US envoy to Iraq: 'We have opened the Pandora's box'
· 80% of Americans think civil war likely
· Rumsfeld accuses Tehran of fomenting conflict
Julian Borger in Washington and Ewen MacAskill
Wednesday March 8, 2006
The Guardian
The US ambassador to Baghdad conceded yesterday that the Iraq invasion
had opened a Pandora's box of sectarian conflicts which could lead to a
regional war and the rise of religious extremists who "would make
Taliban Afghanistan look like child's play".
Zalmay Khalilzad broke with the Bush administration's generally upbeat
orthodoxy to present a stark profile of a volatile situation in danger
of sliding into chaos.
Mr Khalilzad told the Los Angeles Times Iraq had been pulled back from
the brink of civil war after the February 22 bombing of a Shia shrine in
Samarra. However, another similar incident would leave Iraq "really
vulnerable" to that happening, he said. "We have opened the Pandora's
box and the question is, what is the way forward?" He added that the
best approach was to build bridges between religious and ethnic communities.
An opinion poll published by the Washington Post and ABC News yesterday
suggested that most Americans agreed with Mr Khalilzad - with 80% saying
civil war in Iraq was likely, and more than a third that it was very
likely. More than half thought the US should start withdrawing its
troops, although only one in six wanted all troops to be withdrawn
immediately.
Hours after Mr Khalilzad made his remarks, the US defence secretary,
Donald Rumsfeld accused Iran of dispatching elements of its
Revolutionary Guard to stir trouble inside Iraq. Mr Rumsfeld said: "They
are currently putting people into Iraq to do things that are harmful to
the future of Iraq and we know it. And it is something that they, I
think, will look back on as having been an error in judgment." Mr
Khalilzad's intervention comes in a week when the two top US generals in
Iraq, John Abizaid and George Casey, are in Washington talking to the
Pentagon and the White House about how many troops they will need to
maintain stability in Iraq. With his remarks, Mr Khalilzad may have been
lobbying Washington to keep as many American soldiers there as possible.
The Bush administration is anxious to reduce the US military presence
for political and military reasons.
Mr Rumsfeld said sectarian violence had been exaggerated by the media.
When asked how that squared with Mr Khalilzad's view, he replied: "Well,
he's there. He's an expert. And he said what he said. I happen to have
not read it, but I am not going to try to disagree with it."
Nevertheless, it was clear yesterday that the Pentagon was anxious to
limit the impact of Mr Khalilzad's remarks. "If you take it from a year
ago to now, month to month, the attacks now are down compared to last
year," said General Peter Pace, chairman of the joint chiefs of staff.
Mr Khalilzad suggested the situation was so dangerous that without a
substantial US presence, a civil war could suck in other Arab countries
on the side of the Sunnis and Iran on the side of the Shias, creating
conditions for a regional conflict and disrupting global oil supplies.
"That would make Taliban Afghanistan look like child's play," he said.
Last night ***** Cheney, the US vice-president, stepped up pressure on
Iran over its nuclear ambitions. Mr Cheney told a meeting of the Israeli
lobby group, Aipac, "We will not allow Iran to have a nuclear weapon."
Mr Rumsfeld said there were 132,000 US troops in Iraq. Plans were in
place to shrink the presence to about 100,000. Downing Street said
yesterday no "strict timetable" had been laid down for British troops to
withdraw. A Foreign Office spokesman said: "I do not think we would be
quite as gloomy as Pandora's box and civil war." But if there were
further big sectarian attacks, things could get very difficult, he said.
Violence continued yesterday, with 16 killed and no sign of a coalition
government being formed. Ibrahim al-Jaafari, the Iraqi prime minister
and compromise candidate of the Shia parties, said he would not be
blackmailed into quitting.
A new video has been broadcast showing kidnapped British peace activist
Norman Kember, 74, and two Canadian colleagues. The fourth, an American,
was not shown. Bruce Kent, a friend of Mr Kember's, said: "My hopes have
gone up considerably. I am very pleased that there is a picture of him
only a week ago."
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