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Portland's Mayor Tom Potter has called a news conference Monday to
announce whether he'll run for re-election. The long-awaited decision
will set off a chain reaction of political calculation inside and
outside City Hall.

Potter has been saying he would decide before his 67th birthday
Wednesday. The uncertainty has kept a small army of political hopefuls
on the edge of their seats.

As a popular incumbent, Potter could be tough to beat, and that could
keep some high-profile politicos out of the race.

That list of possible challengers includes Commissioner Sam Adams and
real estate developer Bob Ball, who have expressed interest in running
for mayor at some point. Others who have been mentioned as possible
candidates but have so far pooh-poohed the idea publicly include Metro
Council President David Bragdon, Portland lawyer and two-time City
Council candidate Nick Fish, streetcar guru and former Commissioner
Charlie Hales, and Roy Jay, businessman and African American Chamber of
Commerce of Oregon president.

If Potter decides not to run, any or all of the above could jump into
the race. Many political gossips consider Adams the favorite. If he runs
for mayor, he couldn't also run for his commission seat, which is up in
2008 (along with Commissioner Randy Leonard's seat).

That would mean one semi-open mayor's race and one very open commission
race, at a time when Portland is headed into projects that will
literally shape the city for the next 30 years.

Potter's popularity took a blow last spring when voters trounced his
proposed charter change to create a strong mayor form of government.
Adams and Commissioners Erik Sten and Randy Leonard opposed the charter
change, and many of the neighborhood leaders and grass-roots activists
who backed Potter's campaign in 2004 actively worked against his
proposed reforms.

Political consultant Mark Wiener, who worked on the anti-charter-change
campaign (and for Adams in the past), said he thought Potter's
popularity may not be as strong as people think.

"His support may be a mile wide and an inch deep," Wiener said.

So what will Potter do? The conventional wisdom leans toward retirement,
but there are 3.2 million theories flying around City Hall and no one
seems to know -- except for Potter (and presumably a few close aides)
and nobody's talking.

One veteran City Hall watcher who thinks Potter may run again is
lobbyist Len Bergstein, who said the mayor's focus on getting citizens
more involved in government, rather than on concrete programs, makes it
hard to tell whether he believes he accomplished what he set out to do
-- the usual way politicians measure success in office.

"That's why the crystal ball is so foggy; the normal rules don't apply,"
Bergstein said.

Two candidates for mayor have filed to participate in the city's
publicly financed election program: former candidate Jeff Taylor, a
mortgage broker, and Beryl McNair. Charles Lewis, owner of Portland Duck
Boats tour company, is a candidate for Adams' council seat and also has
filed to take part in the program.

If Potter bows out and Adams runs for mayor, the open City Council seat
will shine like a beacon in the night for other potential candidates,
such as neighborhood activist Chris Smith; Amanda Fritz, who ran for the
council last time; and John Branam, development director for Portland
Public Schools.

"I've been waiting all summer," Smith said.

The first day candidates can formally file to run for mayor or City
Council is Thursday.