| Topic: |
Politics > Politics-USA |
| User: |
"JimmyD" |
| Date: |
31 Dec 2003 10:57:55 PM |
| Object: |
New Jobless Claims Lowest of Bush Tenure |
Dec 31, 10:42 AM (ET)
By JEANNINE AVERSA
WASHINGTON (AP) - New claims for jobless benefits fell last week to the
lowest level in nearly three years, a sign that America's businesses
are
feeling more confident that the economic recovery is genuine.
The Labor Department reported Wednesday that new applications filed for
unemployment insurance dropped by a seasonally adjusted 15,000 to
339,000 for the week ending Dec. 27. Last week's drop marked the third
week in a row that claims went down and left claims at their lowest
level
since Jan. 20, 2001 - President Bush's inauguration day.
The latest snapshot of the labor market suggested that businesses may
be
feeling less inclined to hand out pink slips to workers as the economy
shows
signs of gaining traction.
"There is clearly reason for optimism that we are getting on a
significant job-generation track," said
Ken Mayland, president of ClearView Economics.
On Wall Street, stocks were mixed. The Dow Jones
industrials were up about 7
points, while the Nasdaq was down around 8 points in
morning trading.
The report was better than economists were expecting. They
were forecasting a
smaller decline that would hav e pushed claims down to a
level of around 350,000.
Claims have been below 400,000 for 13 consecutive weeks,
something economists
view as a sign that the fragile labor market may be turning
a crucial corner.
The more stable four-week moving average of claims, which
smooths out week to
week fluctuations, decreased last week by 6,500 to 355,750,
the lowest level since
Feb. 10, 2001.
New claims hit a high this year of 459,000 in the middle of
April and have slowly
declined, a development cited by Federal Reserve Chairman
Alan Greenspan and
other economists who say the pace of layoffs is
stabilizing.
The labor market has displayed other signs of improvement
in
recent months. The nation's unemployment rate currently
stands
at 5.9 percent - down from a high this summer of 6.4 percent.
But job growth has been slow.
Since Bush took office, the economy has lost 2.3 million jobs, a
development that
Democrats hope to use against the president as he seeks re-election in
2004. The
Bush administration contends that stronger economic growth will
eventually lead to
more meaningful job creation on a sustained basis.
The uncertain job climate is on Americans' minds.
Consumer confidence dipped in December amid anxiety about the job
market, the
Conference Board reported Tuesday. The board's consumer confidence
index slipped
to 91.3 in December, following a surge in November to a revised figure
of 92.5, its
highest level in more than a year.
Economists believe the labor market will be the last part of the
economy to recover
even as the economy expands solidly.
The economy grew at a breakneck 8.2 percent annual rate in the third
quarter, the best performance in
nearly two decades. Analysts believe the economy slowed to a rate in
the range of around 4 percent or
5 percent in the current quarter, which would still mark a solid
showing.
Wednesday's report also showed that the number of unemployed people
collecting jobless benefits for
more than a week rose by 81,000 to 3.3 million for the week ending Dec.
20, the most recent period for
which that information is available. This suggests that jobs are still
hard to find for some workers.
Economists believe that as companies' profits improve they will feel
even more comfortable about
ramping up investment and hiring new people, two crucial ingredients to
the recovery's staying power.
http://apnews.myway.com/article/20031231/D7VPESOO0.html
What a way to end the year
.
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| User: "InsuranceBroker" |
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| Title: Re: New Jobless Claims Lowest of Bush Tenure |
01 Jan 2004 08:11:58 AM |
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Subject: New Jobless Claims Lowest of Bush Tenure
From: JimmyD
Date: 12/31/2003 11:57 PM Eastern Standard Time
Message-id: <3FF3A8D3.91A271F@starkiller.org>
Dec 31, 10:42 AM (ET)
By JEANNINE AVERSA
WASHINGTON (AP) - New claims for jobless benefits fell last week to
the
lowest level in nearly three years, a sign that America's businesses
are
feeling more confident that the economic recovery is genuine.
The Labor Department reported Wednesday that new applications filed
for
unemployment insurance dropped by a seasonally adjusted 15,000 t
to
339,000 for the week ending Dec. 27
Actually if you bother to read the report you will notice that they reported
the actual number of people who filed for unemployment insurance was 516,400.
They seasonally adjusted a quarter million people off the report headline.
This is just another case of the government report not reflecting reality.
Last week's drop marked the third
week in a row that claims went down and left claims at their lowest
level
since Jan. 20, 2001 - President Bush's inauguration day.
No it reflects the lowest reported number of claims. The actual number of
claims is almost impossible to gather because they change the numbers with
adjustments.
The latest snapshot of the labor market suggested that businesses may
be
feeling less inclined to hand out pink slips to workers as the economy
shows
signs of gaining traction.
It really does not show that at all. After years of massive firing American
employee, maybe the corporations just do not have anyone left to fire.
Doing Insurance business in the Garden State
.
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| User: "DemsHaveNoFriends" |
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| Title: Re: New Jobless Claims Lowest of Bush Tenure |
01 Jan 2004 09:18:32 AM |
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"InsuranceBroker" <insurancenj@aol.com> wrote in message
news:20040101091158.15826.00001174@mb-m21.aol.com...
Subject: New Jobless Claims Lowest of Bush Tenure
From: JimmyD
Date: 12/31/2003 11:57 PM Eastern Standard Time
Message-id: <3FF3A8D3.91A271F@starkiller.org>
Dec 31, 10:42 AM (ET)
By JEANNINE AVERSA
WASHINGTON (AP) - New claims for jobless benefits fell last week
to
the
lowest level in nearly three years, a sign that America's
businesses
are
feeling more confident that the economic recovery is genuine.
The Labor Department reported Wednesday that new applications
filed
for
unemployment insurance dropped by a seasonally adjusted 15,000 t
to
339,000 for the week ending Dec. 27
Actually if you bother to read the report you will notice that they
reported
the actual number of people who filed for unemployment insurance was
516,400.
They seasonally adjusted a quarter million people off the report headline.
This is just another case of the government report not reflecting reality.
Not at all. The same practice was followed during the Clinton Years - they
seasonally adjusted the Unemployment figures. Did the same thing during the
Carter Years too, when Unemployment hovered at around 10%. Under Bush's
leadership, the Unemployment figure is relatively low, as the LA Times
recently reported.
.
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| User: "InsuranceBroker" |
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| Title: Re: New Jobless Claims Lowest of Bush Tenure |
01 Jan 2004 09:54:28 AM |
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Subject: Re: New Jobless Claims Lowest of Bush Tenure
From: "DemsHaveNoFriends"
Date: 1/1/2004 10:18 AM Eastern Standard Time
Message-id: <cTWIb.91868$VB2.202274@attbi_s51>
"InsuranceBroker" <insurancenj@aol.com> wrote in message
news:20040101091158.15826.00001174@mb-m21.aol.com...
Subject: New Jobless Claims Lowest of Bush Tenure
From: JimmyD
Date: 12/31/2003 11:57 PM Eastern Standard Time
Message-id: <3FF3A8D3.91A271F@starkiller.org>
Dec 31, 10:42 AM (ET)
By JEANNINE AVERSA
WASHINGTON (AP) - New claims for jobless benefits fell last week
to
the
lowest level in nearly three years, a sign that America's
businesses
are
feeling more confident that the economic recovery is genuine.
The Labor Department reported Wednesday that new applications
filed
for
unemployment insurance dropped by a seasonally adjusted 15,000 t
to
339,000 for the week ending Dec. 27
Actually if you bother to read the report you will notice that they
reported
the actual number of people who filed for unemployment insurance was
516,400.
They seasonally adjusted a quarter million people off the report headline.
This is just another case of the government report not reflecting reality.
Not at all. The same practice was followed during the Clinton Years - they
seasonally adjusted the Unemployment figures.
So your arguement for presenting the present lie is that Clinton did it? I
thought you were the one that tried to make the case the Bush was better than
Clinton. I guess he really is a continuation of Clinton.
Did the same thing during the
Carter Years too, when Unemployment hovered at around 10%. Under Bush's
leadership, the Unemployment figure is relatively low, as the LA Times
recently reported.
The "reported" unemployment is low but the real number is not. BTW do not let
reality get in the way of your holy war. The BOL has had many revisions.
Reagan gutted the BOL and they made major revision to the collection and
processing of the numbers. In 1996 and again in 1999 they also had significate
revisions to the numbers.
How close to reality is the numbers.
Lets see. The actual number of people who filed unemployment claims last week
was 516,400. The government processed report has about a quarter million less.
Can you explain that?
Doing Insurance business in the Garden State
.
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| User: "DemsHaveNoFriends" |
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| Title: Re: New Jobless Claims Lowest of Bush Tenure |
01 Jan 2004 10:46:30 AM |
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"InsuranceBroker" <insurancenj@aol.com> wrote in message
news:20040101105428.15826.00001189@mb-m21.aol.com...
Subject: Re: New Jobless Claims Lowest of Bush Tenure
From: "DemsHaveNoFriends"
Date: 1/1/2004 10:18 AM Eastern Standard Time
Message-id: <cTWIb.91868$VB2.202274@attbi_s51>
"InsuranceBroker" <insurancenj@aol.com> wrote in message
news:20040101091158.15826.00001174@mb-m21.aol.com...
Subject: New Jobless Claims Lowest of Bush Tenure
From: JimmyD
Date: 12/31/2003 11:57 PM Eastern Standard Time
Message-id: <3FF3A8D3.91A271F@starkiller.org>
Dec 31, 10:42 AM (ET)
By JEANNINE AVERSA
WASHINGTON (AP) - New claims for jobless benefits fell last
week
to
the
lowest level in nearly three years, a sign that America's
businesses
are
feeling more confident that the economic recovery is genuine.
The Labor Department reported Wednesday that new applications
filed
for
unemployment insurance dropped by a seasonally adjusted 15,000
t
to
339,000 for the week ending Dec. 27
Actually if you bother to read the report you will notice that they
reported
the actual number of people who filed for unemployment insurance was
516,400.
They seasonally adjusted a quarter million people off the report
headline.
This is just another case of the government report not reflecting
reality.
Not at all. The same practice was followed during the Clinton Years -
they
seasonally adjusted the Unemployment figures.
So your arguement for presenting the present lie is that Clinton did it?
No, because it's not "a lie". But it IS being measured the same way it was
measured during the Clinton Years. THAT is my argument.
And obviously you can't deal with that argument.
.
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| User: "InsuranceBroker" |
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| Title: Re: New Jobless Claims Lowest of Bush Tenure |
01 Jan 2004 11:41:50 AM |
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Subject: Re: New Jobless Claims Lowest of Bush Tenure
From: "DemsHaveNoFriends"
Date: 1/1/2004 11:46 AM Eastern Standard Time
Message-id: <G9YIb.92331$VB2.202875@attbi_s51>
"InsuranceBroker" <insurancenj@aol.com> wrote in message
news:20040101105428.15826.00001189@mb-m21.aol.com...
Subject: Re: New Jobless Claims Lowest of Bush Tenure
From: "DemsHaveNoFriends"
Date: 1/1/2004 10:18 AM Eastern Standard Time
Message-id: <cTWIb.91868$VB2.202274@attbi_s51>
"InsuranceBroker" <insurancenj@aol.com> wrote in message
news:20040101091158.15826.00001174@mb-m21.aol.com...
Subject: New Jobless Claims Lowest of Bush Tenure
From: JimmyD
Date: 12/31/2003 11:57 PM Eastern Standard Time
Message-id: <3FF3A8D3.91A271F@starkiller.org>
Dec 31, 10:42 AM (ET)
By JEANNINE AVERSA
WASHINGTON (AP) - New claims for jobless benefits fell last
week
to
the
lowest level in nearly three years, a sign that America's
businesses
are
feeling more confident that the economic recovery is genuine.
The Labor Department reported Wednesday that new applications
filed
for
unemployment insurance dropped by a seasonally adjusted 15,000
t
to
339,000 for the week ending Dec. 27
Actually if you bother to read the report you will notice that they
reported
the actual number of people who filed for unemployment insurance was
516,400.
They seasonally adjusted a quarter million people off the report
headline.
This is just another case of the government report not reflecting
reality.
Not at all. The same practice was followed during the Clinton Years -
they
seasonally adjusted the Unemployment figures.
So your arguement for presenting the present lie is that Clinton did it?
No, because it's not "a lie". But it IS being measured the same way it was
measured during the Clinton Years. THAT is my argument.
YOu argument is just not correct. BTW I guess you are making a case that there
is no difference between Clinton and Bush?
And obviously you can't deal with that argument.
Depends if you want to come up with a few facts on your side. You are clearly
not infomed on the matter.
Doing Insurance business in the Garden State
.
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| User: "DemsHaveNoFriends" |
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| Title: Re: New Jobless Claims Lowest of Bush Tenure |
01 Jan 2004 01:50:21 PM |
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"InsuranceBroker" <insurancenj@aol.com> wrote in message
news:20040101124150.15826.00001203@mb-m21.aol.com...
So your arguement for presenting the present lie is that Clinton did
it?
No, because it's not "a lie". But it IS being measured the same way it
was
measured during the Clinton Years. THAT is my argument.
YOu argument is just not correct.
Yes it is.
And obviously you can't deal with that argument.
Depends if you want to come up with a few facts on your side. You are
clearly
not infomed on the matter.
It was YOU who claimed that somehow the Unemployment Rate is measured
differently now than it was during the Clinton Years.
It is not. It is being measured the same way it was measured during the
Clinton Years.
.
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| User: "InsuranceBroker" |
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| Title: Re: New Jobless Claims Lowest of Bush Tenure |
01 Jan 2004 02:00:49 PM |
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Subject: Re: New Jobless Claims Lowest of Bush Tenure
From: "DemsHaveNoFriends"
Date: 1/1/2004 2:50 PM Eastern Standard Time
Message-id: <1S_Ib.23999$I07.59501@attbi_s53>
It was YOU who claimed that somehow the Unemployment Rate is measured
differently now than it was during the Clinton Years.
It is not. It is being measured the same way it was measured during the
Clinton Years.
The method has changed in 1996 and 1998 along with several changes during the
Bush administartion. YOu might actually read the BOL pages before you post
your silly responses.
Doing Insurance business in the Garden State
.
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| User: "George Leroy Tyrebiter Jr." |
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| Title: Re: New Jobless Claims Lowest of Bush Tenure |
01 Jan 2004 11:23:05 AM |
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On Thu, 01 Jan 2004 15:18:32 GMT, "DemsHaveNoFriends"
<DemLosers@dnc.com> wrote:
"InsuranceBroker" <insurancenj@aol.com> wrote in message
news:20040101091158.15826.00001174@mb-m21.aol.com...
Subject: New Jobless Claims Lowest of Bush Tenure
From: JimmyD
Date: 12/31/2003 11:57 PM Eastern Standard Time
Message-id: <3FF3A8D3.91A271F@starkiller.org>
Dec 31, 10:42 AM (ET)
By JEANNINE AVERSA
WASHINGTON (AP) - New claims for jobless benefits fell last week
to
the
lowest level in nearly three years, a sign that America's
businesses
are
feeling more confident that the economic recovery is genuine.
The Labor Department reported Wednesday that new applications
filed
for
unemployment insurance dropped by a seasonally adjusted 15,000 t
to
339,000 for the week ending Dec. 27
Actually if you bother to read the report you will notice that they
reported
the actual number of people who filed for unemployment insurance was
516,400.
They seasonally adjusted a quarter million people off the report headline.
This is just another case of the government report not reflecting reality.
Not at all. The same practice was followed during the Clinton Years - they
seasonally adjusted the Unemployment figures. Did the same thing during the
Carter Years too, when Unemployment hovered at around 10%.
It was ten percent in the Reagan years, not the Carter years. 1983 and
1984.
Carter took over with unemployment rate at about nine percent and
steadily decreased it to about six percent, then had risen to about
seven percent when he left office.
That's excellent, when you consider that all the world was still
suffering from the oil embargo, and the US fed had engineered a huge
contraction of the money supply.
I think under Carter that US unemployment was lower than in any other
industrial nation, with the possible exception of Japan. So grading on
the curve of reaction to the oil shock, Carter was great. Interest
rates were also lower in the US than in other countries during the
Carter years, even though they were historically high.
Republicans are better at killing jobs than democrats.
At least as far back as we can determine.
Under Bush's
leadership, the Unemployment figure is relatively low, as the LA Times
recently reported.
.
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| User: "DemsHaveNoFriends" |
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| Title: Re: New Jobless Claims Lowest of Bush Tenure |
01 Jan 2004 12:03:34 PM |
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"George Leroy Tyrebiter Jr." <gltjr@cmhs.edu> wrote in message
news:2al8vvo8ljtl6agedferd770agno8hln4c@4ax.com...
Carter took over with unemployment rate at about nine percent and
steadily decreased it to about six percent, then had risen to about
seven percent when he left office.
That's excellent, when you consider that all the world was still
suffering from the oil embargo, and the US fed had engineered a huge
contraction of the money supply.
Bush now has the Unemployment Rate down to LESS than six percent, which is
REALLY excellent when you consider that America is suffering from a kamikazi
terrorist attack on the Pentagon and on the World Trade Center!
.
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| User: "InsuranceBroker" |
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| Title: Re: New Jobless Claims Lowest of Bush Tenure |
01 Jan 2004 12:17:03 PM |
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Subject: Re: New Jobless Claims Lowest of Bush Tenure
From: "DemsHaveNoFriends"
Date: 1/1/2004 1:03 PM Eastern Standard Time
Message-id: <WhZIb.721546$Fm2.621200@attbi_s04>
"George Leroy Tyrebiter Jr." <gltjr@cmhs.edu> wrote in message
news:2al8vvo8ljtl6agedferd770agno8hln4c@4ax.com...
Carter took over with unemployment rate at about nine percent and
steadily decreased it to about six percent, then had risen to about
seven percent when he left office.
That's excellent, when you consider that all the world was still
suffering from the oil embargo, and the US fed had engineered a huge
contraction of the money supply.
Bush now has the Unemployment Rate down to LESS than six percent, which is
REALLY excellent when you consider that America is suffering from a kamikazi
terrorist attack on the Pentagon and on the World Trade Center!
Actually Carter got the unemployment rate down by creating jobs. Bush has
created new methods to report unemployment to lower the rate.
There has not been one week under bush that new claims for unemployment has
been below 300,000 people. We will never have zero people not losing there job
but 300,000 every week is a big number.
Doing Insurance business in the Garden State
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| User: "DemsHaveNoFriends" |
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| Title: Re: New Jobless Claims Lowest of Bush Tenure |
01 Jan 2004 01:50:22 PM |
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"InsuranceBroker" <insurancenj@aol.com> wrote in message
news:20040101131703.15826.00001206@mb-m21.aol.com...
Subject: Re: New Jobless Claims Lowest of Bush Tenure
From: "DemsHaveNoFriends"
Date: 1/1/2004 1:03 PM Eastern Standard Time
Message-id: <WhZIb.721546$Fm2.621200@attbi_s04>
"George Leroy Tyrebiter Jr." <gltjr@cmhs.edu> wrote in message
news:2al8vvo8ljtl6agedferd770agno8hln4c@4ax.com...
Carter took over with unemployment rate at about nine percent and
steadily decreased it to about six percent, then had risen to about
seven percent when he left office.
That's excellent, when you consider that all the world was still
suffering from the oil embargo, and the US fed had engineered a huge
contraction of the money supply.
Bush now has the Unemployment Rate down to LESS than six percent, which
is
REALLY excellent when you consider that America is suffering from a
kamikazi
terrorist attack on the Pentagon and on the World Trade Center!
Actually Carter got the unemployment rate down by creating jobs. Bush has
created new methods to report unemployment to lower the rate.
Nope. The Unemployment Rate is measured the same way it was measured during
the Clinton Years.
.
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| User: "InsuranceBroker" |
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| Title: Re: New Jobless Claims Lowest of Bush Tenure |
01 Jan 2004 01:59:27 PM |
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Subject: Re: New Jobless Claims Lowest of Bush Tenure
From: "DemsHaveNoFriends"
Date: 1/1/2004 2:50 PM Eastern Standard Time
Message-id: <2S_Ib.188013$8y1.597748@attbi_s52>
"InsuranceBroker" <insurancenj@aol.com> wrote in message
news:20040101131703.15826.00001206@mb-m21.aol.com...
Subject: Re: New Jobless Claims Lowest of Bush Tenure
From: "DemsHaveNoFriends"
Date: 1/1/2004 1:03 PM Eastern Standard Time
Message-id: <WhZIb.721546$Fm2.621200@attbi_s04>
"George Leroy Tyrebiter Jr." <gltjr@cmhs.edu> wrote in message
news:2al8vvo8ljtl6agedferd770agno8hln4c@4ax.com...
Carter took over with unemployment rate at about nine percent and
steadily decreased it to about six percent, then had risen to about
seven percent when he left office.
That's excellent, when you consider that all the world was still
suffering from the oil embargo, and the US fed had engineered a huge
contraction of the money supply.
Bush now has the Unemployment Rate down to LESS than six percent, which
is
REALLY excellent when you consider that America is suffering from a
kamikazi
terrorist attack on the Pentagon and on the World Trade Center!
Actually Carter got the unemployment rate down by creating jobs. Bush has
created new methods to report unemployment to lower the rate.
Nope. The Unemployment Rate is measured the same way it was measured during
the Clinton Years.
No it is not. If you care to post the BOL page that supports your postion, I
would be will to read it. I am sure that you would be interested in reading
the method change in 1996 and the method change in 1999 along with several
method changes during the Bush administration.
Doing Insurance business in the Garden State
.
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| User: "George Leroy Tyrebiter Jr." |
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| Title: Re: New Jobless Claims Lowest of Bush Tenure |
01 Jan 2004 02:52:28 PM |
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On Thu, 01 Jan 2004 18:03:34 GMT, "DemsHaveNoFriends"
<DemLosers@dnc.com> wrote:
"George Leroy Tyrebiter Jr." <gltjr@cmhs.edu> wrote in message
news:2al8vvo8ljtl6agedferd770agno8hln4c@4ax.com...
Carter took over with unemployment rate at about nine percent and
steadily decreased it to about six percent, then had risen to about
seven percent when he left office.
That's excellent, when you consider that all the world was still
suffering from the oil embargo, and the US fed had engineered a huge
contraction of the money supply.
Bush now has the Unemployment Rate down to LESS than six percent, which is
REALLY excellent when you consider that America is suffering from a kamikazi
terrorist attack on the Pentagon and on the World Trade Center!
We can test your theory. Is unemployment high because of things which
those would influence, or is unemployment high across the board?
In other words, is the unemployment problem limited to transportation,
tourism to NY, or is it broad?
Indeed, insurance proceeds often increase employment after an insured
disaster. Because of all the rebuilding.
So it's a sensible theory, but I doubt it's correct.
And we could find out if it's plausible.
OF course, unemployment during Republican Presidents since 1946 has
averaged something above six percent, so it sounds to me that Bush is
just delivering the expected Republiacan President yield of high
unemployment.
Compared to the 4.8 percent which Dem Presidents have averaged since
1946.
That seems the simpler and more plausible explanation this time.
.
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| User: "Brooks Gregory" |
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| Title: Re: New Jobless Claims Lowest of Bush Tenure |
01 Jan 2004 03:24:48 PM |
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"George Leroy Tyrebiter Jr." <gltjr@cmhs.edu> wrote in message
news:so19vv4rj1a7s32hgft6p1muqgqjmh4jo2@4ax.com...
On Thu, 01 Jan 2004 18:03:34 GMT, "DemsHaveNoFriends"
<DemLosers@dnc.com> wrote:
"George Leroy Tyrebiter Jr." <gltjr@cmhs.edu> wrote in message
news:2al8vvo8ljtl6agedferd770agno8hln4c@4ax.com...
Carter took over with unemployment rate at about nine percent and
steadily decreased it to about six percent, then had risen to about
seven percent when he left office.
That's excellent, when you consider that all the world was still
suffering from the oil embargo, and the US fed had engineered a huge
contraction of the money supply.
Bush now has the Unemployment Rate down to LESS than six percent, which
is
REALLY excellent when you consider that America is suffering from a
kamikazi
terrorist attack on the Pentagon and on the World Trade Center!
We can test your theory. Is unemployment high because of things which
those would influence, or is unemployment high across the board?
In other words, is the unemployment problem limited to transportation,
tourism to NY, or is it broad?
Indeed, insurance proceeds often increase employment after an insured
disaster. Because of all the rebuilding.
So it's a sensible theory, but I doubt it's correct.
And we could find out if it's plausible.
OF course, unemployment during Republican Presidents since 1946 has
averaged something above six percent, so it sounds to me that Bush is
just delivering the expected Republiacan President yield of high
unemployment.
Compared to the 4.8 percent which Dem Presidents have averaged since
1946.
That seems the simpler and more plausible explanation this time.
You can test all the theories you wish but when it comes down to body in the
booth, the only thing they will remember about employment, is that they have
a job and big tax cut and whatever else they were promised for the next 4
years. If you want to test that theory, my old firm has a few openings.
--
If you can't protest with a voter registration
card, what makes you think you have any
clout with your opinions?
Brooks Gregory
.
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| User: "George Leroy Tyrebiter Jr." |
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| Title: Re: New Jobless Claims Lowest of Bush Tenure |
01 Jan 2004 06:55:36 PM |
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On Thu, 01 Jan 2004 21:24:48 GMT, "Brooks Gregory"
<brooksgregory@sbctelco.com> wrote:
"George Leroy Tyrebiter Jr." <gltjr@cmhs.edu> wrote in message
news:so19vv4rj1a7s32hgft6p1muqgqjmh4jo2@4ax.com...
On Thu, 01 Jan 2004 18:03:34 GMT, "DemsHaveNoFriends"
<DemLosers@dnc.com> wrote:
"George Leroy Tyrebiter Jr." <gltjr@cmhs.edu> wrote in message
news:2al8vvo8ljtl6agedferd770agno8hln4c@4ax.com...
Carter took over with unemployment rate at about nine percent and
steadily decreased it to about six percent, then had risen to about
seven percent when he left office.
That's excellent, when you consider that all the world was still
suffering from the oil embargo, and the US fed had engineered a huge
contraction of the money supply.
Bush now has the Unemployment Rate down to LESS than six percent, which
is
REALLY excellent when you consider that America is suffering from a
kamikazi
terrorist attack on the Pentagon and on the World Trade Center!
We can test your theory. Is unemployment high because of things which
those would influence, or is unemployment high across the board?
In other words, is the unemployment problem limited to transportation,
tourism to NY, or is it broad?
Indeed, insurance proceeds often increase employment after an insured
disaster. Because of all the rebuilding.
So it's a sensible theory, but I doubt it's correct.
And we could find out if it's plausible.
OF course, unemployment during Republican Presidents since 1946 has
averaged something above six percent, so it sounds to me that Bush is
just delivering the expected Republiacan President yield of high
unemployment.
Compared to the 4.8 percent which Dem Presidents have averaged since
1946.
That seems the simpler and more plausible explanation this time.
You can test all the theories you wish but when it comes down to body in the
booth, the only thing they will remember about employment, is that they have
a job and big tax cut and whatever else they were promised for the next 4
years. If you want to test that theory, my old firm has a few openings.
That sounds reasonable to me.
Of course, fewer will remember that they have a job in the 2004 booths
than remembered that in the 2000 booths. Since the number of workers
will be down by a million or two.
And there will be a million or two more looking for work in 2004 than
were looking for work in 2000.
The current rate fo job creation is so anemic, it's very unlikely to
get us back to where we were when President Bush last ran..
So what you are saying is that President Bush is in big trouble?
Could be.
How did Hoover do in his reelection bid?
That's the last historical example of that pattern.
And I guess you're right. The last time folks went to booths and fewer
of them had jobs than in the previous election, Hoover lost big time.
Ok, you may be right.
But I think it will be close.
.
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| User: "Bob" |
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| Title: Re: New Jobless Claims Lowest of Bush Tenure |
01 Jan 2004 09:33:05 PM |
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"George Leroy Tyrebiter Jr." <gltjr@cmhs.edu> wrote in message
news:80g9vvo6tu3pstnbkefedf75jkn9nvq7qk@4ax.com...
And I guess you're right. The last time folks went to booths and fewer
of them had jobs than in the previous election, Hoover lost big time.
I would guess that domestic policy will take a back seat to foreign policy in
the next election.
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| User: "PagCal" |
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| Title: Re: New Jobless Claims Lowest of Bush Tenure |
01 Jan 2004 06:40:57 AM |
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If you want to look at the true nature of things, instead of just
through 'Rose Collored Glasses', you've got to look at the true number
of unemployed.
For example, looking at a 26 week window, the time you can stay on
unemployment, is false, because people drop off the end of the window,
but are still unemployed.
JimmyD wrote:
Dec 31, 10:42 AM (ET)
By JEANNINE AVERSA
WASHINGTON (AP) - New claims for jobless benefits fell last week to the
lowest level in nearly three years, a sign that America's businesses
are
feeling more confident that the economic recovery is genuine.
The Labor Department reported Wednesday that new applications filed for
unemployment insurance dropped by a seasonally adjusted 15,000 to
339,000 for the week ending Dec. 27. Last week's drop marked the third
week in a row that claims went down and left claims at their lowest
level
since Jan. 20, 2001 - President Bush's inauguration day.
The latest snapshot of the labor market suggested that businesses may
be
feeling less inclined to hand out pink slips to workers as the economy
shows
signs of gaining traction.
"There is clearly reason for optimism that we are getting on a
significant job-generation track," said
Ken Mayland, president of ClearView Economics.
On Wall Street, stocks were mixed. The Dow Jones
industrials were up about 7
points, while the Nasdaq was down around 8 points in
morning trading.
The report was better than economists were expecting. They
were forecasting a
smaller decline that would hav e pushed claims down to a
level of around 350,000.
Claims have been below 400,000 for 13 consecutive weeks,
something economists
view as a sign that the fragile labor market may be turning
a crucial corner.
The more stable four-week moving average of claims, which
smooths out week to
week fluctuations, decreased last week by 6,500 to 355,750,
the lowest level since
Feb. 10, 2001.
New claims hit a high this year of 459,000 in the middle of
April and have slowly
declined, a development cited by Federal Reserve Chairman
Alan Greenspan and
other economists who say the pace of layoffs is
stabilizing.
The labor market has displayed other signs of improvement
in
recent months. The nation's unemployment rate currently
stands
at 5.9 percent - down from a high this summer of 6.4 percent.
But job growth has been slow.
Since Bush took office, the economy has lost 2.3 million jobs, a
development that
Democrats hope to use against the president as he seeks re-election in
2004. The
Bush administration contends that stronger economic growth will
eventually lead to
more meaningful job creation on a sustained basis.
The uncertain job climate is on Americans' minds.
Consumer confidence dipped in December amid anxiety about the job
market, the
Conference Board reported Tuesday. The board's consumer confidence
index slipped
to 91.3 in December, following a surge in November to a revised figure
of 92.5, its
highest level in more than a year.
Economists believe the labor market will be the last part of the
economy to recover
even as the economy expands solidly.
The economy grew at a breakneck 8.2 percent annual rate in the third
quarter, the best performance in
nearly two decades. Analysts believe the economy slowed to a rate in
the range of around 4 percent or
5 percent in the current quarter, which would still mark a solid
showing.
Wednesday's report also showed that the number of unemployed people
collecting jobless benefits for
more than a week rose by 81,000 to 3.3 million for the week ending Dec.
20, the most recent period for
which that information is available. This suggests that jobs are still
hard to find for some workers.
Economists believe that as companies' profits improve they will feel
even more comfortable about
ramping up investment and hiring new people, two crucial ingredients to
the recovery's staying power.
http://apnews.myway.com/article/20031231/D7VPESOO0.html
What a way to end the year
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