| Topic: |
Politics > Politics-USA |
| User: |
"Harry Dope" |
| Date: |
19 Jul 2005 12:06:04 PM |
| Object: |
More Democrats Unhappy With Their Vote in 2004 |
More Democrats Unhappy With Their Vote in 2004
Whoever you voted for as President in 2004, are you happy with that vote?
This is the question 7,136 respondents answered from The Polling Station
survey.
Before coming to any conclusions, realize that this poll question asks if
you were happy for the vote you cast in 2004, regardless of who it was for,
winner of loser. (This is not a question asking about the outcome of the
election.) We could assume that anyone unhappy with their vote would have
voted for the other candidate, but that is is discussion for another day.
N = 7,136 Margin of Error +/- 1.5%
........ Yes ...... No .... Undecided
Dem .... 76.4% .... 18.8% ... 4.9%
Ind .... 71.3% .... 21.4% ... 7.3%
Rep .... 89.5% .... 6.7% ... 3.8%
78.8% are happy with their vote
15.8% are not happy
5.3% are undecided
What does this mean? If you do the math out based on this poll, and the exit
polls from November 2, that means that more Democrats who likely voted for
Kerry were unhappy (16.73%) with their vote than Republicans who likely
voted for Bush were unhappy (6.23%) with theirs--that's nearly a 3:1 ratio
(2.68 to be exact).
Of course, making a broad conclusion based on comparative results of two
polls is inherently inaccurate, but from a mathematical perspective, the
difference in the happiness of the voters is not insignificant. A better
poll question in this regard would be "If you voted for Kerry, are you happy
with your vote?" and "If you voted for Bush, are you happy with your vote?"
Interesting results, nonetheless. Does this mean that those unhappy
Democrats would have voted for Bush, and those unhappy Republicans would
have voted for Kerry? Maybe, maybe not. However, in a "worst case scenario,"
if all the unhappy Democrats were the Bush voting Democrats, that still
leaves 7.8% of Kerry voting Democrats unhappy with their vote, and if all
Kerry voting Republicans were the unhappy voters, that would leave a scant
number of Bush voting Republicans unhappy with their votes.
Draw any conclusion you wish from this analysis, or make your own. Outside
of the imperfection of polls, the results seem to speak for themselves.
.
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| User: "Tim Farrow" |
|
| Title: Re: More Democrats Unhappy With Their Vote in 2004 |
19 Jul 2005 12:41:36 PM |
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If you're inferring these are Democrats who wish they voted for Bush, you're
insane.
Certainly there's plenty of republicans wishing they didn't vote for Bush.
"Harry Dope" <HD@earthlink.com> wrote in message
news:0qaDe.18258$Kp2.815351@twister.southeast.rr.com...
More Democrats Unhappy With Their Vote in 2004
Whoever you voted for as President in 2004, are you happy with that vote?
This is the question 7,136 respondents answered from The Polling Station
survey.
Before coming to any conclusions, realize that this poll question asks if
you were happy for the vote you cast in 2004, regardless of who it was
for,
winner of loser. (This is not a question asking about the outcome of the
election.) We could assume that anyone unhappy with their vote would have
voted for the other candidate, but that is is discussion for another day.
N = 7,136 Margin of Error +/- 1.5%
........ Yes ...... No .... Undecided
Dem .... 76.4% .... 18.8% ... 4.9%
Ind .... 71.3% .... 21.4% ... 7.3%
Rep .... 89.5% .... 6.7% ... 3.8%
78.8% are happy with their vote
15.8% are not happy
5.3% are undecided
What does this mean? If you do the math out based on this poll, and the
exit
polls from November 2, that means that more Democrats who likely voted for
Kerry were unhappy (16.73%) with their vote than Republicans who likely
voted for Bush were unhappy (6.23%) with theirs--that's nearly a 3:1 ratio
(2.68 to be exact).
Of course, making a broad conclusion based on comparative results of two
polls is inherently inaccurate, but from a mathematical perspective, the
difference in the happiness of the voters is not insignificant. A better
poll question in this regard would be "If you voted for Kerry, are you
happy
with your vote?" and "If you voted for Bush, are you happy with your
vote?"
Interesting results, nonetheless. Does this mean that those unhappy
Democrats would have voted for Bush, and those unhappy Republicans would
have voted for Kerry? Maybe, maybe not. However, in a "worst case
scenario,"
if all the unhappy Democrats were the Bush voting Democrats, that still
leaves 7.8% of Kerry voting Democrats unhappy with their vote, and if all
Kerry voting Republicans were the unhappy voters, that would leave a scant
number of Bush voting Republicans unhappy with their votes.
Draw any conclusion you wish from this analysis, or make your own. Outside
of the imperfection of polls, the results seem to speak for themselves.
.
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