| Topic: |
Politics > Politics-USA |
| User: |
"Senate AWOL Johnny" |
| Date: |
18 Jun 2004 03:14:20 PM |
| Object: |
Negative view about Kerry has risen sharply over the past month! |
The latest Pew Research Poll is out, and it contains very bad news indeed
for John Kerry. The Pew poll found, concerning Kerry, "negative opinions
have increased sharply, from 28% to 41%"!
John Kerry is headed in the wrong direction, at least it's the wrong
direction if he is to have any hope of winning the election.
http://people-press.org/reports/display.php3?ReportID=216
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| User: "George Leroy Tyrebiter, Jr." |
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| Title: Re: Negative view about Kerry has risen sharply over the past month! |
18 Jun 2004 08:18:07 PM |
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On Fri, 18 Jun 2004 20:14:20 GMT, "Senate AWOL Johnny"
<Part-timer_Johnny@dnc.net> wrote:
The latest Pew Research Poll is out, and it contains very bad news indeed
for John Kerry. The Pew poll found, concerning Kerry, "negative opinions
have increased sharply, from 28% to 41%"!
In the poll, there three groups. Those who wanted to vote for Bush,
for Kerry, and the undecided.
Historically, the third group votes 85 percent for the challenger.
Thus this poll has Kerry winning in the election. He gets his
percentage plus 85 percent of the undecided.
That Kerry's negatives rose since Feb is not surprising. Bush ran 70
million dollars of negative ads.
But despite that big spending, and despite how early it is in the
campaign, Kerry still wins, according to this poll.
REMEMBER - don't forget that there are THREE GROUPS here. Bush, Kerry,
Undecided. THey ALL Vote.
Count them ALL
And count the UNDECIDED as 85 percent for Kerry, since that is how in
the past they have voted.
Thus Kerry wins according to this poll.
BUt it's early.
Bush has had good news in Iraq, on jobs, and the Reagan funeral was a
boost for Repubs.
And still Bush loses?
That's fairly promising for Kerry. You would think news finally
breaking Bush's way would have helped him out.
But it seems to have done rather little.
The polls begin to be pretty predictive after the conventions. I don't
know of any evidence that before then they predict.
Do you?
John Kerry is headed in the wrong direction, at least it's the wrong
direction if he is to have any hope of winning the election.
http://people-press.org/reports/display.php3?ReportID=216
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