Next troublesome missile test: Taiwan?



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Topic: Politics > Politics-USA
User: "Surfin USA"
Date: 01 Aug 2006 09:33:34 AM
Object: Next troublesome missile test: Taiwan?
from the July 31, 2006 edition
Next troublesome missile test: Taiwan?
Taiwan may be preparing to test-fire a missile in September capable of
striking - and angering - China.
By Simon Montlake | Correspondent of The Christian Science Monitor
TAIPEI, TAIWAN - As Asia grapples with the fallout from North Korea's
projectile posturing, another military flashpoint in the region - the Taiwan
Strait - is in the midst of missile tensions as well.
A private TV station reported earlier this month that Taiwan's military was
preparing to test-fire a tactical missile in September capable of striking
targets in China. While the details were sketchy and the claim was swiftly
denied by the Ministry of National Defense, they struck a chord with
analysts who have heeded the frustration among hawks in Taiwan over the
island's vulnerability in the face of China's military might, including its
expanding missile arsenal.
In the event of an imminent attack, Taiwan would be justified in launching a
preemptive strike against military targets in China, runs the hawkish
argument. This should go hand-in-hand with improved defenses on the island,
including advanced interceptor missiles and attack aircraft. "Even if we are
going to buy [US-made] Patriot missiles, we also need to develop our own
offensive missiles," says Lee Wen-chung, a government legislator.
Such attitudes present a dilemma for the US, which is reportedly urging
Taiwan to back off its missile program. US diplomacy in the region is a
balancing act between deterring China from invading Taiwan and restraining
President Chen Shui-bian on the issue of Taiwanese sovereignty. In this
context, a homegrown missile primed to strike the mainland could be a red
flag to China.
"Some of Chen's advisers clearly think Taiwan should have a land strike
capability against [China]. This is worrisome if you believe, as some
analysts do, that this is destabilizing rather than stabilizing," says Denny
Roy of the Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies in Honolulu.
Taiwan's indigenous missile program includes a cruise missile with a 1,000
kilometer (621-mile) range and an antiship missile that could reach Chinese
naval bases. But analysts say hitting targets in China would be unlikely
without satellite mapping data and precision-guidance systems.
Taiwanese defense officials declined to be interviewed. A recent government
review paper doesn't mention offensive missiles, but spells out Taiwan's
"active defense" policy. "We want to ensure our defensive capacity to make
China realize the cost of solving the Taiwan issue with military force would
be higher than it expects," it says.
Since 2001, Taiwan's politicians have sparred over a US offer to sell arms.
Valued between $10 billion and $19 billion, the deal was designed to shore
up defenses against a rapidly modernizing Chinese army, but has been
criticized as unduly sophisticated and impractical, and bogged down amid
efforts to unseat President Chen.
Taiwan is currently targeted by around 800 Chinese-built missiles that would
reach the island within seven minutes of being launched. In March, Taiwanese
officials warned that China was expanding its arsenal and could deploy as
many as 1,800 missiles within four years.
Given this rapid build up, analysts argue that first-strike tactical
missiles are a pipe dream, and a provocation that could sully US relations.
This would be counterproductive, since Taiwanese war planning hinges on the
expectation of a US military intervention. Taiwan is already struggling to
assuage US frustrations over the stalled arms deal and the perception that
the island is a free-rider under the US security umbrella.
There may also be less to Taiwan's missile program than meets the eye, says
Andrew Yang of the Chinese Council of Advanced Policy Studies, a security
think tank in Taipei. The designs are mostly unproven, and researchers have
few resources. "The program isn't dead, it's alive and kicking, but it lacks
funding," he says.
Taiwan would have difficulty acquiring offensive weapons given the likely
pressure from China on supplier countries. And Taiwan's defense budget
amounts to only $8.4 billion. China's official defense budget is around $35
billion - with Pentagon estimates much higher.
One wild card is the run-up to Taiwan's 2008 presidential election, when
Chen is expected to turn up the rhetoric on Taiwanese sovereignty to rally
his base. That could provoke China into the kind of saber rattling that
erupted in 1996 when it test-fired missiles off the coast. But analysts say
China is now taking a more nuanced approach.
http://www.csmonitor.com/2006/0731/p07s02-woap.html
.

User: "hob"

Title: Re: Next troublesome missile test: Taiwan? 01 Aug 2006 11:04:14 AM
Unlike North Korea, Taiwan's missiles are defensive.
Same missile size, same range, same warhead - go figure.
Apparently North Korea wants to take over the world and force evil down the
throats of all freedom loving people, using its missiles; while Taiwan
builds its missiles for self-defense because it is being threatened by a
major power.
According to Bush, anyway.
--------
know thy enemy
"Surfin USA" <SurfinUSA@hotmail.com> wrote in message
news:1DJzg.182406$js3.87529@fe04.news.easynews.com...

from the July 31, 2006 edition
Next troublesome missile test: Taiwan?
Taiwan may be preparing to test-fire a missile in September capable of
striking - and angering - China.
By Simon Montlake | Correspondent of The Christian Science Monitor

TAIPEI, TAIWAN - As Asia grapples with the fallout from North Korea's
projectile posturing, another military flashpoint in the region - the

Taiwan

Strait - is in the midst of missile tensions as well.
A private TV station reported earlier this month that Taiwan's military

was

preparing to test-fire a tactical missile in September capable of striking
targets in China. While the details were sketchy and the claim was swiftly
denied by the Ministry of National Defense, they struck a chord with
analysts who have heeded the frustration among hawks in Taiwan over the
island's vulnerability in the face of China's military might, including

its

expanding missile arsenal.
In the event of an imminent attack, Taiwan would be justified in launching

a

preemptive strike against military targets in China, runs the hawkish
argument. This should go hand-in-hand with improved defenses on the

island,

including advanced interceptor missiles and attack aircraft. "Even if we

are

going to buy [US-made] Patriot missiles, we also need to develop our own
offensive missiles," says Lee Wen-chung, a government legislator.
Such attitudes present a dilemma for the US, which is reportedly urging
Taiwan to back off its missile program. US diplomacy in the region is a
balancing act between deterring China from invading Taiwan and restraining
President Chen Shui-bian on the issue of Taiwanese sovereignty. In this
context, a homegrown missile primed to strike the mainland could be a red
flag to China.
"Some of Chen's advisers clearly think Taiwan should have a land strike
capability against [China]. This is worrisome if you believe, as some
analysts do, that this is destabilizing rather than stabilizing," says

Denny

Roy of the Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies in Honolulu.
Taiwan's indigenous missile program includes a cruise missile with a 1,000
kilometer (621-mile) range and an antiship missile that could reach

Chinese

naval bases. But analysts say hitting targets in China would be unlikely
without satellite mapping data and precision-guidance systems.
Taiwanese defense officials declined to be interviewed. A recent

government

review paper doesn't mention offensive missiles, but spells out Taiwan's
"active defense" policy. "We want to ensure our defensive capacity to make
China realize the cost of solving the Taiwan issue with military force

would

be higher than it expects," it says.
Since 2001, Taiwan's politicians have sparred over a US offer to sell

arms.

Valued between $10 billion and $19 billion, the deal was designed to shore
up defenses against a rapidly modernizing Chinese army, but has been
criticized as unduly sophisticated and impractical, and bogged down amid
efforts to unseat President Chen.
Taiwan is currently targeted by around 800 Chinese-built missiles that

would

reach the island within seven minutes of being launched. In March,

Taiwanese

officials warned that China was expanding its arsenal and could deploy as
many as 1,800 missiles within four years.
Given this rapid build up, analysts argue that first-strike tactical
missiles are a pipe dream, and a provocation that could sully US

relations.

This would be counterproductive, since Taiwanese war planning hinges on

the

expectation of a US military intervention. Taiwan is already struggling to
assuage US frustrations over the stalled arms deal and the perception that
the island is a free-rider under the US security umbrella.
There may also be less to Taiwan's missile program than meets the eye,

says

Andrew Yang of the Chinese Council of Advanced Policy Studies, a security
think tank in Taipei. The designs are mostly unproven, and researchers

have

few resources. "The program isn't dead, it's alive and kicking, but it

lacks

funding," he says.
Taiwan would have difficulty acquiring offensive weapons given the likely
pressure from China on supplier countries. And Taiwan's defense budget
amounts to only $8.4 billion. China's official defense budget is around

$35

billion - with Pentagon estimates much higher.
One wild card is the run-up to Taiwan's 2008 presidential election, when
Chen is expected to turn up the rhetoric on Taiwanese sovereignty to rally
his base. That could provoke China into the kind of saber rattling that
erupted in 1996 when it test-fired missiles off the coast. But analysts

say

China is now taking a more nuanced approach.
http://www.csmonitor.com/2006/0731/p07s02-woap.html



.
User: "ouroboros rex"

Title: Re: Next troublesome missile test: Taiwan? 01 Aug 2006 11:57:31 AM
"hob" <dehoberg@comcast.net> wrote in message
news:ltCdnXMObsLT5lLZnZ2dnUVZ_qednZ2d@comcast.com...

Unlike North Korea, Taiwan's missiles are defensive.

Same missile size, same range, same warhead - go figure.

Apparently North Korea wants to take over the world and force evil down
the
throats of all freedom loving people, using its missiles; while Taiwan
builds its missiles for self-defense because it is being threatened by a
major power.

lol What's Taiwan going to do, start a war with the mainland?


According to Bush, anyway.

--------

know thy enemy


"Surfin USA" <SurfinUSA@hotmail.com> wrote in message
news:1DJzg.182406$js3.87529@fe04.news.easynews.com...

from the July 31, 2006 edition
Next troublesome missile test: Taiwan?
Taiwan may be preparing to test-fire a missile in September capable of
striking - and angering - China.
By Simon Montlake | Correspondent of The Christian Science Monitor

TAIPEI, TAIWAN - As Asia grapples with the fallout from North Korea's
projectile posturing, another military flashpoint in the region - the

Taiwan

Strait - is in the midst of missile tensions as well.
A private TV station reported earlier this month that Taiwan's military

was

preparing to test-fire a tactical missile in September capable of
striking
targets in China. While the details were sketchy and the claim was
swiftly
denied by the Ministry of National Defense, they struck a chord with
analysts who have heeded the frustration among hawks in Taiwan over the
island's vulnerability in the face of China's military might, including

its

expanding missile arsenal.
In the event of an imminent attack, Taiwan would be justified in
launching

a

preemptive strike against military targets in China, runs the hawkish
argument. This should go hand-in-hand with improved defenses on the

island,

including advanced interceptor missiles and attack aircraft. "Even if we

are

going to buy [US-made] Patriot missiles, we also need to develop our own
offensive missiles," says Lee Wen-chung, a government legislator.
Such attitudes present a dilemma for the US, which is reportedly urging
Taiwan to back off its missile program. US diplomacy in the region is a
balancing act between deterring China from invading Taiwan and
restraining
President Chen Shui-bian on the issue of Taiwanese sovereignty. In this
context, a homegrown missile primed to strike the mainland could be a red
flag to China.
"Some of Chen's advisers clearly think Taiwan should have a land strike
capability against [China]. This is worrisome if you believe, as some
analysts do, that this is destabilizing rather than stabilizing," says

Denny

Roy of the Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies in Honolulu.
Taiwan's indigenous missile program includes a cruise missile with a
1,000
kilometer (621-mile) range and an antiship missile that could reach

Chinese

naval bases. But analysts say hitting targets in China would be unlikely
without satellite mapping data and precision-guidance systems.
Taiwanese defense officials declined to be interviewed. A recent

government

review paper doesn't mention offensive missiles, but spells out Taiwan's
"active defense" policy. "We want to ensure our defensive capacity to
make
China realize the cost of solving the Taiwan issue with military force

would

be higher than it expects," it says.
Since 2001, Taiwan's politicians have sparred over a US offer to sell

arms.

Valued between $10 billion and $19 billion, the deal was designed to
shore
up defenses against a rapidly modernizing Chinese army, but has been
criticized as unduly sophisticated and impractical, and bogged down amid
efforts to unseat President Chen.
Taiwan is currently targeted by around 800 Chinese-built missiles that

would

reach the island within seven minutes of being launched. In March,

Taiwanese

officials warned that China was expanding its arsenal and could deploy as
many as 1,800 missiles within four years.
Given this rapid build up, analysts argue that first-strike tactical
missiles are a pipe dream, and a provocation that could sully US

relations.

This would be counterproductive, since Taiwanese war planning hinges on

the

expectation of a US military intervention. Taiwan is already struggling
to
assuage US frustrations over the stalled arms deal and the perception
that
the island is a free-rider under the US security umbrella.
There may also be less to Taiwan's missile program than meets the eye,

says

Andrew Yang of the Chinese Council of Advanced Policy Studies, a security
think tank in Taipei. The designs are mostly unproven, and researchers

have

few resources. "The program isn't dead, it's alive and kicking, but it

lacks

funding," he says.
Taiwan would have difficulty acquiring offensive weapons given the likely
pressure from China on supplier countries. And Taiwan's defense budget
amounts to only $8.4 billion. China's official defense budget is around

$35

billion - with Pentagon estimates much higher.
One wild card is the run-up to Taiwan's 2008 presidential election, when
Chen is expected to turn up the rhetoric on Taiwanese sovereignty to
rally
his base. That could provoke China into the kind of saber rattling that
erupted in 1996 when it test-fired missiles off the coast. But analysts

say

China is now taking a more nuanced approach.
http://www.csmonitor.com/2006/0731/p07s02-woap.html





.
User: "hob"

Title: Re: Next troublesome missile test: Taiwan? 01 Aug 2006 01:03:50 PM
"ouroboros rex" <c-bee1@NOSPUMMYitg.uiuc.edu> wrote in message
news:eao15r$si9$1@news.ks.uiuc.edu...


"hob" <dehoberg@comcast.net> wrote in message
news:ltCdnXMObsLT5lLZnZ2dnUVZ_qednZ2d@comcast.com...

Unlike North Korea, Taiwan's missiles are defensive.

Same missile size, same range, same warhead - go figure.

Apparently North Korea wants to take over the world and force evil down
the
throats of all freedom loving people, using its missiles; while Taiwan
builds its missiles for self-defense because it is being threatened by a
major power.


lol What's Taiwan going to do, start a war with the mainland?

lol What's North Korea going to do, start a war with the US?




According to Bush, anyway.

--------

know thy enemy


"Surfin USA" <SurfinUSA@hotmail.com> wrote in message
news:1DJzg.182406$js3.87529@fe04.news.easynews.com...

from the July 31, 2006 edition
Next troublesome missile test: Taiwan?
Taiwan may be preparing to test-fire a missile in September capable of
striking - and angering - China.
By Simon Montlake | Correspondent of The Christian Science Monitor

TAIPEI, TAIWAN - As Asia grapples with the fallout from North Korea's
projectile posturing, another military flashpoint in the region - the

Taiwan

Strait - is in the midst of missile tensions as well.
A private TV station reported earlier this month that Taiwan's military

was

preparing to test-fire a tactical missile in September capable of
striking
targets in China. While the details were sketchy and the claim was
swiftly
denied by the Ministry of National Defense, they struck a chord with
analysts who have heeded the frustration among hawks in Taiwan over the
island's vulnerability in the face of China's military might, including

its

expanding missile arsenal.
In the event of an imminent attack, Taiwan would be justified in
launching

a

preemptive strike against military targets in China, runs the hawkish
argument. This should go hand-in-hand with improved defenses on the

island,

including advanced interceptor missiles and attack aircraft. "Even if

we

are

going to buy [US-made] Patriot missiles, we also need to develop our

own

offensive missiles," says Lee Wen-chung, a government legislator.
Such attitudes present a dilemma for the US, which is reportedly urging
Taiwan to back off its missile program. US diplomacy in the region is a
balancing act between deterring China from invading Taiwan and
restraining
President Chen Shui-bian on the issue of Taiwanese sovereignty. In this
context, a homegrown missile primed to strike the mainland could be a

red

flag to China.
"Some of Chen's advisers clearly think Taiwan should have a land strike
capability against [China]. This is worrisome if you believe, as some
analysts do, that this is destabilizing rather than stabilizing," says

Denny

Roy of the Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies in Honolulu.
Taiwan's indigenous missile program includes a cruise missile with a
1,000
kilometer (621-mile) range and an antiship missile that could reach

Chinese

naval bases. But analysts say hitting targets in China would be

unlikely

without satellite mapping data and precision-guidance systems.
Taiwanese defense officials declined to be interviewed. A recent

government

review paper doesn't mention offensive missiles, but spells out

Taiwan's

"active defense" policy. "We want to ensure our defensive capacity to
make
China realize the cost of solving the Taiwan issue with military force

would

be higher than it expects," it says.
Since 2001, Taiwan's politicians have sparred over a US offer to sell

arms.

Valued between $10 billion and $19 billion, the deal was designed to
shore
up defenses against a rapidly modernizing Chinese army, but has been
criticized as unduly sophisticated and impractical, and bogged down

amid

efforts to unseat President Chen.
Taiwan is currently targeted by around 800 Chinese-built missiles that

would

reach the island within seven minutes of being launched. In March,

Taiwanese

officials warned that China was expanding its arsenal and could deploy

as

many as 1,800 missiles within four years.
Given this rapid build up, analysts argue that first-strike tactical
missiles are a pipe dream, and a provocation that could sully US

relations.

This would be counterproductive, since Taiwanese war planning hinges on

the

expectation of a US military intervention. Taiwan is already struggling
to
assuage US frustrations over the stalled arms deal and the perception
that
the island is a free-rider under the US security umbrella.
There may also be less to Taiwan's missile program than meets the eye,

says

Andrew Yang of the Chinese Council of Advanced Policy Studies, a

security

think tank in Taipei. The designs are mostly unproven, and researchers

have

few resources. "The program isn't dead, it's alive and kicking, but it

lacks

funding," he says.
Taiwan would have difficulty acquiring offensive weapons given the

likely

pressure from China on supplier countries. And Taiwan's defense budget
amounts to only $8.4 billion. China's official defense budget is around

$35

billion - with Pentagon estimates much higher.
One wild card is the run-up to Taiwan's 2008 presidential election,

when

Chen is expected to turn up the rhetoric on Taiwanese sovereignty to
rally
his base. That could provoke China into the kind of saber rattling that
erupted in 1996 when it test-fired missiles off the coast. But analysts

say

China is now taking a more nuanced approach.
http://www.csmonitor.com/2006/0731/p07s02-woap.html







.
User: "ouroboros rex"

Title: Re: Next troublesome missile test: Taiwan? 01 Aug 2006 01:37:16 PM
"hob" <dehoberg@comcast.net> wrote in message
news:1oudnfvcqPrLClLZnZ2dnUVZ_v6dnZ2d@comcast.com...


"ouroboros rex" <c-bee1@NOSPUMMYitg.uiuc.edu> wrote in message
news:eao15r$si9$1@news.ks.uiuc.edu...


"hob" <dehoberg@comcast.net> wrote in message
news:ltCdnXMObsLT5lLZnZ2dnUVZ_qednZ2d@comcast.com...

Unlike North Korea, Taiwan's missiles are defensive.

Same missile size, same range, same warhead - go figure.

Apparently North Korea wants to take over the world and force evil down
the
throats of all freedom loving people, using its missiles; while Taiwan
builds its missiles for self-defense because it is being threatened by
a
major power.


lol What's Taiwan going to do, start a war with the mainland?


lol What's North Korea going to do, start a war with the US?

You're not claiming NK doesn't have other enemies nearby, are you?
roflmmfao
.
User: "hob"

Title: Re: Next troublesome missile test: Taiwan? 01 Aug 2006 03:59:40 PM
"ouroboros rex" <c-bee1@NOSPUMMYitg.uiuc.edu> wrote in message
news:eao70s$uk4$1@news.ks.uiuc.edu...


"hob" <dehoberg@comcast.net> wrote in message
news:1oudnfvcqPrLClLZnZ2dnUVZ_v6dnZ2d@comcast.com...


"ouroboros rex" <c-bee1@NOSPUMMYitg.uiuc.edu> wrote in message
news:eao15r$si9$1@news.ks.uiuc.edu...


"hob" <dehoberg@comcast.net> wrote in message
news:ltCdnXMObsLT5lLZnZ2dnUVZ_qednZ2d@comcast.com...

Unlike North Korea, Taiwan's missiles are defensive.

Same missile size, same range, same warhead - go figure.

Apparently North Korea wants to take over the world and force evil

down

the
throats of all freedom loving people, using its missiles; while

Taiwan

builds its missiles for self-defense because it is being threatened

by

a
major power.


lol What's Taiwan going to do, start a war with the mainland?


lol What's North Korea going to do, start a war with the US?


You're not claiming NK doesn't have other enemies nearby, are you?
roflmmfao s

If I have my geography right, NK has China (ally) on one side, and S Korea
(sort-of-enemy-brother) on the other side, and ocean on the rest. Japan -
effectively unarmed -sits across the straits. It's only real enemy within an
enemy's striking distance of them is the US.
One major enemy.
And Taiwan only has China across the straits.
One major enemy
So who else do you see that NK has nearby as their enemy?
suwwyarof



.
User: "ouroboros rex"

Title: Re: Next troublesome missile test: Taiwan? 02 Aug 2006 02:59:45 PM
"hob" <dehoberg@comcast.net> wrote in message
news:mtidneHdPJUQXVLZnZ2dnUVZ_sGdnZ2d@comcast.com...


"ouroboros rex" <c-bee1@NOSPUMMYitg.uiuc.edu> wrote in message
news:eao70s$uk4$1@news.ks.uiuc.edu...


"hob" <dehoberg@comcast.net> wrote in message
news:1oudnfvcqPrLClLZnZ2dnUVZ_v6dnZ2d@comcast.com...


"ouroboros rex" <c-bee1@NOSPUMMYitg.uiuc.edu> wrote in message
news:eao15r$si9$1@news.ks.uiuc.edu...


"hob" <dehoberg@comcast.net> wrote in message
news:ltCdnXMObsLT5lLZnZ2dnUVZ_qednZ2d@comcast.com...

Unlike North Korea, Taiwan's missiles are defensive.

Same missile size, same range, same warhead - go figure.

Apparently North Korea wants to take over the world and force evil

down

the
throats of all freedom loving people, using its missiles; while

Taiwan

builds its missiles for self-defense because it is being threatened

by

a
major power.


lol What's Taiwan going to do, start a war with the mainland?


lol What's North Korea going to do, start a war with the US?


You're not claiming NK doesn't have other enemies nearby, are you?
roflmmfao s


If I have my geography right, NK has China (ally) on one side, and S Korea
(sort-of-enemy-brother)

lol
on the other side, and ocean on the rest. Japan -

effectively unarmed -sits across the straits. It's only real enemy within
an
enemy's striking distance of them is the US.
One major enemy.

Wrong.


And Taiwan only has China across the straits.
One major enemy

So who else do you see that NK has nearby as their enemy?

suwwyarof





.

User: "ouroboros rex"

Title: Re: Next troublesome missile test: Taiwan? 01 Aug 2006 04:20:17 PM
"hob" <dehoberg@comcast.net> wrote in message
news:mtidneHdPJUQXVLZnZ2dnUVZ_sGdnZ2d@comcast.com...


"ouroboros rex" <c-bee1@NOSPUMMYitg.uiuc.edu> wrote in message
news:eao70s$uk4$1@news.ks.uiuc.edu...


"hob" <dehoberg@comcast.net> wrote in message
news:1oudnfvcqPrLClLZnZ2dnUVZ_v6dnZ2d@comcast.com...


"ouroboros rex" <c-bee1@NOSPUMMYitg.uiuc.edu> wrote in message
news:eao15r$si9$1@news.ks.uiuc.edu...


"hob" <dehoberg@comcast.net> wrote in message
news:ltCdnXMObsLT5lLZnZ2dnUVZ_qednZ2d@comcast.com...

Unlike North Korea, Taiwan's missiles are defensive.

Same missile size, same range, same warhead - go figure.

Apparently North Korea wants to take over the world and force evil

down

the
throats of all freedom loving people, using its missiles; while

Taiwan

builds its missiles for self-defense because it is being threatened

by

a
major power.


lol What's Taiwan going to do, start a war with the mainland?


lol What's North Korea going to do, start a war with the US?


You're not claiming NK doesn't have other enemies nearby, are you?
roflmmfao s


If I have my geography right, NK has China (ally) on one side, and S Korea
(sort-of-enemy-brother) on the other side, and ocean on the rest. Japan -
effectively unarmed -sits across the straits. It's only real enemy within
an
enemy's striking distance of them is the US.
One major enemy.

And Taiwan only has China across the straits.
One major enemy

So who else do you see that NK has nearby as their enemy?

rofl That's an awful fancy demilitarized zone for a
"sort-of-enemy-brother". How stupid do you think we all are? roflmao
.







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