| Topic: |
Politics > Politics-USA |
| User: |
"K C" |
| Date: |
20 Oct 2004 09:56:05 AM |
| Object: |
Newest Pres Polls - truth in news reporting |
This is two weeks before the election, and the polls are doing their
spin again. Every election in my life the polls have missed the mark
(to the DNC side) by over 10 percent (well above margin of
error)....even polls taken the day before the election. I fully
expect this to occur again, so here is where the polls are now. I
will update (reply to) this right before the election and after the
election to show how much the news you are to "trust" got it wrong,
yet again.
Democracy Corps Poll - 10/17-18/04 Bush 47 Kerry 50 Nader 1 (Kerry
by 3)
Fox News Poll - 10/17-18/04 Bush 49 Kerry 42 Nader 2 (Bush by 7)
NBC/ Wall Street Journal - 10/16-18/04 Bush 48 Kerry 48 Nader 1 (Tie)
CNN / USA Today / Gallup - 2004 Oct 14-16 Bush 52 Kerry 44 Nader 1
(Bush by 8)
Reuters/ Zogby - Oct. 17- 19 Bush 46 Kerry 46 Nader 1 (Tie)
I think the most telling info is the difference between the polls
themselves. The difference from one polls to the next is greater than
the margin of error of any of the polls.
K.C.
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| User: "Richard Lawson" |
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| Title: Re: Newest Pres Polls - truth in news reporting |
20 Oct 2004 10:23:04 AM |
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"K C" wrote:
Every election in my life the polls have missed the mark
(to the DNC side) by over 10 percent (well above margin of
error)....
Are you less than four years old?
Last election, Rasmussen (then called Portrait of America) gave Bush an 8%
lead over Gore on the day before the election. Gore actually won the
popular vote (and lost the electoral vote). Rasmussen never explained why
his polls were so wildly inaccurate. He quietly shut down Portrait of
America and recreated himself four years later as Rasmussen Reports.
So, polls can be inaccurate on either side - Democrat or Republican. This
just goes to show that polling is an art more than a science, and numbers
can be massaged to produce any likely output. Four years ago, all the polls
but one (Zogby, as it turns out, got it exactly right) had Bush winning the
popular vote, and they were all wrong - Gore won the popular vote.
That means that while polls can be helpful in pinpointing close races, they
are far from an accurate predictor. All we can say for certain is that the
vote in Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida is likely to be close. The polls
also show us that, for example, Wyoming is definitely going to Bush and
Massachusetts is definitely going to Kerry. When the polls show huge leads,
that's a sure thing.
But when the polls show one candidate or another leading by one or two or
three points, all it means is that vote will be close. But to say that Bush
will definitely win Florida because the polls show him with a 2% lead is
incredibly naive. Polls aren't *that* accurate and likely never will be.
-Richard
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| User: "Rich" |
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| Title: Re: Newest Pres Polls - truth in news reporting |
20 Oct 2004 03:43:46 PM |
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"Richard Lawson" <nouma@msn.com> wrote in message
news:cl5vso01skf@news4.newsguy.com...
"K C" wrote:
Every election in my life the polls have missed the mark
(to the DNC side) by over 10 percent (well above margin of
error)....
Are you less than four years old?
Last election, Rasmussen (then called Portrait of America) gave Bush an 8%
lead over Gore on the day before the election. Gore actually won the
popular vote (and lost the electoral vote). Rasmussen never explained why
his polls were so wildly inaccurate. He quietly shut down Portrait of
America and recreated himself four years later as Rasmussen Reports.
So, polls can be inaccurate on either side - Democrat or Republican. This
just goes to show that polling is an art more than a science, and numbers
can be massaged to produce any likely output. Four years ago, all the
polls
but one (Zogby, as it turns out, got it exactly right) had Bush winning
the
popular vote, and they were all wrong - Gore won the popular vote.
That means that while polls can be helpful in pinpointing close races,
they
are far from an accurate predictor. All we can say for certain is that
the
vote in Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida is likely to be close. The polls
also show us that, for example, Wyoming is definitely going to Bush and
Massachusetts is definitely going to Kerry. When the polls show huge
leads,
that's a sure thing.
But when the polls show one candidate or another leading by one or two or
three points, all it means is that vote will be close. But to say that
Bush
will definitely win Florida because the polls show him with a 2% lead is
incredibly naive. Polls aren't *that* accurate and likely never will be.
-Richard
The polls use different methods and make different assumptions about how
many republicans and dems there are. Other things figure in as well. In
short, they are measuring different things. Who's measuring how the ACTUAL
results will be? I don't know. Maybe Zogby.
-Rich
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| User: "Docky Wocky" |
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| Title: Re: Newest Pres Polls - truth in news reporting |
20 Oct 2004 10:13:01 PM |
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Rasmussen never successfully explained anything.
He simply disappeared when his first con failed to put up, so he shut up.
Being a professional con-man, he recreated himself three and a half years
later as Rasmussen Reports.
If we can just keep the Democrats from emptying the cemetaries when the
polls open, there should be no repeats of any majority of a popular vote.
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| User: "Rich" |
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| Title: Re: Newest Pres Polls - truth in news reporting |
21 Oct 2004 07:20:10 AM |
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"Docky Wocky" <mrchuck@lst.net> wrote in message
news:1PFdd.3722$7d7.2962@trnddc04...
Rasmussen never successfully explained anything.
He simply disappeared when his first con failed to put up, so he shut up.
Being a professional con-man, he recreated himself three and a half years
later as Rasmussen Reports.
If we can just keep the Democrats from emptying the cemetaries when the
polls open, there should be no repeats of any majority of a popular vote.
It's worse than that! We have to keep the dems from getting foreign
nationals to vote. That's why they don't want any sign of the INS, police,
etc.
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| User: "RT" |
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| Title: Re: Newest Pres Polls - truth in news reporting |
20 Oct 2004 12:35:15 PM |
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"K C" wrote:
This is two weeks before the election, and the polls are doing their
spin again. Every election in my life the polls have missed the mark
(to the DNC side) by over 10 percent (well above margin of
error)....even polls taken the day before the election. I fully
expect this to occur again, so here is where the polls are now. I
will update (reply to) this right before the election and after the
election to show how much the news you are to "trust" got it wrong,
yet again.
You are just *now* figuring this out. Congrats on the epiphany!
.
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