| Topic: |
Politics > Politics-USA |
| User: |
"Captain Compassion" |
| Date: |
12 Dec 2005 12:25:59 PM |
| Object: |
Poll: Broad Optimism in Iraq |
http://abcnews.go.com/International/PollVault/story?id=1389228
Poll: Broad Optimism in Iraq, But Also Deep Divisions Among GroupsOn
the Eve of the Elections, Most Iraqis Want Iraq To Stay Unified
Interviews for the poll were conducted Oct. 8 to Nov. 22, 2005, in
person, in Arabic and Kurdish, among a random national sample of 1,711
Iraqis age 15 and up. (Oxford Research International)
Analysis By GARY LANGER and JON COHEN
Dec. 12, 2005 — Surprising levels of optimism prevail in Iraq with
living conditions improved, security more a national worry than a
local one, and expectations for the future high. But views of the
country's situation overall are far less positive, and there are vast
differences in views among Iraqi groups — a study in contrasts between
increasingly disaffected Sunni areas and vastly more positive Shiite
and Kurdish provinces.
An ABC News poll in Iraq, conducted with Time magazine and other media
partners, includes some remarkable results: Despite the daily violence
there, most living conditions are rated positively, seven in 10 Iraqis
say their own lives are going well, and nearly two-thirds expect
things to improve in the year ahead.
Poll: Broad Optimism in Iraq, But Also Deep Divisions Among Groups
Castro Turns to Youth to Save Revolution
Where Things Stand
Surprisingly, given the insurgents' attacks on Iraqi civilians, more
than six in 10 Iraqis feel very safe in their own neighborhoods, up
sharply from just 40 percent in a poll in June 2004. And 61 percent
say local security is good — up from 49 percent in the first ABC News
poll in Iraq in February 2004.
Nonetheless, nationally, security is seen as the most pressing problem
by far; 57 percent identify it as the country's top priority. Economic
improvements are helping the public mood.
Average household incomes have soared by 60 percent in the last 20
months (to $263 a month), 70 percent of Iraqis rate their own economic
situation positively, and consumer goods are sweeping the country. In
early 2004, 6 percent of Iraqi households had cell phones; now it's 62
percent. Ownership of satellite dishes has nearly tripled, and many
more families now own air conditioners (58 percent, up from 44
percent), cars, washing machines and kitchen appliances.
Life In Iraq: Percent Saying Good
In Your Life 70%
For Country 44%
There are positive political signs as well. Three-quarters of Iraqis
express confidence in the national elections being held this week, 70
percent approve of the new constitution, and 70 percent — including
most people in Sunni and Shiite areas alike — want Iraq to remain a
unified country.
Interest in politics has soared.
Preference for a democratic political structure has advanced, to 57
percent of Iraqis, while support for an Islamic state has lost ground,
to 14 percent (the rest, 26 percent, chiefly in Sunni Arab areas,
favor a "single strong leader.")
Whatever the current problems, 69 percent of Iraqis expect things for
the country overall to improve in the next year — a remarkable level
of optimism in light of the continuing violence there. However, in a
sign of the many challenges ahead, this optimism is far lower in Sunni
Arab-dominated provinces, where just 35 percent are optimistic about
the country's future.
Negatives
Other views, moreover, are more negative: Fewer than half, 46 percent,
say the country is better off now than it was before the war. And half
of Iraqis now say it was wrong for U.S.-led forces to invade in spring
2003, up from 39 percent in 2004.
The number of Iraqis who say things are going well in their country
overall is just 44 percent, far fewer than the 71 percent who say
their own lives are going well. Fifty-two percent instead say the
country is doing badly.
There's other evidence of the United States' increasing unpopularity:
Two-thirds now oppose the presence of U.S. and coalition forces in
Iraq, 14 points higher than in February 2004. Nearly six in 10
disapprove of how the United States has operated in Iraq since the
war, and most of them disapprove strongly. And nearly half of Iraqis
would like to see U.S. forces leave soon.
Specifically, 26 percent of Iraqis say U.S. and other coalition forces
should "leave now" and another 19 percent say they should go after the
government chosen in this week's election takes office; that adds to
45 percent. Roughly the other half says coalition forces should remain
until security is restored (31 percent), until Iraqi security forces
can operate independently (16 percent), or longer (5 percent).
This survey was sponsored by ABC News with partners Time, the BBC, the
Japanese network NHK and the German newsmagazine Der Spiegel, with
fieldwork by Oxford Research International. It consists of in-person
interviews with a random national sample of 1,711 Iraqis from early
October through mid-November.
There were limitations on questions in the survey because of security
concerns; given the sectarian violence, Iraqis were not asked their
religious doctrine, Sunni or Shiite. Instead this analysis looks at
Sunni-dominated, Shia-dominated, mixed and Kurdish regions, using
previous data to categorize provinces.
Sunni and Shiite
Sunni Arabs, the favored group under Saddam Hussein, lost their status
with his overthrow and clearly resent it. In contrast Shiites, the
larger group, are embracing their newfound political clout despite the
terrorism that largely has targeted them. Kurds in the North (who are
Sunnis, but attitudinally far different from Sunni Arabs), the
strongest supporters of the United States by far, are the most
positive Iraqi group, by dint of the greater autonomy they've long
sought.
People in mixed areas of the country, notably the population center,
Baghdad, tend to view conditions much more favorably than those in
Sunni Arab areas, and generally more in line with views in the mainly
Shiite South.
Majorities in Shiite and Sunni Arab areas do share some views, such as
discontent with the presence of U.S. forces and — perhaps crucially
for Iraq's future — a desire to keep the country unified. But the
degree differs sharply — for example, 88 percent of those in Sunni
areas want a unified Iraq, compared with 56 percent in Shiite
provinces. And on other matters, including fundamental political
issues, Sunni/Shiite area views more directly conflict.
Confidence in this week's elections is far lower in Sunni Arab areas —
48 percent, compared with more than 80 percent in other groups — but,
given Sunnis' broad disaffection, that could be worse. More
threatening is that just 27 percent in Sunni areas approve of the
constitution, compared to more than eight in 10 Iraqis in the rest of
the country, Shiite, Kurdish and mixed areas alike.
Such gaps between these groups seem to represent Iraq's greatest
challenge. On issue after issue, from personal satisfaction to
security to political views, people in Sunni areas — about one in four
Iraqis — express vastly more negative views than their Shiite- or
Kurdish-area counterparts.
Just 11 percent of people in predominantly Sunni-Arab provinces, for
example, feel safe in their own neighborhoods, compared with eight in
10 Iraqis in other areas. People in mainly Sunni-Arab areas are far
less confident in the Iraqi government, army or police. They're half
as likely as those in mainly Shiite provinces to say their own lives
are going well and half as likely to expect things to improve in the
next year. While 53 percent of people in predominantly Shiite areas
say the country as a whole is doing well, a mere 9 percent of those in
mostly Sunni provinces agree.
Growing Caps
Rather than moving toward healing, the gaps between views in Sunni
areas versus the rest of Iraq have widened sharply since early 2004,
with attitudes worsening in Sunni areas while improving elsewhere.
While Iraqis in Shiite, mixed and Kurdish provinces all rate the
security situation, their job opportunities, and their family's
protection from crime more positively than they did 20 months ago,
those in Sunni provinces have grown decidedly more negative.
Similarly, while Iraqis' positive ratings of their lives overall look
stable (71 percent today versus 70 percent in 2004), beneath those
overall numbers is a 21-point improvement in Shiite areas — and a
26-point decline in the outlook in Sunni provinces.
The Sunni/Shiite gap has also grown on measures of confidence in key
Iraqi institutions. While people in mainly Shiite provinces are 22
points more likely to have faith in the Iraqi army than they were in
2004, in mainly Sunni areas confidence has fallen by 13 points; a
15-point gap has now grown to 50. The divide in views of police
similarly has increased by 23 points.
As noted, both Sunni and Shiite communities oppose the presence of
U.S. and coalition forces, but views on the subject in Shiite areas
have held steady over the past year and a half, while support for
coalition forces in Sunni areas has gone from minimal, 24 percent, to
near zero, 4 percent.
Anbar
Attitudes in Anbar — a Sunni Arab-dominated province that's been a
center of anti-coalition sentiment — are even more extreme than views
in other predominately Sunni areas. (Anbar includes Fallujah and the
provincial capital, Ramadi.)
Already lower than in non-Sunni areas, confidence in national
institutions craters in Anbar: Only three in 10 of those in Anbar have
confidence in the police, a scant one in 10 expresses confidence in
the new Iraqi army and a mere 4 percent approve of the Iraqi
government's performance.
The United States fairs even more poorly in Anbar, where a solitary 1
percent say the U.S.-led invasion was a good thing for Iraq, and not a
single respondent expresses confidence in the U.S. and U.K. occupation
forces.
While last year's survey identified strong anti-American sentiment in
Anbar, the unsettled security situation may help drive the low ratings
of Iraqi institutions (only religious leaders are more highly rated in
Anbar than elsewhere). Nearly half in Anbar call instability their
biggest problem — 17 points more than in other, already on-edge, Sunni
areas — and just 13 percent say their local security situation is
good. Only 28 percent expect security to improve.
The political outlook, however, could improve. Nearly six in 10 Anbar
residents have confidence that the elections will lead to a stable
government. They're also more likely than other Sunnis to be
interested in politics and to talk politics with others (more than
eight in 10 in Anbar say they do both). But only two in 10 Anbar
residents approve of the newly minted constitution.
Local Conditions
Across Iraq, most local conditions are rated positively — and more so
than in early 2004. This survey finds 10- to 13-point gains in ratings
of local crime protection, security and medical care, as well as in
the still-problematic areas of electric supply and jobs. (Even
including the substantial number of self-employed workers, Iraqis are
only about half as likely as Americans to hold jobs.)
Expectations for improvement in local conditions are all high — in the
mid-70s — and similar to their levels in early '04.
Still, there clearly is room for improvement in local conditions. Many
of the ratings are predominantly "good" rather than "very good"
(freedom of speech, after the repression of the Saddam years, is one
notable exception; schools are another.) On as basic an element as the
supply of clean water, for example, just 19 percent say theirs is very
good, and on electrical supply it's just 11 percent.
While most of these ratings have improved since February 2004, fewer
Iraqis now say these conditions are better than they were before the
war. That could reflect both dimmer recollection and an unwillingness
to give the war credit for positive change. The measure above, rating
conditions without relying on recollection, is the more reliable one.
Fuel, Power, Reconstruction
Electricity, taken for granted in the United States, is a continued
sore point. Fifty-four percent say it's bad in their area, although
that's down from 64 percent last year. More than half of Iraqis (again
54 percent) have electricity for no more than eight hours a day. Just
5 percent have it around the clock.
Ironically for an oil-rich nation, fuel supply also is a persistent
problem. Among Iraqis who drive, seven in 10 say they encounter fuel
lines. Just under half say they say they wait for hours; a quarter,
for days.
Two-thirds of Iraqis also report waiting lines for another necessity,
heating or cooking fuel. Four in 10 say they wait for hours; just
under three in 10, for days.
And despite the billions spent, reconstruction does not win broad
accolades. Just 18 percent of Iraqis say postwar reconstruction
efforts in their area have been "very effective." Instead 52 percent
say such efforts have been ineffective or, while needed, have not
occurred at all.
Few — just 6 percent — credit the United States with the main role in
reconstruction. More say it's the Iraqi people (12 percent) or the
Iraqi government (9 percent), but 37 percent say it's "no one."
Security
As noted, 63 percent feel very safe in their own neighborhood, up
sharply from an Oxford poll in June 2004. But again Sunni- and
Shia-area differences are profound. Eighty percent of people in Shiite
areas feel safe in their neighborhood; that dives to 11 percent in
predominantly Sunni provinces.
With 57 percent giving it top national priority, security dwarfs other
concerns. (Next, cited by 10 percent, is getting the United States out
of Iraq; 9 percent say it's rebuilding infrastructure, with other
options in lower single digits.) In another example of the majority's
positive outlook, 70 percent think security nationally will improve in
the next year. But that falls to 40 percent in Sunni areas (and 28
percent in Anbar).
Iraqis were asked in this survey what makes them feel unsafe, or if,
instead, they feel safe. In a notable improvement, 51 percent say they
feel safe — nearly double what it was in June 2004.
Among the half of Iraqis who do feel unsafe, the main reason given, by
far, is terrorism. And many in this "unsafe" group "very often" take a
range of steps: avoiding U.S. forces (67 percent), avoiding
checkpoints (52 percent), avoiding police and government buildings (47
percent), and being careful what they say (43 percent).
Top security-related priorities for the future are fighting ordinary
crime and stopping attacks on civilians and the Iraqi police or army.
Stopping attacks on coalition forces comes in much lower.
Confidence
Despite the growing gap between Sunni and Shiite provinces, confidence
in some institutions has risen overall, particularly confidence in the
Iraqi Army, up from 39 percent in November 2003 to 67 percent now; and
in the police, up from 45 percent to 68 percent (but stable since last
year).
Confidence in Public Institutions: Percent Confident
Police 68%
Iraqi Army 67%
Religious Leaders 67%
Natl. Govt. 53%
Ministeries in Baghdad 45%
Local Governate 42%
Local Leaders 41%
U.N. 31%
Political Parties 25%
U.S./U.K. Forces 18%
Election
As noted, 76 percent of Iraqis express confidence that this week's
elections will produce a stable government, although fewer, 42
percent, are very confident of it. Interest in politics has soared —
39 percent in an Oxford survey in November 2003, 54 percent in
February 2004 and 69 percent now. But there's been an 11-point dip
since June 2004 in people talking about politics, in what may reflect
increased caution in light of the Iraqi insurgency.
The election itself looks wide open, at least from the perspective of
these October-to-November interviews. Thirty-seven percent of Iraqis
said they hadn't decided which party to support (but were planning to
vote). Those with a preference were scattered among a wide range of
political parties.
Support for former Prime Minister Ayad Allawi's Wifaq National
Movement, or Iraqi National Accord Movement, was 9 percent; the
Kurdish PUK, 9 percent; the Shiite-affiliated Islamic al-Dawa Party, 8
percent. Parties people would "never vote for" include the
now-outlawed al-Baath (9 percent) and al-Dawa (7 percent).
National leaders with the greatest trust include the current prime
minister, Ibrahim al-Jaafari (15 percent), Allawi (15 percent) and
Kurdish leader Jalal Talabani (10 percent), with others in single
digits. But al-Jaffari also comes up as No. 1 on the don't-trust
at-all list, at 12 percent. Such is politics.
Democracy
As in so many of these issues, a closer look at views on Iraq's future
system of government may give pause to policy makers there (and in the
United States as well).
Overall, as noted, 57 percent of Iraqis prefer democracy to either
strongman rule or an Islamic state. But preference for democracy falls
under 50 percent among people in Shiite areas (45 percent) and Sunni
areas (38 percent) alike. Democracy is boosted to a majority by its
support in Kurdish provinces and in mixed Shiite/Sunni areas, chiefly
the capital, Baghdad.
Women
Finally, this survey asked about women's rights in Iraq, and found a
broad range of responses: On one hand 99 percent of Iraqis support
women voting or working as medical doctors; on the other fewer than
half say a woman should be able to serve as president; and fewer
still, 38 percent, say women should be eligible to serve as an elected
village or town chief, known as a mukhtar.
These views, surprisingly in the less-tolerant cases, are almost
identical among men and women. The differences instead, as in so much
in Iraq, appear in the regions. In Kurdish areas, 76 percent say a
woman should be able to be elected as mukhtar. In Shiite-dominated
areas it's 56 percent. But that falls to 32 percent in mixed
Shiite-Sunni areas, and bottoms out at just 6 percent in mainly Sunni
provinces.
The range is similar for other offices. Seventy-one percent of Kurds
say a woman should be able to serve as president; in Sunni areas this
dives to 21 percent. And it goes lower: In Anbar province, the
conservative center of Sunni discontent, just 8 percent would accept a
woman as president of Iraq.
Methodology
This poll was conducted for ABC News, Time magazine, the BBC, NHK and
Der Spiegel by Oxford Research International. Interviews were
conducted Oct. 8 to Nov. 22, 2005, in person, in Arabic and Kurdish,
among a random national sample of 1,711 Iraqis age 15 and up. The
results have a 2.5-point error margin. Details of the survey
methodology are available upon request.
This analysis examines regions where different groups dominate, based
primarily on data from the February 2004 Iraq poll. Predominantly
Shiite Arab provinces were identified as Basra, Kerbala, Missan,
Najaf, Qadissiyah and Wassit, all in the South. Predominantly Sunni
Arab provinces are Anbar, Diyala, Ninewa and Salah Al-Din. Mixed
provinces are Babil, Baghdad and Tameem, and predominantly Kurdish
provinces in the North are Dokuhk, Erbil and Suleymaniya. The two
remaining provinces, Muthanna and Thi-Qar, both in the mainly Shiite
South, were not selected in the random-sampling process in this
survey.
--
"The president and I cannot prevent certain politicians from losing
their memory, or their backbone, but we're not going to sit by and
let them rewrite history." -- ***** Cheney 11/16/2005
"War is God's way of teaching Americans geography" -- Ambrose Bierce
"America is a vast conspiracy to make you happy." -- John Updike
"Long term commitment in relationships is only necessary because it takes
so damn long to raise children. Marriage may well be some kind of trick
to keep the males around beyond sexual satiation." -- Captain Compassion
"Progress is the increasing control of the environment by life.
--Will Durant
Joseph R. Darancette
daranc@NOSPAMverizon.net
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| User: "Bret Cahill" |
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| Title: Re: Poll: Broad Optimism in Iraq |
12 Dec 2005 12:46:03 PM |
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Is there even ONE rightard who takes the Iraqi "democratization" effort
seriously enough to discuss the fine points of the Iraqi constitution?
Kennedy was right. The quagmire idea was hatched in Texas and sold to
too clever by half Republicons as a way of getting elected.
Bret Cahill
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| User: "Mike Flannigan" |
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| Title: Re: Poll: Broad Optimism in Iraq |
12 Dec 2005 01:20:25 PM |
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"Bret Cahill" <BretCahill@aol.com> wrote in message
news:1134413163.553875.234850@z14g2000cwz.googlegroups.com...
Is there even ONE rightard who takes the Iraqi "democratization" effort
seriously enough to discuss the fine points of the Iraqi constitution?
Kennedy was right. The quagmire idea was hatched in Texas and sold to
too clever by half Republicons as a way of getting elected.
Actually, it was the Iraq is Vietnam, our solders are akin to Nazi's, we
can't win, Bush lied, our solders are terrorizing women and children idea
that was hatched by the DNC in order to see to it the US loses so democrats
can get elected. Brain-dead sap.
.
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| User: "SHb" |
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| Title: Re: Poll: Broad Optimism in Iraq |
18 Dec 2005 05:49:54 PM |
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""Actually, it was the Iraq is Vietnam, our solders are akin to Nazi's, we
can't win, Bush lied, our solders are terrorizing women and children idea
that was hatched by the DNC in order to see to it the US loses so democrats
can get elected. Brain-dead sap. """
Do not forget the Biden ~Anonymous Generals in Iraq~ who he says disagree
with Bush and the military leaders on troop strength and strategy, Howard
Deans
The Pelosi puppet Murtha bad mouthing our military (army is broken) and
constant surrender scream, the Press's elevation of Sheehan to be a focus,
press focus on US Soldiers' deathcount instead of any good accomplishments.
etc etc..
This is now the Third defeat for the Dems after Iraquis have voted three
times now, this time being the highest turnout across the board.
So new talking points are arisng for the obstructionist dems to halt any
administration success or hurrah.
"Mike Flannigan" <mflannigan@jam.rr.com> wrote in message
news:q1knf.9022$MA2.6924@bignews6.bellsouth.net...
"Bret Cahill" <BretCahill@aol.com> wrote in message
news:1134413163.553875.234850@z14g2000cwz.googlegroups.com...
Is there even ONE rightard who takes the Iraqi "democratization" effort
seriously enough to discuss the fine points of the Iraqi constitution?
Kennedy was right. The quagmire idea was hatched in Texas and sold to
too clever by half Republicons as a way of getting elected.
Actually, it was the Iraq is Vietnam, our solders are akin to Nazi's, we
can't win, Bush lied, our solders are terrorizing women and children idea
that was hatched by the DNC in order to see to it the US loses so
democrats can get elected. Brain-dead sap.
.
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