Nuclear Politics: Parallels between Iraq and Vietnam
Many people comment on the similarities between Iraq and Vietnam: a
quagmire, a war for money, a war for politics, a war for ideology.
But one very clear parallel is rarely mentioned and never emphasized.
In both cases, the U.S. was fighting in the backyard of a new nuclear
power with which America had not had formal diplomatic relations for
decades.
In the case of Vietnam, that new nuclear power was China: China
exploded its first atomic bomb in 1964 and, perhaps not
coincidentally, the Gulf of Tonkin incident leading to massive
escalation of the Vietnam War occurred the same year. China and the
United States had not had relations since the communist takeover in
1949, and had fought openly during the Korean War.
In the case of Iraq, that new nuclear power is Iran. The Iranians
have been working on developing their own nuclear weapons for decades,
to some extent in association with Pakistan and to some extent with
France and Russia. And, now, they are getting near the point of being
able to develop their own atomic weapons.
Why is this significant, in terms of the War in Iraq? Well, I think
it probably makes the U.S. government nervous to have a nation nuclear
armed if they have no diplomatic relations with America at all. It
makes the U.S. government feel that things are somewhat out of
control. Like during the Iranian hostage crisis, the cause of the
long-term breakdown in U.S.-Iranian relations. While in comparison to
911 or the Iraq War, the Iranian hostage crisis looks, in retrospect,
like a kind of frat-party prank, at the time it was taken very
seriously indeed.
As anyone familiar with human relations knows, one of the best ways to
force communication with someone is to create a crisis in their
immediate vicinity, that affects their practical interests. The
Vietnam War forced the Chinese into a degree of international
bellicosity that was uncharacteristic for them. Ultimately, in
1968-69 they engaged in a border war with the Soviet Union. The
Soviet Union threatened nuclear annihilation, the U.S. said no.
Suddenly, despite the Vietnam War, the Chinese needed the U.S. The
new nuclear power came under control.
The Iraq War has forced the Iranians into a degree of international
bellicosity that is uncharacteristic for them. Their open and rapid
development of atomic weapons has antagonized their traditional
friends like France and Germany, and they are now at risk of suffering
major sanctions from the entire international community. They cannot
afford this. Suddenly, the Iranians need the U.S. The new nuclear
power will come under control. And large-scale U.S. involvement in
Iraq will end very quickly. As it did in Vietnam.
.
|
