My Election Prediction
by Steven LaTulippe
http://www.lewrockwell.com/latulippe/latulippe70.html
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Every election season, various pundits and politicians declare the
upcoming contest to be the most important one of our lifetime. The very
future of the universe, they claim, hangs in the balance. But given the
enormous inertia of American statism and the fuzzy distinctions between
the major parties, that assertion is usually pure hyperbole. No matter
which side wins, the erosion of our liberties and the growth of
government continue more or less unabated.
Nevertheless, in the particular instance of the upcoming 2006 midterm
elections, I think this clich=E9 is spot-on. In all probability, the
Republicans will suffer a crushing defeat this November, most likely
including the loss of at least one house of congress.
Before I get reams of nasty email from those unhappy with this
forecast, let me make one point absolutely clear: Predicting that the
Republicans will lose is not the same thing as believing that the
Democrats deserve to win. The Democratic Party has inflicted
unconscionable damage on our republic. Their history is replete with
militarism, statism, and socialism. They lied us into WW I, WW II,
Korea, and Vietnam. They've been indefatigable in their promotion of
ever-bigger government. They've overseen the creation of several
gargantuan and unsustainable entitlement programs, and they've
inflicted the plague of mindless political correctness on our culture.
The Democrats are, in short, a pack of shameless,
government-worshipping charlatans.
That said, due to the realities of our two-party political system, the
only way the Republicans can lose is if the Democrats win, and numerous
facts surrounding the upcoming election point to a decisive Democratic
victory.
I base my prediction on three assertions:
#1 The American people will demand accountability
If the neocons should win this election and retain control of congress,
it would set an appalling precedent for future generations. The
administration engaged in a conscious policy of lies and deception
designed to fool the American people into supporting their wars. They
stoked the people's fears and manipulated us in the most cynical
ways. These wars have left much of the Middle East a smoking ruin and
have caused the deaths of thousands of innocent people. In the process,
the neocons have run our nation to the brink of bankruptcy and have
soiled our reputation before the rest of the world. And if that were
not enough, they have exploited the situation to enrich themselves and
to gut the Constitution with a myriad of shady policies and programs
(e.g., NSA email monitoring, extra-judicial wiretaps, torture,
renditions, etc.).
It is inconceivable that they could get away with this, that there
should not be a day of reckoning. It is unimaginable that they should
maintain control of the government and win yet another election.
The American people, for history's sake, will issue a verdict from
the court of poetic justice. They will hand the Republicans a crushing
defeat this November. To do otherwise would be to reward the neocons'
schemes and set a horrifying example for future generations of aspiring
demagogues.
#2 The virtues of divided government
Describing the Republicans and the Democrats as political parties is
somewhat of a misnomer, since it implies that they harbor some sort of
transcendent philosophy that guides them in their policies and
programs.
Nothing could be further from the truth. The Republicans and Democrats
are actually more like carrion birds, like two vultures fighting over
the eyeball of a dead wildebeest. They serve as bagmen for two
antagonistic sets of special interest groups. Their sole purpose is to
wrest control of the government's machinery from the opposite party
so as to siphon as much money as possible into the pockets of their
patrons.
When viewed from this perspective, it becomes obvious why divided
government works better than one-party rule. During the 1990s, when
Clinton was president and the Republicans ran congress, the growth of
government spending was much slower than it has been in the era of
Republican dominance (despite their alleged belief in small government
and fiscal conservatism). Over the past several years, the Republicans
have embarked on a feeding frenzy of pork-barrel spending, no-bid
contracts, and outright fraud. They've used their power to suppress
investigations of malfeasance, undermine the Constitution and give free
reign to the necons' irresponsible foreign policy.
Since these excesses are becoming more apparent, even to mainstream
conservatives, I believe that the voters will return to their
preference for divided government this November.
#3 Apocalypse now
As unimaginable as it might sound, it's looking more and more like
the neocons are planning to attack Iran sometime after the next
election. Yes, our military is overstretched. Yes, we're losing wars
in Iraq and Afghanistan. Yes, we're heading over a financial cliff.
Yes, we were cynically manipulated into the last war. And yes, public
opinion has turned decisively against the Iraq occupation.
But President Bush is, by all accounts, in the grips of a messianic
dream in which he stars as the new Winston Churchill. He is the savior
who will one day be proven right. He is willing to endure vilification
(or, given his messiah complex, even enjoy it) as the personal price of
saving the world from a nuclear Iran.
The consequences of such an attack would be catastrophic. The Middle
East would explode. Our soldiers in Iraq would be engulfed in a massive
Shia uprising. Hezbollah would enter the conflict by attacking Israel.
Iran would aid the rebels in Afghanistan. The Persian Gulf's oil
could be blocked from the marketplace, causing a cataclysmic spike in
oil prices.
There is no sane reason why Iran's nuclear program should threaten us
or prompt us to attack them. Iran is wedged between several nations
with more powerful militaries than itself (such as Russia and Turkey).
Nuclear-armed Israel and Pakistan are close-by as well.
This issue is simply none of our business, and we're in no position
to fight Iran even if it were. The American people are growing weary of
endless war in the Middle East, and they'll conclude that only a
Democratic victory in November has any chance of stopping it. A
Democratic House or Senate might launch ugly and contentious
investigations into the events surrounding the Iraq War. They could
expose the neocons' lies and the propaganda campaigns, which might
even lead to the indictment of a few of the more loathsome villains.
If this happened, it might...might...stop the administration's march
to war against Iran.
Conclusion:
In many ways, our republic stands at an historic crossroads. I do not
claim that a Democratic victory would signal a return to limited
government or a saner foreign policy. Rather, I predict the people will
decide that a government divided between two warring parties would
freeze the system and avoid some of the nastier excesses of
single-party rule.
That is not exactly the same thing as having a government committed to
individual rights and the rule of law, but it offers a hope that I
believe voters will seize decisively come Election Day.
September 29, 2006
Steven LaTulippe [send him mail] is a physician currently practicing in
Ohio. He was an officer in the United States Air Force for 13 years.
Copyright =A9 2006 LewRockwell.com
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