| Topic: |
Politics > Politics-USA |
| User: |
"Captain Compassion" |
| Date: |
09 Sep 2004 02:31:19 PM |
| Object: |
New weather patterns turn Florida into a hurricane magnet |
New weather patterns turn Florida into a hurricane magnet
BY MARTIN MERZER
Knight Ridder Newspapers
MIAMI - (KRT) - Charley, Frances and Ivan. Three major hurricanes. Two
assaults on Florida already and possibly a third by next week. Get
used to it. This is the new normal.
Scientists say we are in a period of enhanced hurricane activity that
could last for decades, ending a 24-year period of below average
activity. They also say the law of averages has caught up with
Florida, with a change in atmospheric steering currents turning the
state into a hurricane magnet.
``People are suddenly alert, suddenly paying attention,'' said Stanley
Goldenberg, a meteorologist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration's hurricane research division on Virginia Key. ``They
can see now that we are in an active era. ... - People should realize
that it is very unlikely that Frances is the last storm the U.S. will
see this year.''
Which brings us to Hurricane Ivan.
Though subject to considerable error, long-range forecasts are
consistently suggesting that Ivan will strike Jamaica on Friday and
Cuba on Sunday as a vicious Category 4 hurricane. The outlook improved
slightly for South Florida, but the southern half of the state
remained in the five-day cone of probability.
When asked if Florida can endure another hurricane, Gov. Jeb Bush
pointed Tuesday to a button he wore on his shirt. It said: ``I
survived damn near everything.''
``We will survive whatever comes at us,'' he said. ``We're an
incredibly resilient state. I'm not being defiant; I'm only suggesting
we can meet this challenge.''
If Ivan hits the state, it will be the first time since 1964 that
three hurricanes smacked Florida in the same year. And September and
October tend to be among the most active months of the six-month
hurricane season that ends Nov. 30.
``The season is still young,'' said Max Mayfield, director of the
National Hurricane Center in West Miami-Dade County. ``It certainly
seems from my perspective that we're in the active period that has
been predicted. The only surprise is that Florida hasn't been hit more
often in the last few years.''
A sobering thought: Between 1941 and 1950, seven major hurricanes -
with winds higher than 110 mph - attacked Florida. ``And that doesn't
include the other less powerful hurricanes,'' Goldenberg said. That
10-year period fell in the middle of a cycle of heightened activity
that began in 1926 and persisted until 1970.
Now, the combination of complacency bred during a long lull between
1971 and 1994, the new hyperactivity since 1995 and the ongoing
mega-development of Florida's coasts frightens emergency managers and
scientists.
``The implications are much-increased damage when storms make
landfall,'' Goldenberg said, ``and the potential for major loss of
life in the event of an evacuation foul-up during a rapidly
intensifying storm.''
He has more than academic interest in this. Goldenberg and his family
were nearly killed when Hurricane Andrew crushed their South
Miami-Dade home in 1992.
Research he later conducted with NOAA scientist Chris Landsea, private
expert William Gray and others found distinct patterns of low-activity
hurricane periods and high-activity periods, each of which endured for
decades. These patterns, unrelated to the current concern over global
warming, are caused by regular cycles of oceanic and atmospheric
phenomena, such as unusually warm water in hurricane breeding grounds.
One period of ``hyperactivity'' ended in 1970 and was followed by a
24-year lull. The new period of heightened activity began in 1995 and
could last for another 10 to 30 years, according to their report,
which was peer-reviewed and published in 2001 in the prestigious
journal Science.
In the last few years, and particularly this year, the depressing
statistics related to the number, power and duration of storms appear
to verify the report's depressing conclusions, especially when major
hurricanes are considered.
This is significant because, though relatively few in number, major
hurricanes - Category 3 or higher - cause 80 percent of all damage
from tropical weather.
``We're not talking about stronger hurricanes than in the past,''
Goldenberg said. ``We're talking about more of the stronger
hurricanes.''
The long-term average, including relatively quiet periods and busy
periods, is 2.6 major hurricanes a year.
Between 1971 and 1994, only four years had more than two major
hurricanes and none had more than three. Between 1995 and 2003, a much
shorter period, seven years had three or more major hurricanes.
And we've already had four major storms this year - Alex, Charley,
Frances and Ivan.
All the other numbers tell the same tale: total storms, total
strength, total duration, Caribbean hurricanes, October and November
hurricanes, each at least 100 percent - in some cases 500 or 1,000
percent - higher since the lull.
``That's a humongous increase,'' Goldenberg said. ``This is striking.
This is not a little signal. It would be like saying the average
temperature is 15 degrees warmer than last summer. It's huge. It's
huge.''
Worse, atmospheric steering currents have changed to our disadvantage.
During the beginning of this active period, a persistent and
beneficial bend in the jetstream carried hurricanes away from Florida.
Now, that phenomenon had disappeared, replaced by a persistent ridge
of high pressure over the Atlantic that is pushing them toward
Florida.
What can you do?
Only one thing: Prepare.
``People should realize that, active year or slow year, we can still
get hit,'' Goldenberg said. ``Remember, Andrew hit during a
below-average year. The higher activity is just all the more reason to
remind people that they can't let their guard down.''
(Herald correspondent Mary Ellen Klas contributed to this report.)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
"John Kerry gave the enemy for free what I and many of my comrades in
North Viet Nam prison camps took torture to avoid saying." -- Paul
Galanti POW Jan. 1966 - Feb. 1973
"Long term commitment in relationships is only necessary because it takes
so damn long to raise children. Marriage may well be some kind of trick
to keep the males around beyond sexual satiation." -- Captain Compassion
"Progress is the increasing control of the environment by life.
--Will Durant
Joseph R. Darancette
res0mp8t@NOSPAMverizon.net
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| User: "Stuart Warren" |
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| Title: Re: New weather patterns turn Florida into a hurricane magnet |
09 Sep 2004 02:39:28 PM |
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"Captain Compassion" <res0mp8t@NOSPAMverizon.net> wrote in message
news:5fa1k0lbqm3e2sndgccb9rsqo2n3muthah@4ax.com...
New weather patterns turn Florida into a hurricane magnet
Sounds like its time to stop building houses with toothpicks.
Stuart "I live in a concrete fortress" Warren
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| User: "Eric da Red" |
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| Title: Re: New weather patterns turn Florida into a hurricane magnet |
09 Sep 2004 04:17:51 PM |
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In article <chqbc7$qp7$1@news.ks.uiuc.edu>,
Stuart Warren <wwarren@uiuc.edu> wrote:
"Captain Compassion" <res0mp8t@NOSPAMverizon.net> wrote in message
news:5fa1k0lbqm3e2sndgccb9rsqo2n3muthah@4ax.com...
New weather patterns turn Florida into a hurricane magnet
Sounds like its time to stop building houses with toothpicks.
Stuart "I live in a concrete fortress" Warren
I hope you and your fortress don't reside in earthquake country.
Eric,
living in a wood-frame home in earthquake country.
--
Quote Of The Week: "We are here to affirm that when Americans stand up
and speak their minds and say America can do better, that is not a
challenge to patriotism; it is the heart and soul of patriotism."
-- John Kerry
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| User: "Eric da Red" |
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| Title: Re: New weather patterns turn Florida into a hurricane magnet |
09 Sep 2004 04:16:34 PM |
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In article <5fa1k0lbqm3e2sndgccb9rsqo2n3muthah@4ax.com>,
Captain Compassion <res0mp8t@NOSPAMverizon.net> wrote:
New weather patterns turn Florida into a hurricane magnet
Knight Ridder Newspapers
MIAMI - (KRT) - Charley, Frances and Ivan. Three major hurricanes. Two
assaults on Florida already and possibly a third by next week. Get
used to it. This is the new normal.
It's the new normal for late summer, 2004.
Beyond that ...
When asked if Florida can endure another hurricane, Gov. Jeb Bush
pointed Tuesday to a button he wore on his shirt. It said: ``I
survived damn near everything.''
Let's see him survive melting Antarctic ice caps and a rise in sea
level of several feet.
A sobering thought: Between 1941 and 1950, seven major hurricanes -
with winds higher than 110 mph - attacked Florida. ``And that doesn't
include the other less powerful hurricanes,'' Goldenberg said. That
10-year period fell in the middle of a cycle of heightened activity
that began in 1926 and persisted until 1970.
Now, the combination of complacency bred during a long lull between
1971 and 1994, the new hyperactivity since 1995 and the ongoing
mega-development of Florida's coasts frightens emergency managers and
scientists.
The problem is less an increased frequency of hurricanes (if it is
really happening) than an increased population in hurricane-prone
areas.
--
Quote Of The Week: "We are here to affirm that when Americans stand up
and speak their minds and say America can do better, that is not a
challenge to patriotism; it is the heart and soul of patriotism."
-- John Kerry
.
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