October 4, 2006
Global Warming Will Alter Character of the Northeast
Leading Scientists Say How We Manage Emissions Today Will Dramatically
Affect Changes in Northeast Climate and Quality of Life
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Climate Change in the U.S. Northeast (PDF 3.1 MB)
ClimateChoices.org
CAMBRIDGE, MA, Oct. 4—Global warming is poised to substantially change
the climate in the Northeast if heat-trapping emissions are not
curtailed. The extent and impacts of the change depend on the choices
that governments, businesses and citizens make today. So concludes the
first study released today by the Northeast Climate Impacts Assessment
(NECIA), a collaboration between the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS)
and a team of independent scientists from universities across the
Northeast and the nation. To read the full report, visit
www.climatechoices.org/ne.
"The very notion of the Northeast as we know it is at stake," said Dr.
Cameron Wake, Research Associate Professor at the University of New
Hampshire's Climate Change Research Center and co-lead of the report.
"The near-term emissions choices we make in the Northeast and throughout
the world will help determine the climate and quality of life our
children and grandchildren experience."
The two-year study, Climate Change in the U.S. Northeast, employs
state-of-the-art science to project the regional consequences of
continued reliance on energy sources such as coal and oil that produce
high levels of heat-trapping emissions versus shifting to clean and
renewable energy to power our economy. The climate report is the first
NECIA product, with additional analyses underway to assess the impacts
of global warming on forests and agriculture, coastal and marine
resources, human health, and urban centers across the Northeast, as well
as options for mitigation and adaptation. A major synthesis report of
these findings is expected in early 2007.
While the two emissions scenarios lead to similar consequences in early
decades, the report finds the scenarios lead to starkly different
outcomes as children born today reach middle-age. The projections
analyze the impacts in 30 year increments: 2010-2039, 2040-2069, and
2070-2099.
Average annual temperatures. Under the higher emissions path,
temperatures are projected to increase 6.5-12.5°F by the end of the
century. An increase of 3.5-6.5°F is projected on the lower path.
Extreme heat days in cities. By the end of the century, many Northeast
cities can expect 30 or more days over 90°F under the lower emissions
scenario, and 60 or more days per year under the higher emissions
scenario. Currently, Northeast cities experience one or two days per
summer over 100ºF. This number could increase to three to nine days
under lower emissions and 14 to 28 days per year under higher emissions.
Less snow. Across the Northeast, the number of days with snow on the
ground will be reduced by 50 percent in the higher emissions scenario,
but only by 25 percent under the lower scenario. More winter
precipitation will fall as rain. Both projections will likely have
implications for winter recreation and tourism in the region.
Droughts. Droughts in the region are projected to be much more frequent
on the higher emissions path.
Extreme precipitation events. Under both emissions scenarios, more
frequent and more intense heavy rainfall events are expected.
"The Northeast's economy and lifestyle is built around the seasonal
cycles—pleasant summers, winter recreational opportunities, and iconic
fall foliage," said report co-lead Katharine Hayhoe, Research Associate
Professor in the Dept. of Geosciences at Texas Tech University.
"Fortunately, the worst consequences of global warming can be avoided by
reducing our emissions starting today."
Though global warming is a global problem, the Northeast has a central
role to play. Ranked against the nations of the world, the Northeast is
the seventh largest emitter of carbon dioxide, the most important
heat-trapping gas. Historically, the Northeast has been a leader in
clean air policy, directly influencing federal policy. As a recognized
innovator on many levels, from policy to technology, the Northeast
region is poised to lead the way on emissions reductions, nationally and
globally.
Reducing heat-trapping emissions is the most important step to curbing
the rate and extent of climate change. Increasing industrial and
building efficiency, switching to renewable energy sources such as wind,
and driving more efficient vehicles are clear steps the Northeast can take.
"Lowering emissions provides a tremendous opportunity for the
Northeast," said Dr. Peter Frumhoff, Director of the Global Environment
Program at UCS and Chair of the NECIA synthesis team. "We can use our
intellectual capital to lead the world in innovative technologies and
practices that we will all need to leave a healthy climate for future
generations."
For more details, visit www.climatechoices.org/ne.
Climate Change in the U.S. Northeast authors:
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