." -- Kerry Emanuel
National Public Radio, Sept. 12, 2005
"The temperature of the tropic oceans is warmer than it's been in 150
years." -- Kerry Emanuel
USA Today, Sept. 6, 2005
"If you consider hurricanes over their entire life, and not just when
they make landfall, you really do see an upward trend in the power of
hurricanes--not in their frequency--but in the magnitude of the wind
speed and also in their duration." -- Kerry Emanuel
National Public Radio, Sept. 6, 2005
"'Divine Wind' amazing read after Katrina"
Birmingham News, Sept. 4, 2005
"We've gotten so much better at track prediction. It's really
gratifying to see that. But we haven't gotten much better at all in
forecasting hurricane intensity." -- Kerry Emanuel
National Public Radio, Sept. 2, 2005
"What has everybody in my profession so concerned--and we've been
concerned for decades--is the confluence of a huge upsurge in the
coastal population with a natural upswing in the number of storms in
the Atlantic." -- Kerry Emanuel
Living on Earth, Sept. 2, 2005
"Hurricanes have killed more people worldwide in the last 50 years than
any other natural cataclysm." -- Kerry Emanuel, in the preface to his
new book on hurricanes.
Houston Chronicle, Sept. 2, 2005
"We're in for a rough ride over the next 10 years." -- Kerry Emanuel,
emphasizing that the current increase in hurricanes in the Atlantic is
part of a natural cycle.
US News & World Report, Aug. 31, 2005'
http://web.mit.edu/newsoffice/2005/hurricane-quotes.html
HTH,
-J Dubya(Your credentials, again, are?)
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| User: "John Black" |
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| Title: Re: Let's Blow this Myth of "Global Warming has Lead to REALLY intense Hurricanes..." Out of the Water |
23 Sep 2005 10:52:28 AM |
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In article <1127480894.752702.207460@f14g2000cwb.googlegroups.com>,
jbwinston@gmail.com says...
"I think it's a safe bet that the next hundred years are going to have
more Cat 4 and 5 hurricane strikes in the US than the last hundred
years. But we're not used to thinking on those time scales, and that's
part of the problem." -- Kerry Emanuel
National Public Radio, Sept. 12, 2005
Notice all of your quotes are from Kerry Emanual. This guy has found a
great way to become real famous real quick. Scream the sky is falling
and give the media a sensationalistic story -- even better if it somehow
makes Bush or America look bad. They media loves this just as they were
all over the Global Cooling fad in the 70s and how we were going to be
doomed by another ice age (also caused by man made polution). There
were scientists back then pushing that theory and there were scientists
who were reasonably skeptical. Guess which ones the media jumped on??
It got so crazy that in a Newsweek magazine article one of the remedies
being proposed was for us to melt the polar ice caps (by covering them
with black soot) as an extreme way to avert the ice age. Note also that
Emanual's own colleagues that he has written papers on hurricanes with
come to the opposite conclusion that he has.
John Black
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| User: "J Dubya" |
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| Title: Re: Let's Blow this Myth of "Global Warming has Lead to REALLY intense Hurricanes..." Out of the Water |
24 Sep 2005 05:29:47 PM |
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Notice all of your quotes are from Kerry Emanual. This guy has found a
great way to become real famous real quick. Scream the sky is falling
and give the media a sensationalistic story [...]
There are plenty of scientists who believe global warming is real,
because they have done research that corroborates the theory,
not because they are self-aggrandizing, have an axe to grind,
or a political ideology to flog.
E.g., cf. http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/reprint/309/5742/1844.pdf
HTH,
-J Dubya
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| User: "John Black" |
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| Title: Re: Let's Blow this Myth of "Global Warming has Lead to REALLY intense Hurricanes..." Out of the Water |
26 Sep 2005 09:49:39 AM |
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In article <1127600987.084325.183110@g49g2000cwa.googlegroups.com>,
jbwinston@gmail.com says...
Notice all of your quotes are from Kerry Emanual. This guy has found a
great way to become real famous real quick. Scream the sky is falling
and give the media a sensationalistic story [...]
There are plenty of scientists who believe global warming is real,
because they have done research that corroborates the theory,
not because they are self-aggrandizing, have an axe to grind,
or a political ideology to flog.
We were talking about the link to stronger hurricanes which however
fashionable the media stories are right now is highly doubtful so saying
that plenty of scientists believe global warming is real has nothing to
do with whether they agree with Emanual's conclusions regarding
hurricanes. Also, the big issue with global warming is not whether it
is "real" or not, it is whether it is human caused or not. No one
doubts that the earth is in a warming period as it has been many times
in its history.
John Black
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| User: "=?windows-1252?Q?=A7=B3R=CA=D1=D0=CF=FEi=86=FF?=" |
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| Title: Re: Let's Blow this Myth of "Global Warming has Lead to REALLY intenseHurricanes..." Out of the Water |
23 Sep 2005 08:30:37 AM |
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J Dubya wrote:
§³RÊÑÐÏþi†ÿ wrote:
Raw Data: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastint.shtml
Scatter Plot: Year vs. Hurricane Rank (from above data)
http://www.peterduncan.net/hurricane_vs_year.jpg
If we were to see an increase in the number and power of storms, you
would see more dots towards the upper left of this chart.
Sorry libs. The sky is not falling.
Sorry, Dippity, that does not constitute a statistical
analysis. Where is the linear regression? Where is the
discussion of average intensity?
Even better than "average" intensity is ACTUAL intensity, storm by
storm, decade by decade.
http://www.peterduncan.net/Hurricanes_decade.jpg
http://www.peterduncan.net/Hurricanes_decade_chart.jpg
(linear regression provided in this case b/c there does appear to be an
observable trend, and it isn't what you would expect).
Data source:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastdec.shtml
Get the raw data from NOAA, put it into Excel, and open your own eyes.
BTW: Tough to have a linear regression in a scatter plot that actually
shows NO trend, right?
Now, if your hypothesis was correct, that as we have progressed through
the last century into this one, water became warmer, and storms became
more severe and numerous, you COULD have a linear regression in that
case. However, your observation proves my point even more. There ISN'T
any trend associated with worst storms in terms of year, and as such, a
linear regression would be pretty useless.
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| User: "J Dubya" |
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| Title: Re: Let's Blow this Myth of "Global Warming has Lead to REALLY intense Hurricanes..." Out of the Water |
23 Sep 2005 10:12:35 AM |
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=A7=B3R=CA=D1=D0=CF=FEi=86=FF wrote:
[...]
Even better than "average" intensity is ACTUAL intensity, storm by
storm, decade by decade.
http://www.peterduncan.net/Hurricanes_decade.jpg
http://www.peterduncan.net/Hurricanes_decade_chart.jpg
(linear regression provided in this case b/c there does appear to be an
observable trend, and it isn't what you would expect).
[...]
Now, if your hypothesis was correct, that as we have progressed through
the last century into this one, water became warmer, and storms became
more severe and numerous, you COULD have a linear regression in that
case. However, your observation proves my point even more. There ISN'T
any trend associated with worst storms in terms of year, and as such, a
linear regression would be pretty useless.
Reread, please:
"If you consider hurricanes over their entire life, and not just when
they make landfall, you really do see an upward trend in the power of
hurricanes--not in their frequency--but in the magnitude of the wind
speed and also in their duration." -- Kerry Emanuel
National Public Radio, Sept. 6, 2005
HTH, HAND,
-J Dubya
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| User: "J Dubya" |
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| Title: Re: Let's Blow this Myth of "Global Warming has Lead to REALLY intense Hurricanes..." Out of the Water |
24 Sep 2005 05:24:17 PM |
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=D0=CF=FEi=86=FF wrote:
[...]
Even better than "average" intensity is ACTUAL intensity,
storm by storm, decade by decade.
http://www.peterduncan.net/Hurricanes_decade.jpg
http://www.peterduncan.net/Hurricanes_decade_chart.jpg
Even better is a study by a recognized scientist (versus
a USENET crank):
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/09/15/AR200509150=
2234_pf.html
which references the Science article at
http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/reprint/309/5742/1844.pdf
Enjoy,
-J Dubya
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| User: "" |
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| Title: Re: Let's Blow this Myth of "Global Warming has Lead to REALLY intense Hurricanes..." Out of the Water |
26 Sep 2005 11:08:35 AM |
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J Dubya wrote:
=D0=CF=FEi=86=FF wrote:
[...]
Even better than "average" intensity is ACTUAL intensity,
storm by storm, decade by decade.
http://www.peterduncan.net/Hurricanes_decade.jpg
http://www.peterduncan.net/Hurricanes_decade_chart.jpg
Even better is a study by a recognized scientist
(ad hominem deleted)
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/09/15/AR2005091=
502234_pf.html
which references the Science article at
http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/reprint/309/5742/1844.pdf
Enjoy,
-J Dubya
Note that the "Science" study only covers the last 35 years.
Hurricane frequency occurs in a roughly 60 year cycle. Measuring only
the last 35 years and finding a "trend" is like measuring the daily
noon temperatures from November to the following May and discovering an
upward trend in daily temperatures. For more reliability, the
coparison should have been made between current hurricane frequency and
severity, and the corresponding frequency and severity at the same
point in the PRIOR cycle, around 1945 A.D. - A. McIntire
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| User: "=?windows-1252?Q?=A7=B3R=CA=D1=D0=CF=FEi=86=FF?=" |
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| Title: Re: Let's Blow this Myth of "Global Warming has Lead to REALLY intenseHurricanes..." Out of the Water |
23 Sep 2005 08:40:21 AM |
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§³RÊÑÐÏþi†ÿ wrote:
J Dubya wrote:
§³RÊÑÐÏþi†ÿ wrote:
Raw Data: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastint.shtml
Scatter Plot: Year vs. Hurricane Rank (from above data)
http://www.peterduncan.net/hurricane_vs_year.jpg
If we were to see an increase in the number and power of storms, you
would see more dots towards the upper left of this chart.
Sorry libs. The sky is not falling.
Sorry, Dippity, that does not constitute a statistical
analysis. Where is the linear regression? Where is the
discussion of average intensity?
Even better than "average" intensity is ACTUAL intensity, storm by
storm, decade by decade.
http://www.peterduncan.net/Hurricanes_decade.jpg
http://www.peterduncan.net/Hurricanes_decade_chart.jpg
(linear regression provided in this case b/c there does appear to be an
observable trend, and it isn't what you would expect).
Data source:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastdec.shtml
Get the raw data from NOAA, put it into Excel, and open your own eyes.
BTW: Tough to have a linear regression in a scatter plot that actually
shows NO trend, right?
Now, if your hypothesis was correct, that as we have progressed through
the last century into this one, water became warmer, and storms became
more severe and numerous, you COULD have a linear regression in that
case. However, your observation proves my point even more. There ISN'T
any trend associated with worst storms in terms of year, and as such, a
linear regression would be pretty useless.
Hypothesis: Storms have increased in frequency and intensity over the
last 150 years based on global warming.
Testable: Put raw data from NOAA into Excel and observe trends.
Sorry Charlie, your hypothesis doesn't hold water.
Here is Emanual's abstract though, in case you didn't read it:
To establish useful warning systems for hurricanes, it is necessary to
accurately predict both hurricane intensity and track. But although the
forecasting of hurricane tracks has improved over the past 30 years, the
factors that control the intensity of hurricanes are still poorly
understood, leading to almost no reliability in forecasts of hurricane
intensity evolution.
{Meaning that this is all handwaving anyway}
Efforts to improve intensity forecasts have focused almost exclusively
on characterizing the dynamical interactions between hurricanes and
their atmospheric environment. Here I use a simple numerical model to
demonstrate that, in most cases, the evolution of hurricane intensity
depends mainly on three factors: the storm's initial intensity, the
thermodynamic state of the atmosphere through which it moves, and the
heat exchange with the upper layer of the ocean under the core of the
hurricane. Such a limited number of controlling factors offers hope
that, given an accurate forecast of a hurricane's track, its intensity
can be reliably forecast using very simple models.
{I would like to see his models, and their success. This would require
historical data of several og his hurricane predictions and what their
outcomes actually were. Can you find that for me and post it up for us
to see? Your guy Emanuel at MIT has no more credibility at being a
profit than I do. What we probably DO agree on though, is over the last
150 years, the data doesn't support an increase in frequency or number
of storms}.
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