Intelligence report describes unraveling of Iraq
By Greg Miller, Times Staff Writer
7:07 PM PST, February 2, 2007
WASHINGTON -- Iraq is unraveling at an accelerating rate, and even if
U.S. and Iraqi forces can slow the spreading violence, the country's
fragile government is unlikely to deliver stability to its people during
the next year, according to a much-anticipated assessment by America's
intelligence agencies.
The report, titled "Prospects for Iraq's Stability: A Challenging Road
Ahead," catalogs an array of forces pulling the country apart and
concludes that to call the situation a civil war "does not adequately
capture the complexity of the conflict" because the causes of violence
are so varied.
The assessment says there are scenarios that could lead to political
progress and slow recovery, but also identifies "triggering events" that
could push Iraq into complete chaos, with neighboring nations choosing
sides in what could become a regional conflagration.
"Given the current winner-take-all attitude and sectarian animosities
infecting the political scene, Iraqi leaders will be hard-pressed to
achieve sustained political reconciliation in the (18-month) time frame
of this estimate," the report says in a blunt, bottom-line summary.
The document, known as a National Intelligence Estimate, or NIE, does
not specifically address the prospects for success of President Bush's
plan to send an extra 21,500 troop to Iraq in the coming months in an
attempt to secure Baghdad. But the report provides fodder for proponents
and critics of that plan.
It warns that the presence of U.S. troops remains "an essential
stabilizing element in Iraq," and that if there were a rapid withdrawal,
Iraqi security forces "would be unlikely to survive as a nonsectarian
national institution."
In such a scenario, neighboring countries -- including Iran and Saudi
Arabia -- "might intervene openly in the conflict; massive civilian
casualties and forced population displacement would be probable."
White House officials argued that this assessment helps make the case
for the president's plan, which is under increasing fire on Capitol Hill.
"This NIE is not at war with this ... new strategy the president has
developed," national security adviser Stephen Hadley told reporters. The
assessment, he said, "explains why the president concluded that a new
approach, a new strategy was required," and the report "generally
supports it."
But the document also notes that "even if violence is diminished" over
the next 12 to 18 months, prospects for "sustained political
reconciliation" among Iraq's warring factions are dim.
That means that even under optimistic scenarios, the nation's top
intelligence analysts do not envision meaningful stability within the
period during which Bush has said additional U.S. troops would be
deployed -- raising the prospect that the so-called "surge" might drag
on much longer than the administration has indicated.
Sen. Joseph Biden, D-Del., chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations
Committee and a contender for his party's 2008 presidential nomination,
called the report "a devastating repudiation of the president's new
tactics in Iraq."
"It plainly shows the current strategy isn't working and that there is a
dire need for a political settlement to give (breathing) room to the
Sunnis, Shia and Kurds," Biden said in a written statement. "Without it,
Iraq will slide into further chaos and violence."
The report's release comes as the Senate is engaged in a fight over
whether to approve a nonbinding resolution sponsored by Sen. John
Warner, R-Va., that criticizes the president's plan to increase troop
levels.
Most Democrats and some Republican senators have lined up behind
Warner's measure, expected to be debated next week.
But Republican Senate leaders emerged from meetings Friday making clear
that they would seek to keep the measure from coming to a vote unless
they are allowed to bring forward alternative resolutions less critical
of the president's policies. Democrats were working Friday to line up
the 60 votes needed in the 100-member Senate to thwart a GOP effort to
block the Warner resolution.
The assessment by the intelligence agencies was requested in July by
senators alarmed by the deteriorating security situation in Iraq. The
violence has worsened since then, and the NIE concluded that without
significant political and military progress in the short-term, "the
overall security situation will continue to deteriorate at rates
comparable to the latter part of 2006."
The NIE was assembled by the nation's top intelligence officials, and
represents the consensus of all 16 U.S. spy agencies. The Director of
National Intelligence took the extraordinary step of releasing the
document's key judgments publicly even as the full, 90-page classified
version was being delivered to members of Congress and senior government
officials.
In outlining the factors that have pushed Iraq toward chaos, the report
cites the "insecurity" of Shiites who were repressed for decades under
dictator Saddam Hussein, a Sunni; the refusal of Sunnis to accept their
declining political fortunes in the wake of the toppling of Saddam's
regime in early 2003; and the disappearance of a large swath of the
Iraqi "professional and entrepreneurial classes" that has fled to
neighboring countries.
The report offers a bleak assessment of the Iraqi Security Forces that
are supposed to play the leading role under Bush's plan in stemming the
violence in Baghdad and elsewhere in the country.
These forces will be "hard pressed" to carry out their responsibilities
and operate against Shia militias, the report concludes.
The reasons for this, it says, include sectarian divisions that "erode
the dependability of many units." The report adds that the forces "are
hampered by personnel and equipment shortfalls, and a number of Iraqi
units have refused to serve outside the areas where they were recruited."
That assessment seems at odds with recent assertions by U.S. military
officials, including Gen. George Casey Jr., who testified before
Congress on Thursday that "Iraqis are poised to assume responsibility
for their own security by the end of 2007, still with some level of
support from us."
Echoing concerns that Bush has raised, the NIE warns that if the United
States were to withdraw, al-Qaida "would attempt to use parts of the
country -- particularly Anbar province -- to plan increased attacks in
and outside of Iraq."
But the document does not indicate that intelligence officials believe
Iraq is poised to become an al-Qaida sanctuary -- a scenario cited
frequently by Bush as a reason for rejecting calls for setting specific
timetables for a withdrawal of U.S. forces.
The NIE is measured in its assessment of the roles played by Iran and
Syria in fostering the violence in Iraq.
The report says that Iran has fueled the fighting by providing "lethal
support" to groups of Iraqi Shia militants, and that Syria continues to
provide safe haven for displaced members of Saddam's Baath party.
Even so, the report finds that meddling by Iran and Syria "is not likely
to be a major driver of violence or the prospects for stability because
of the self-sustaining character of Iraq's internal sectarian dynamics."
Bush and other administration officials have stepped up their criticism
of the role Iran is playing in Iraq, with the president giving U.S.
forces greater latitude to pursue Iranians who are fomenting violence in
the country.
The role played by Iraq's neighbors was the subject of some dissension
among intelligence officials involved in assembling the report.
The classified portions of the NIE is said to include "alternate"
judgments that reflect disagreements over whether the Syrian government
is directly involved in allowing Islamic militants to cross its border
into Iraq and the extent to which Iran is aware of and tolerating
al-Qaida activity in its territory. In giving the alternate assessments
prominent placement alongside the document's key judgments, U.S.
intelligence officials said they were responding to criticism of
previous NIE document ts in which dissenting views were often relegated
to footnote status and overlooked by policymakers.
Downplaying dissenting views was one of many major flaws of an NIE
produced before the U.S. invasion of Iraq in March, 2003, which
concluded erroneously that Iraq had stockpiles of chemical and
biological weapons and was pursuing the development of nuclear weapons.
The new NIE concludes with a discussion of scenarios that could push
Iraq into deeper chaos. The "triggering events" could include mass
sectarian killings, assassinations of major religious or political
figures, and Sunni defection from the government, it says.
"Should these events take place, they could spark an abrupt increase" in
violence and shift Iraq's course "from gradual decline to rapid
deterioration with grave humanitarian, political and security
consequences," according to the report.
It says "three prospective security paths might then emerge," including
a "de facto" partition of the country into sectarian groups; the
emergence of a "Shia strongman" seizing control of the country, and an
atomization of the nation into a "checkered pattern" of local militias
and groups.
Times staff writers Maura Reynolds and Noam N. Levey contributed to this
report.
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